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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:23 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: The most extreme risk you'd take
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The only vivid dream I have had of playing Deal for myself was a 1p/£100,000 finish with box 2 being left to the end (it being my lucky number), and I was offered a fair offer with the 1p in play (it was definitely more than £15,000 but I can't remember exactly how much). I no dealt and was offered a swap, and I would (obviously) take the swap.

I've never found out the ending though as I was woken up! :shock:

Moral of what I said: if the gap between the last two remaining sums of money is considerably huge, then if I had kept my lucky number to the end, I would go for it and I'd take the swap the Banker would have obviously given me. If just an ordinary number to me was left, I'd deal.

You see, even after watching Maria last week, ever since watching Gaz win it last year, I have seen the £100,000 being the most important sum of money in the game. It being a huge sum of money, and the £250,000 being far too isolated (in terms of monatary gap between the others), even with the other large amounts still in play.

All I'd ever say if I lost the £250,000 would be that it makes playing the game a lot less dangerous and if any damage were to happen to the game, I wouldn't suffer anywhere near as much.

The most contradicting thing about it though is that if any other big sum of money was left at the end instead of the £100,000 it would mean an instant deal for me at the last offer, regardless of a lucky number being kept to the end. It's just that one amount that would keep me in the game to the end!


What would everyone else's risk limit be?

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:35 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Weirdly, the £100,000 is a sum of money I'd be more likely to gamble for than any other - but it wouldn't be nearly as cut-and-dried as that, because of my statistical approach to the game!

I would turn down £15,000 on a 1p/£100,000 finish for sure though, whereas I would take it instantly with £50,000 as the red, not sure about £75,000.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:37 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject:
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I think the offer was just under £20,000 for me, so you'd probably have snubbed it, as did I!

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:37 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

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I don't know but I'd take calculated risks in the game. I'd have no dealt Sarah's 17.5K offer for the 100K but might have dealt at 5 box anyway. :?


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Similarly, I'd have gone at five-box or not at all in both of the games that led to £100k box wins... I'd have needed £10,000 more to even consider each of the final two offers had I got there, but the five-box offers would more than likely have taken me out! Amazing what a 30% chance of disaster (three blues in the final five) does to me, whereas with a 10% chance of disaster (two blues in the final five) I'm a hell of a lot more likely to plough on!

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 12:35 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: The most extreme risk you'd take
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Big-Davey wrote:
The only vivid dream I have had of playing Deal for myself was a 1p/£100,000 finish with box 2 being left to the end (it being my lucky number), and I was offered a fair offer with the 1p in play (it was definitely more than £15,000 but I can't remember exactly how much). I no dealt and was offered a swap, and I would (obviously) take the swap.

I've never found out the ending though as I was woken up! :shock:

Moral of what I said: if the gap between the last two remaining sums of money is considerably huge, then if I had kept my lucky number to the end, I would go for it and I'd take the swap the Banker would have obviously given me. If just an ordinary number to me was left, I'd deal.

You see, even after watching Maria last week, ever since watching Gaz win it last year, I have seen the £100,000 being the most important sum of money in the game. It being a huge sum of money, and the £250,000 being far too isolated (in terms of monatary gap between the others), even with the other large amounts still in play.

All I'd ever say if I lost the £250,000 would be that it makes playing the game a lot less dangerous and if any damage were to happen to the game, I wouldn't suffer anywhere near as much.

The most contradicting thing about it though is that if any other big sum of money was left at the end instead of the £100,000 it would mean an instant deal for me at the last offer, regardless of a lucky number being kept to the end. It's just that one amount that would keep me in the game to the end!


What would everyone else's risk limit be?


Well we finally saw it in actual gameplay today - thought I'd bump this to see if today's game would affect anyone's original opinion.

For me, Ajay's game would have seen me become a proud £100,000 winner.

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 12:36 am    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

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As would I I've always said a poor offer of 20K or less there would be a rock solid no deal. 25/26K+ would get me out though.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 12:54 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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I too would have gambled, but my always-swap principle would have SPECTACULARLY backfired!!

