If someone had the power 5 left at the end... what do you think the banker would offer? What do the statistical models suggest would be a sensible offer?

I've just been looking back at Brenda's game, and I am really surprised at the 5-box offer - £84,000 without the £100,000 in play... surely that can't be a genuine offer? The Banker would never offer 100% of the mean in active play, surely?

The 5 boxes that gave the offer of £84k were £250k, £75k, £50k, £35k, £10k I think... £84k is the average of these 5 boxes... surely no-one would no-deal such an offer? Well okay, maybe wakey would Anyway, I'm interested to hear what anyone might think.

Hmmm...with all the Power Five left and nothing else, I reckon he'd offer...£91,000. Which I would probably turn down. (I'd have taken Brenda's £84,000, though.)

He has been known to make above mean offers... take Madie's game, for example, and even Jennifer's offer, whilst not above the mean, was ridiculously high (£120k with £750 and £250k left). He has been known to offer on the mean offers... take Bianca with £1k and £3k left, he offered £2k.

The odds of this happening are in the region of 1 in 26,334. The mean value of those five boxes is £102,000, but the banker would not offer that much. The banker's proveout offer of £84,000 in Brenda's game after she had dealt at £57,000 is unrealistically high. With The Power 5 still left in open play, you would expect to see an offer of £76,000, teasingly just above the three lowest amounts, but statistically I would place it at £87,000, the amount that Lance won.

Perhaps I didn't make my orginial post that clear... Brenda's £84k offer would have been 100% of the mean at the 5-box stage. I'm sure this would never happen in active play - the only time where the banker goes close to 100% of the mean is at the 2-box stage.

What about the banker's £3k / £4 offers with a blue and the £20k in play?!`

The banker will go close to the mean with two boxes where the sums of money are close to each other, such as £10,000 and £15,000 but when they are very different, then he will usually offer much less than the mean. I think the kind of offer Jennifer got of £120,000 with the 250K and £750 left is very unlikely to be repeated, especially when you consider that David was offered £50,000 less than that, despite having £10,000 left with the £250,000.

I think the "no-lose" scenario is the normal one when the Banker will make close to the mean offers.

Normally that only happens at the last pair, when you have two close together values or a situation where the player is expected to gamble whatever the offer. A final five with low spread of amounts is very rare though, and if it were to happen I think he would offer close to the mean.

Um, do you mean, £3k / £4k offers with four blues and the £20k in play? I'm not talking about offers at the 2-box stage, I'm more interested in any mean / close-to-mean offers at the 5-box stage. Especially in active play.