Thanks Daniel for those stats!

There have now been 13 contestants who have dealt at the third offer in the history of Deal Or No Deal, but only 3 have been Outright Player Wins: (OPW=Outright Player Win)

January 4th 2006 Jenni Dealt at £26,000 In Box: £50,000
January 26th Andrew Dealt at £14,000 In Box: £10
February 24th Beryl Dealt at £3,100 In Box: £15,000
March 14th Flash Dealt at £6,000 In Box: £5,000
April 5th Johnnie Dealt at £8,300 In Box: £100,000
May 23rd Lofty Dealt at £18,000 In Box: 50p
June 5th James Dealt at £14,700 In Box: £750 OPW
June 27th Melanie Dealt at £30,000 In Box: £100 OPW
July 13th Lynda B Dealt at £20,000 In Box: £50
September 19th Barbara Dealt at £13,000 In Box: £50
September 23rd Michaela Dealt at £24,000 In Box: £5,000
October 22nd Harry Dealt at £20,000 In Box: £10 OPW
October 29th Jane Dealt at £27,000 In Box: £10,000

Cheers Rico, interesting stuff.

You're welcome James, glad you enjoy it!

HIGHEST FIRST ROUND OFFERS UPDATED:

October 2006 holds the record for having the most first round offers in excess of £10,000, 8 currently. These are the highest first round offers in the history of DOND in chronological offer (Qualification: £9,000 or more) Matt's first offer of £20,000 after he took out 5 blues is currently the highest:

Dec 9th 2005 Kai £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £7,500 (Deal)
January 28th 2006 Marie £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £4,000 (Deal)
March 29th Aaron £15,000 Contestant's Winnings: £25,000 (Deal)
April 24th Clare £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £1,500 (Deal)
April 28th Hilary £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £50,000 (in box)
May 1st Francesca £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (Deal)
May 3rd Pat M £9,500 Contestant's Winnings: £1,000 (in box)
May 17th Sarah £9,005 Contestant's Winnings: £6,000 (Deal)
May 23rd Lofty £9,400 Contestant's Winnings: £18,000 (Deal)
May 27th Mark £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £5,000 (in box)
June 3rd Jainie £9,100 Contestant's Winnings: £31,000 (Deal)
June 13th Daz £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £19,900 (Deal)
June 16th Ron £9,200 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (in box)
June 17th Debbie £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £15,000 (Deal)
June 17th Lee £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £10,001 (Deal)
June 26th Ryan £12,000 Contestant's Winnings: £15,500 (Deal)
June 27th Melanie £9,100 Contestant's Winnings: £30,000 (Deal)
July 3rd Paul £13,000 Contestant's Winnings: £32,000 (Deal)
July 5th Linda E £14,000 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (Deal)
July 10th Pierre £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £7,000 (Deal)
August 30th Lance £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £87,000 (Deal)
September 6th Paul £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £9,500 (Deal)
September 15th Joseph £12,000 Contestant's Winnings: £13,000 (Deal)
September 19th Barbara £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £13,000 (Deal)
September 20th Khanny £16,000 Contestant's Winnings: £5,000 (in box)
September 25th Billy £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £50,000 (Deal)
September 26th Matt £20,000 Contestant's Winnings: £5,000 (in box)
September 28th Billy £10,063.79 Contestant's Winnings: £19,990 (Deal)
October 2nd Pat £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £22,000 (Deal)
October 3rd Mark P £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £22,000 (Deal)
October 10th Rosy £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £15,000 (Deal)
October 12th Ray £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £18,001 (Deal)
October 13th Susannah £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £8,500 (Deal)
October 17th Peter £11,111 Contestant's Winnings: £3,500 (Deal)
October 20th Lisa £12,000 Contestant's Winnings: £100 (in box)
October 22nd Harry £13,000 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (Deal)
October 29th David J £17,000 Contestant's Winnings: £70,000 (Deal)
November 3rd Howard £18,000 Contestant's Winnings: £1 (in box)

As can be seen, the first offers have increased significantly in recent times compared to the early days of Deal Or No Deal.