A few grand more would have taken me out though. Actually I'm not entirely sure I'd have gone for it at £19,500...

Basically I'd have to think what amount is half as useful to me as £100,000. I think that amount is just shy of £25,000.

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SrWilson

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 1:37 am    Author: SrWilson    Post subject:
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I would have gambled today and won 100K due to my never swap policy.

Biggest gamble i'd take would be 1p vs 250K IF THE OFFER was derisory as in below 55 - 60 grand.

I would Gamble on that I'm guranteed in to the hall of fame whichever outcome lol.

Either 12th member of 1p club

The biggest Crash into the 1p club from a 40odd k offer

or second 250K winner

hopefully the end one lol :D

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rico7

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:20 am    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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It's difficult to know what you would do in that scenario, but the stigma of joining the 1p club would mean that anything £15,000 and above would probably be deal territory for me with 1p and £100,000 left in active play.


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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:46 am    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject:

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If I had a low red like £3,000 and either the 100k or 250k then I would most probably go on, unless the offer was so generous then I might have to deal.

If I take Laura's game of £250,000 vs £3,000 where she was offered £45,000, for me that would be a no deal, even if the Banker offered £50,000 again I would no deal that.

To get me out of the chair at that stage it would take an offer of over £80k at least.


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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:14 am    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

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KP wrote:
I too would have gambled, but my always-swap principle would have SPECTACULARLY backfired!!



Do you always swap or just when the offer is insulting?
I think mainly I wouldn't swap but would do it a few times. i've warmed to it over season 3.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:57 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Always swap. If the offer's not insulting there's a high chance I'm dealing it anyway. ;)

It used to be just 'when the offer is insulting', but I've changed that. Now the reasoning behind 'always swap' is 'it's the equivalent of picking my own box at the start of the game'. As such, I'd take an opening-offer swap and not swap the new one away.

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daniel123

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 12:39 pm    Author: daniel123    Post subject:
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NEVER SWAP. Stupid thing to do. As proved by Swappy Barbara.

And the biggest risk I'd take...1p/£250,000 and the offer is below my target. Which is always the highest value in play.

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wokoman88

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 3:10 pm    Author: wokoman88    Post subject:

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daniel123 wrote:
NEVER SWAP. Stupid thing to do. As proved by Swappy Barbara.

And the biggest risk I'd take...1p/£250,000 and the offer is below my target. Which is always the highest value in play.


I'm sure Maria, Jon G et al would beg to differ.


The biggest risk I'd take... I would gamble on a low red, possibly even a high blue v £250k if the offer was derisory like Laura's, (though if the offer was that low, it might not be that much of a risk :D )

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:02 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject:

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I would risk anything below average with £20k upwards with the £250,000.

I keep having one nagging dream of me being left with £50,000 and the £250,000. My offer is always £140,000.

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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:01 am    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject:

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At 1p club/£100,000 finish the offer may be £12,500 just like Fadli to No Deal and become member of the 1p club.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 1:02 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject:
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Fadil had £35,000 at the end though, not £100,000 :)

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corncrake

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:42 pm    Author: corncrake    Post subject:
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It's a question you can split up into each round. I would be much more likely to deal at two box when a blue/low red is involved with a higher sum because it is hard to no deal an offer with a 50% chance of winning a blue. However, if the lowest sum at two box was £10,000 or higher, I would be much more likely to decline the offer because the worst case finish is still a fortune.

At 5 box I would be likely to deal as well, but only because of the banker's recent two box offers being quite low. Anything before 5 box I would more than likely decline because I would like to play more of the game.

So in answer to the original question, 'what would be the biggest risk you would take', I would say declining anything under £100,000 on a £10,000/£250,000 finish. Power 5 / Power 5 finishes are instant no deals for me regardless of the offer so I wouldn't necessarily call it a 'massive risk'.


Last edited by corncrake on Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:43 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject:
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Recently I've been leaning more towards No Dealing to the end. But it sounds really stupid to say this, even with 1p in contrast, if the £100,000 was in play at the end, I would be very tempted to play on, especially if I left box 2 to the end/I had box 2 on the table.

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