£250,000 Watch:

£250,000 not on the table:

Amount of shows at time of posting : 100

The odds of it not being on the table for the above amount of shows: 0.95%

And i'm sure the £5,000 hasn't been on the table 8 times... 6 seems realistic.

hold on:

Nick D.
Maddie
Joseph
Micheala
Elizabeth
Karen

Unless you are counting Matt and Khanny's swaps...

I did count Matt and Khanny's swaps but to be consistent with the stats for 1-235 I will use data that indicates at all times the contestant's box on the table prior to the swap.

Because if you were doing the 5k's like that, you'd need to include Barbara's 1k and Valerie's 10k.

Usually, about 2 out of very 3 times, the banker's offer goes up from the 8 box stage to the 5 box stage. But what if you only have 2 large amounts and 6 small ones, say £1,000 down. That is a different story which usually does not work out for the contestant. Is it worth no dealing with a board like this and an offer of say, £13,000?

You have these 8 boxes left:

1p £1,000
50p £50,000
£5 £75,000
£250
£500

The odds in picking the next 3 boxes:

Your odds of taking out the highest 3 numbers: 1.8%
Your odds of taking out both the £50,000 and the £75,000: 9.3%
Your odds of leaving both the £50,000 and the £75,000 intact: 36%

When contestants are giving advice at the 8 box stage with a board like this, quite often they will rightly point out that taking out the two largest numbers will destroy the game. However in a game when you only have two large amounts left, you only have to take out one of them, and the banker's offer will most likely go down and the odds are that you will do that. Then faced with a situation of 5 boxes left and only one large amount, the offer will be moderate, and often entice the player to go on, but again with a 60% chance of hitting the big number, the odds are not in the player's favour. That said, the offers might be so small that gambling against the odds becomes the most viable option, especially if the contestant can afford to gamble.

No deal.

Totally agree Rico - and a remarkably similar situation occurred with Madeleine's game today. She removes the £35,000 and the offer is down to £4,000, definitely enticing her to carry on, despite the huge risk of taking out the £50,000.

Having read that, with a board similar to that which you outlined, I'd always deal with a decent offer of £10k plus.

Garvan had it in your favourite box.
Jenna also had it.
Co-incedentally, they both had the same final 2 and ended up winning the £5,000.

EDIT: Whoops, didn't realise this was only for season 2.

£250,000 Watch:


EDITED See posting below

You might want to double-check that percentage...


I'd say it's a better than even chance we have to wait for at least 15 more games...

I had it fractionally under half a %, it is fractionally above it after a recheck, and I've consequently made the adjustment, but I did use decimals as opposed to fractions in this calculation hence it is only an approximate figure, but a figure than less than 1%, slim odds for sure.

HIGHEST FIRST ROUND OFFERS UPDATED:

October 2006 holds the record for having the most first round offers in excess of £10,000, 8 currently. These are the highest first round offers in the history of DOND in chronological offer (Qualification: £9,000 or more) Matt's first offer of £20,000 after he took out 5 blues is currently the highest:

Dec 9th 2005 Kai £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £7,500 (Deal)
January 28th 2006 Marie £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £4,000 (Deal)
March 29th Aaron £15,000 Contestant's Winnings: £25,000 (Deal)
April 24th Clare £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £1,500 (Deal)
April 28th Hilary £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £50,000 (in box)
May 1st Francesca £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (Deal)
May 3rd Pat M £9,500 Contestant's Winnings: £1,000 (in box)
May 17th Sarah £9,005 Contestant's Winnings: £6,000 (Deal)
May 23rd Lofty £9,400 Contestant's Winnings: £18,000 (Deal)
May 27th Mark £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £5,000 (in box)
June 3rd Jainie £9,100 Contestant's Winnings: £31,000 (Deal)
June 13th Daz £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £19,900 (Deal)
June 16th Ron £9,200 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (in box)
June 17th Debbie £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £15,000 (Deal)
June 17th Lee £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £10,001 (Deal)
June 26th Ryan £12,000 Contestant's Winnings: £15,500 (Deal)
June 27th Melanie £9,100 Contestant's Winnings: £30,000 (Deal)
July 3rd Paul £13,000 Contestant's Winnings: £32,000 (Deal)
July 5th Linda E £14,000 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (Deal)
July 10th Pierre £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £7,000 (Deal)
August 30th Lance £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £87,000 (Deal)
September 6th Paul £9,000 Contestant's Winnings: £9,500 (Deal)
September 15th Joseph £12,000 Contestant's Winnings: £13,000 (Deal)
September 19th Barbara £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £13,000 (Deal)
September 20th Khanny £16,000 Contestant's Winnings: £5,000 (in box)
September 25th Billy £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £50,000 (Deal)
September 26th Matt £20,000 Contestant's Winnings: £5,000 (in box)
September 28th Billy £10,063.79 Contestant's Winnings: £19,990 (Deal)
October 2nd Pat £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £22,000 (Deal)
October 3rd Mark P £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £22,000 (Deal)
October 10th Rosy £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £15,000 (Deal)
October 12th Ray £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £18,001 (Deal)
October 13th Susannah £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £8,500 (Deal)
October 17th Peter £11,111 Contestant's Winnings: £3,500 (Deal)
October 20th Lisa £12,000 Contestant's Winnings: £100 (in box)
October 22nd Harry £13,000 Contestant's Winnings: £20,000 (Deal)
October 29th David J £17,000 Contestant's Winnings: £70,000 (Deal)
November 3rd Howard £18,000 Contestant's Winnings: £1 (in box)
November 10th Helen £10,000 Contestant's Winnings: £21,000 (Deal)
November 15th Rachael £13,062.50 Contestant's Winnings: £30,000 (Deal)
November 26th Anna-Marie £11,000 Contestant's Winnings: £250 (in box)

