Having watched many Deal or no Deal programmes where we have seen people deal way too early and way too late what is becoming apparent is that it is good to deal late in the game, but not too late to achieve the best return. In my view, the optimum time to deal is usually when there are five boxes left, but of course this is not always the case. I discuss the statistical basis of this, based on various scenarios in terms of the odds in my webpage: Deal or no deal: How to play smart I would be interested to know what others think.

That page is a good analysis of the game. I agree that the optimum approch to the game is based on the mathematical probabilities that are presented to the player.

However,the answer to your original question depends on the players financial position.
If your financial situation is not an issue and big money is still in play then it is obviously no deal. If your finacial position is a bit dubious, as it clearly has been to some players, then it might be correct to deal when the odds are in yours favour, but the money offered is to all intents and purposes in your pocket, and will help sort out any problems you might have.

I kinda of agree with both answers for both their reasons and would like to add my thoughts....

I get frustrated that people deal for less that £5k....because (mostly) there is a proberbility that there is a better deal left to be had....

My bugbare is that if you need money of £5k or less (and for all good reasons) then going on a quiz show is not the thing to do, especially when you have to stay away from work/ family etc for weeks on end... therefore make it worth your while...

Myself and my wife watch most nights (late evening, after all baby work done !) and we never agree on when to deal....she always looks at the money offered and virtually rejects outright the board and therefore anything remotley good, 4k+ says deal...the comment received when I ask why ? is 'they always lose it!'.... to me that is because her nature is to remember the big losers and mine the big winners...

Finally, it is a natual thing to do, to chase a previous offer, i.e once offered £8k to always gamble when receiving low offers to at least back to this point of £8k, just like chasing your money at the horses...

I say have two rules in your head when going on the show.. (would love to)...

1. Have a lower limit where although the money is nice, you would be prepared to lose it / gamble it as you came on for more than this...

2. Dont be tempted by chasing...

and....(I know I said 2, but hay!)

3. Don't ask anyone else, as it's not them who is being asked...only you...

Good luck everyone....
The Padmaster...

Agreed, you have to accept some element of risk, as is often said, it is a once in a lifetime shot.

Which is more disappointing? Not having taken the risk and discovering that you would have walked away with a lot more money had you gone on, or to take a big risk, and end up going away with next to nothing?

I'd rather take the risk - at least then you get the excitement of the game and a memorable show, even if it goes wrong. (Although it depends how big a risk you're talking about! Give me an offer of £150,000 on a 1p/10p/50p/£1/£250,000 board, and I might change my mind.)