CONTESTANTS BOX STATS FOR SHOWS 1-295 AND 235-295

Here are the stats for the number of times each financial amount has been in the contestant's box since Deal Or No Deal started on October 31st 2005.
Show 1 to Show 295 6th November 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)


1p 10 £1,000 6
10p 15 £3,000 12
50p 14 £5,000 20
£1 18 £10,000 18
£5 14 £15,000 11
£10 18 £20,000 18
£50 12 £35,000 9
£100 16 £50,000 12
£250 13 £75,000 14
£500 12 £100,000 13
£750 13 £250,000 8


Here are the stats for the number of times each financial amount has been in the contestant's box since the summer break:
Show 235 of August 28th 2006 to show 295 of 6th November 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)


1p 3 £1,000 1
10p 2 £3,000 2
50p 0 £5,000 8
£1 2 £10,000 5
£5 2 £15,000 1
£10 3 £20,000 2
£50 3 £35,000 1
£100 4 £50,000 3
£250 1 £75,000 7
£500 3 £100,000 4
£750 5 £250,000 0

£250,000 Watch:

£250,000 not on the table:

Amount of shows at time of posting : 94

The odds of it not being on the table for the above amount of shows: 1.32%

I think Katy's going to have it. That's not a spoiler or anything, just a feeling I have...

(I realise it's probably a load of *beep* and she'll probably take it out in the first box, but if I didn't publicly make my prediction and she did end up having it, I'd never forgive myself...)

I think Steve has it.

I think that Mary, Alan, Nalini and Margaret will have it.

Let's look at a hypothetical scenario:

Five Boxes Left:

50p £5,000
£15,000
£20,000
£35,000



The banker offers £13,000 to deal.
Deal Or No Deal?

Let's look at the 10 possible 2 box combinations left after 3 boxes are opened, each a 10% chance, and possible offers:

50p £5,000

Banker's Offer: £1,500

50p £15,000

Banker's Offer: £5,000

50p £20,000

Banker's Offer: £6,700

50p £35,000

Banker's Offer: £11,000

£5,000 £15,000

Banker's Offer: £9,000

£5,000 £20,000

Banker's Offer: £11,500

£5,000 £35,000

Banker's Offer: £18,000

£15,000 £20,000

Banker's Offer: £17,500

£15,000 £35,000

Banker's Offer: £24,000

£20,000 £35,000

Banker's Offer: £27,000

Obviously if the contestant goes to the end, no dealing all the way they have a 60% chance of increasing on the £13,000 offer. At the two box stage, there would likely be 6 offers that decrease, and 4 that increase, but it is worth remembering that the banker usually offers less than the mean at this stage of the game.

Conclusion: Would you be feeling lucky enough to no deal?

You don't need to be lucky to no deal, the percent of an increase is enough for anyone to no deal.

That's one of those strange situations - there's no complete disaster scenario as you will always keep a red in play if you go on, but then again the upside potential is very limited - you can't even triple your money, and only a 10% chance of doubling it at the next offer. And there's the potential for the Banker to be very mean with the offer if the 50p is still there.

The fact it's below the median may well tempt me to no deal, but it's a tough one to call.

I'd definitely go on there...you either take out the 50p and are guaranteed a decent amount, or you leave the 50p and, well, have a chance of winning 50p!!!

I would No Deal

I think I'd go on.
If £5,000 goes I'll be happy whatever whatever happens!

I think the offers quoted for any of the pairs with 50p left in sound generous to me, and I would deal - only if you keep in two of the 15k/20k/35k combo, or 35k and 5k are you guaranteed more!

CONTESTANTS BOX STATS FOR SHOWS 1-302 AND 235-302

Here are the stats for the number of times each financial amount
has been in the contestant's box since Deal Or No Deal
started on October 31st 2005.
Show 1 to Show 302 13th November 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)


1p 10 £1,000 6
10p 16 £3,000 12
50p 15 £5,000 18
£1 19 £10,000 18
£5 15 £15,000 11
£10 18 £20,000 19
£50 12 £35,000 9
£100 16 £50,000 14
£250 13 £75,000 14
£500 13 £100,000 13
£750 13 £250,000 8


Here are the stats for the number of times each financial amount
has been in the contestant's box since the summer break:
Show 235 of August 28th 2006 to show 302 of 13th November 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)


1p 3 £1,000 1
10p 3 £3,000 2
50p 1 £5,000 6
£1 3 £10,000 5
£5 3 £15,000 1
£10 3 £20,000 3
£50 3 £35,000 1
£100 4 £50,000 5
£250 1 £75,000 7
£500 4 £100,000 4
£750 5 £250,000 0

The 1p has only been on the table 3 times this season (Sharron, Helen and Gaz)

Thanks Wakey, you're right, I've adjusted accordingly.