As can be seen, the first offers have increased significantly in recent times compared to the early days of Deal Or No Deal.

There have now been 15 contestants who have dealt at the third offer in the history of Deal Or No Deal, and of those 5 have been Outright Player Wins: (OPW=Outright Player Win)

January 4th 2006 Jenni Dealt at £26,000 In Box: £50,000
January 26th Andrew Dealt at £14,000 In Box: £10
February 24th Beryl Dealt at £3,100 In Box: £15,000
March 14th Flash Dealt at £6,000 In Box: £5,000
April 5th Johnnie Dealt at £8,300 In Box: £100,000
May 23rd Lofty Dealt at £18,000 In Box: 50p
June 5th James Dealt at £14,700 In Box: £750 OPW
June 27th Melanie Dealt at £30,000 In Box: £100 OPW
July 13th Lynda B Dealt at £20,000 In Box: £50
September 19th Barbara Dealt at £13,000 In Box: £50
September 23rd Michaela Dealt at £24,000 In Box: £5,000
October 22nd Harry Dealt at £20,000 In Box: £10 OPW
October 29th Jane Dealt at £27,000 In Box: £10,000
November 13th Paul D Dealt at £25,000 In Box: £1 OPW
December 7th Mike Dealt at £25,500 In Box: £20,000 OPW

CONTESTANTS ALL-TIME BOX STATS

Here are the stats for the number of times each financial amount
has been in the contestant's box since Deal Or No Deal
started on October 31st 2005.
Show 1 to Show 329 14th December 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)

1p 11 £1,000 6
10p 17 £3,000 15
50p 15 £5,000 20
£1 20 £10,000 19
£5 16 £15,000 11
£10 20 £20,000 25
£50 12 £35,000 10
£100 16 £50,000 14
£250 15 £75,000 15
£500 15 £100,000 13
£750 13 £250,000 10

£250,000 Watch:

£250,000 not on the table:

Amount of shows at time of posting : 115

The odds of it not being on the table for the above amount of shows: 0.4747%

For the first time, the probability of the £250,000 being away from the table for a period of time that would make it less than 1/2 a percent likely has been reached!

£250,000 Watch:

£250,000 not on the table:

Amount of shows before today's game 3/12/06 : 116

The odds of it not being on the table for the above amount of shows: 0.453%

The chances of us having to wait another 116 games before the £250,000 comes to the table again are less than half a percent. Statistically the odds are that it is likely to come to the table at least once before Christmas!

Finally the £250,000 came to the table!

CONTESTANTS ALL-TIME BOX STATS

Here are the stats for the number of times each financial amount
has been in the contestant's box since Deal Or No Deal
started on October 31st 2005.
Show 1 to Show 329 14th December 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)

1p 11 £1,000 6
10p 17 £3,000 15
50p 15 £5,000 20
£1 20 £10,000 19
£5 16 £15,000 11
£10 20 £20,000 25
£50 12 £35,000 10
£100 16 £50,000 14
£250 15 £75,000 15
£500 15 £100,000 13
£750 13 £250,000 10

BOX AMOUNT CHART FOR CONTESTANT'S BOX

Here is the chart for the most frequent box amounts
found in the contestant's box at the table since Deal Or No Deal
started on October 31st 2005.
Show 1 to Show 329 14th December 2006
(Where a contestant swapped, it is the original box that is used in the data)

£20,000, named "The Rock" by some is currently in 1st position by a considerable margin. Show 312 which was not aired is not included in the data.

1 £20,000 25 times
2= £5,000 20 times
2= £1 20 times
2= £10 20 times
5 £10,000 19 times
6 10p 17 times
7= £100 16 times
7= £5 16 times
7= £250 16 times
10= 50p 15 times
10= £500 15 times
10= £75,000 15 times
10= £3,000 15 times
14 £50,000 14 times
15= £750 13 times
15= £100,000 13 times
17 £50 12 times
18 £15,000 11 times
19= 1p 10 times
19= £35,000 10 times
19= £250,000 10 times
22 £1,000 6 times

£20,000 Watch (alternatively RockWatch)

£20,000 is unique in Deal Or No Deal. Known as "The Rock" in Bother's Bar and now here, it has been won no less than 17 times (including deals), and been in the contestant's box (swaps not counted) 24 times so far, comfortably in 1st position in the box amount chart. At the time of posting it has been in the contestant's box 2 times in the last 8 days, and been won 3 times in the last 8 days!