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ShaneO

PostPosted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 1:34 pm    Author: ShaneO    Post subject: Significance of first opened box
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This might be interesting, I wonder if anyone has the ability to work out what the significance of the first opened box has on the winning amount of each player.

i.e how often does a blue first box result in a blue win and a red in a red etc..


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:20 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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Interesting question. Here's some quick calculations based on the 689 games broadcast so far.

Mean win of all 689 players: £16,827.12

Mean win of all 348 players who have started by revealing a red amount: £15,521.69
Mean win of all 341 players who have started by revealing a blue amount: £18,159.35

Actually, the difference there is a little wider than I'd have anticipated.


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rico7

PostPosted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:43 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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MisterAl wrote:
Interesting question. Here's some quick calculations based on the 689 games broadcast so far.

Mean win of all 689 players: £16,827.12

Mean win of all 348 players who have started by revealing a red amount: £15,521.69
Mean win of all 341 players who have started by revealing a blue amount: £18,159.35

Actually, the difference there is a little wider than I'd have anticipated.


The difference can be accounted for by the number of shows that have seen a Power 5 amount opened first.


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 12:50 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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This is an interesting thought. Statistically, I doubt it has too much of an influence, but it may well do psychologically, at the very least. There used to be a thread somewhere about people who hit £250k in the first box and what they ultimately won - the best example is perhaps Gaz who knocked it out in his first box, and no dealt all the way to £100k.

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 1:12 am    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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Some more detailed stats:

LIST OF MEAN AMOUNTS WON, CATEGORISED BY VALUE OF FIRST BOX OPENED

FIRST BOX OPENED -- MEAN WIN
1. £5 -- £23,094.98
2. £1 -- £22,976.67
3. £50 -- £20,338.20
4. £500 -- £19,562.19
5. £3000 -- £18,818.04
6. £10 -- £18,743.14
7. £1000 -- £18,629.04
8. £5000 -- £18,354.26
9. 50p -- £18,213.93
10. 1p -- £18,182.64
11. £50,000 -- £17,454.25
12. £75,000 -- £15,336.14
13. £750 -- £15,018.22
14. £35,000 -- £14,959.96
15. £250,000 -- £14,911.37
16. £250 -- £14,819.42
17. 10p -- £14,787.75
18. £15,000 -- £14,500.05
19. £100 -- £14,261.46
20. £100,000 -- £13,945.58
21. £20,000 -- £13,436.98
22. £10,000 -- £12,123.15

Looking at that, it's better to reveal the quarter million in the first box than it is to reveal the 10p!


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ShaneO

PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 11:41 am    Author: ShaneO    Post subject:
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Haha wow, great stuff. The difference between £5 and £10,000 is staggering though! So when that first box is £10,000 and they say that's ok, maybe it ain't!


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Tom

PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 9:44 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject:

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
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Crikey...


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Billy

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:44 pm    Author: Billy    Post subject:
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Let me guess, Laura's first box was £5...*checks*...ooh no! It was £1. Close enough.

It seemed that everyone who opened the 1p first went on to have a really awful game, so the fact that it's as high as 10th surprised me at first, but then I remembered Jennifer and Lance.

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cookie_monster

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:40 pm    Author: cookie_monster    Post subject:
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Billy wrote:
Let me guess, Laura's first box was £5...*checks*...ooh no! It was £1. Close enough.

It seemed that everyone who opened the 1p first went on to have a really awful game, so the fact that it's as high as 10th surprised me at first, but then I remembered Jennifer and Lance.

It seems as if everyone that finds the £250,000 first box have had a really good game, or not, according to the stats.

Thanks MisterAl, this has always made me think.

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willrelf

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 11:42 am    Author: willrelf    Post subject:
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this is interesting because now as you watch every game when you see the first box opened you'll be able to guess the amount of money the player will get at end, roughly!

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