With all the recent debate about early high offers, let's see how many contestants of those who were offered £15,000 or more as their 2nd offer and/or 3rd offer did in their games. These stats feature every show since April 24th that applies to the above cryteria, and they provide some interesting reading with the conclusion at the end:

CODE: wba=won box amount
2nd Offer=red 3rd Offer=green
The contestant's Deal=blue In contestant's Box=black

April 24th Clare £17,000 £1,500 £250
April 28th Hilary £17,500 wba £50,000
April 29th Massimo £16,000 £7,400 £15,000
May 1st Francesca £17,000 £20,000 £50
May 3rd Pat M £17,500 wba £1,000
May 17th Sarah £15,000 £6,000 £20,000
May 23rd Lofty £18,000(Dealt) 50p
June 3rd Jainie £20,000 £31,000 £100
June 6th Suzanne £26,000 £47,000 £3,000
June 7th Drew £15,001 £17,500 £20,000
June 10th Joan £20,000 wba 10p
June 11th Richard £18,000 £6,100 £75,000
June 12th 1 Louise £19,000 £30,000 £15,000
June 12th 2 Carlton £15,000 wba £10
June 14th Scott £17,000 wba £5
June 15th Trevor £25,000 £25,000 £20,000
June 17th Lee £16,500 £10,001 £15,000
June 21st Wayne £19,999 £999 £250
June 22nd Shirley £16,000 £17,500 £20,000 £50,000
June 27th Melanie £15,500 £30,000 (Dealt) £100
June 28th Ashok £21,000 wba £250
June 29th Amy £16,600 £20,000 £9,950 £5,000
June 30th Mark W £17,000 £30,000 £10
July 3rd Paul £19,500 £32,000 £1
July 5th Linda E £16,000 £20,000 £20,000
July 8th Nick M £15,000 £8,500 £250
July 10th Pierre £18,000 £24,000 £7,000 £10
July 11th Monica £19,012 £20,012 £12,000 £15,000
July 13th Lynda B £20,000 £50
July 14th Sally £18,800 £18,800 wba 1p
July 15th Buddy £16,000 £50,000 £3,000
July 17th Connell £18,004.50 wba 1p
July 20th Chris £18,000 £25,000 £50,000
August 29th Nick D £20,000 £31,000 £45,000 £5,000
August 30th Lance £25,000 £87,000 £100,000
September 2nd Steph £17,500 £25,000 £75,000
September 6th Paul £19,000 £9,500 £100
September 7th Sarah £20,000 wba £50
September 14th Nev £20,000 £41,000 £20,000
September 16th Sal £15,000 £20,000 £25,000 £750
September 20th Khanny £28,000 £30,000 wba £5,000
September 22nd Alan £17,001 £11,000 £750
September 23rd Michaela £19,000 £24,000 (Dealt) £5,000
September 25th Billy £24,000 £50,000 £5
September 26th Matt £35,000 £15,000 wba £5,000
September 28th Ashley £16,379 £19,990 £75,000
September 29th Steve £20,000 £25,000 £50,000
October 2nd Pat £18,000 £18,000 £22,000 £10,000
October 5th Jo £15,250 £20,250 £500
October 6th David W £15,000 £30,000 £25,000 10p
October 9th John £17,500 wba £1
October 10th Rosy £20,000.01 £15,000 £15,000 £75,000
October 11th Donna £15,000 £30,000 £75,000
October 12th Ray £25,000 £18,001 £35,000
October 15th Alex £17,500 wba £5
October 17th Peter £15,000 £15,000 £3,500 £500
October 22nd Harry £20,000 Dealt at £20,000 £10


Conclusion: Just 22 of these 57 contestants (38.6%) went
home with more money than their second and third offers in
these games where there was a 2nd and/or 3rd offer of £15,000
and more! Note that there were some very high second offers around the time of the double deal week in June, and some very high 3rd offers in recent weeks. Should contestants start taking some of these early
offers or play the game, and chase those early offers if their game starts falling apart?

Did you delete this post and re-post it? I'm sure it was posted earlier than 6:44... anyway... it looks like interesting information, I'll read it now!

Yes, it is indeed interesting reading now I've read it properly... ... and I think a contestant should deal early at a high offer, just to teach the banker a lesson!

I read it and now its a new topic again


Yeah intresting but theres not alot a contestant can do about it at the time, hindsight is a wonderful thing

Yes I did delete it initially to post new info. I was always convinced that some of those early offers should be taken, and I believe these stats are a vindication of the theory. I think that if some contestants took some of these early deals and had good proveouts, the banker might have to rethink his tactics!

I think the problem is the "£250k syndrome"... has there been a large second offer without the £250k in play? I can't remember one. And we all know that the £250k hasn't been on the table for ages - I reckon people are currently quite scared of dealing early when the £250k is still there. When it gets to the 8-box or 5-box point it's easier to evaluate the situation and make a decision. The only recent decision I thought was bizarre was Peter's decision to no deal after the banker stuck even though the £250k had gone in the previous round.

Once someone wins the £250k I reckon contestants will start taking high early offers. Although the banker may be ready for this and change his tactics accordingly. Or, put another way, I wouldn't like to be a contestant in the games following on from the £250k win, assuming it happens.

Excellent piece of work and very interesting!
Thanks
D

Thanks Donv

Based upon the stats analysis at the beginning of this thread, Harry made the right choice in dealing today at £20,000, his third offer (a repeat of the 2nd offer) even though many thought he had dealt too early. After this and Lisa's game, we might see different tactics by the banker and the contestants. Previously it has been considered "not cool" to deal too early. Will that change?

Possibly, although as I said earlier, the lack of £250k in the contestant's box recently is really what's affecting the tactics of both the banker and the contestants. Once it finally turns up again, we'll probably see a change in tactics.

One thing's for sure, it's certainly a good time to go to the table with a low box as long as the £250k remains in play. I'm not surprised to currently see the banker making high early offers, that's for sure - it makes sense.

Interesting how a majority of contestants would have been better off taking the early offer - though some may have been able to gain more later in the game only to have low sums, like Khanny. (And of course, Nick D actually did it!)

Of those second and third offers, I suspect I'd have taken at least one in four of them.