Exactly. The word 'random' really means that there is no pattern at all. So coincidences will happen. If we didn't see any unlikely coincidences then that would itself be a pattern of sorts. It'd be a 'no coincidences' pattern, which really isn't typical of purely random events.

And we only really tend to notice certain things, such as obviously the £250k and maybe the 1p. There was a run of about 130 shows without the £1k being at the table, but hardly anyone noticed that, and Noel certainly never mentioned it!

I find this sort of discussion really interesting... so interesting that I finally bothered to register and join in.

I'm really interested that no-one's really questioned that it really is a 1 in 22 chance that the £250k comes to the table at each show.

My problem is this - there is an equal chance (1 in 22) that it's in each box. But there's not an equal chance of each contestant playing that day, is there? Only people who have been standing in the wings for a reasonable length of time are going to go on - they never send anyone on straight away, do they? So the probability of the £250k being on the table goes down, doesn't it? Or am I making it unnecessarily complicated?

Yes, i see what you mean... out of the 22 contestants, there are only about 3 who are likely to be playing on any day... but they still have a 1 in 22 chance as to what value they have in their box... so i think it's still 1 in 22. Interesting point you raised, though!

Okay, yes, that makes sense - I was trying to make it more complicated than it really is. Thanks!

Yeah, despite the fact that each player doesn't have a 1 in 22 chance of being picked that day, because the boxes are allocated totally randomly each box has a 1 in 22 chance of being allocated to that day's player.

If today's and Sunday's show do not have the £250,000 on the table then it will be 80 shows without it. The odds of that happening are just 1.4%

You know what else is even more overdue? The player standing in Valerie's position having the £250k. It hasn't happened since Amy had it in Teresa's game, a couple of days before Debbie brought it to the table.

So, using Noel's statistical facts, if Valerie plays tomorrow, then she must be doubly likely to win it!

hehey!! see, it gets more exciting, what with it being SO long, 78 shows since it was on the table!! and daniel, i hope you are right......

£250,000 not on the table

Amount of shows at time of posting: 80

The odds of it not being on the table for the above amount of shows: 1.4%

All of a sudden Noel's gone quite about the longest run ever

£250,000 not on the table

Amount of shows at time posting was last edited: 84

The odds of it not being on the table for the above amount of shows: 1.1622717%

I know Mister Al will come back at me on this, but I'm far from convinced that everything's as random as it might be.

For instance, I've got the feeling that the "last one in" each day can't honestly answer the "did you pick this box at random" question - because I have the feeling that they'd be given the only box left.

Which, further, leads me to believe that that day's player must get to pick first - else how can they have had a dip at all 22 boxes? Which, further, begs the question of why they all look so surprised when their turn comes.

What we really need is a former contestant to come and spill the beans in detail about how certain things happen - do they do three picks on a filming day before they film any episode, or do they pick before each show?

When does the IJ allocate the money to the boxes? Is it before or after the contestant pick?

Also, what, exactly does "and is the only person who knows where all the money is" (bold and italics mine) mean? Does it mean that some other person(s) know where, say the 250k and 1p are?

Have we got stats anywhere for the distribution of box numbers at the table over the whole course of the shows from 1 to the current? Does it look reasonable for a truly random distribution? Have any boxes never made it to the table?

The players are told to look suprised when they are picked, I think. They choose a player, the pictures are collected, and that part of the show is filmed again.

Apparently the players genuinely don't know who is going to be picked when their name comes up, so the initial surprise you see is real, but they then stop the cameras for the player to prepare to go to the table, and then roll them again for the player to be surrounded by other players, admittedly with a similar look of surprise and ecstasy, followed by the "walk of wealth". Maybe one of the contestants can shed further light on this.

That's what I said!

Ooh. I've been summoned.


Well, the boxes are allocated randomly by having each person pick out a numbered ping-pong ball from a bag. So even the last person to choose will pick a randomly allocated box, albeit one that they've got 'by default'.


As far as I know, the players choose their numbered ping-pong ball in the order they stand on the wings, going from left to right every day. Hopefully some former player will either confirm that, or will correct me.


Have you seen the statement that show producer Glenn Hugill made to Bother's Bar (scroll down to the bottom of the page)? In it he explains that the players for each week's recording are chosen on the Monday, and confirmed in threes every weekday morning.

Every amount has made it to the table a few times now. Some amounts have been there more than others, but that's exactly what you'd expect from a random process. All of the statistical evidence I'm aware of -- and I've looked at quite a bit of it -- is entirely consistent with a fair and above-board game. (Apart from all of that sequencegate business. Obviously.)

I was thinking more of contestants picking boxes - and also of when each show's 22 boxes are assembled - as in 100k gate, when the box dropped and opened, they had what looked like standby set ready to go.



Yeah - that might skew things a bit.

Again, somebody who knows better may well correct me on this, but I'm pretty sure that each player chooses their box (ping-pong ball) just before each game is played. They wouldn't be able to choose for three games because they don't necessarily know that they'll be there for all three games!

As for when the boxes themselves are prepared, I have no idea.