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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:17 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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TWIST it is!

Your offer, then... he's taken your biggest cash win of the series so far... and built on it.

BANKER'S OFFER

£3,722.09 + £10,000 ON NO-DOWNSIDE 25



Now you KNOW that would give you at least £13,722.09, and the chance to bump that first digit up... and that would be BEFORE the wheel.

But is it enough with FOUR big reds?

Only you can decide. Deal or No Deal?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:18 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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NO DEAL.
23, 21 and 11

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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:23 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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Twisting right on to 4-box!

The Banker can now reveal that if you had taken the STRAIGHT offer...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£19,000



But you didn't.

Hopefully we can blow both of those out of the water... spoiler boxes are ready for this round!

Box 23 -
£20,000. Middle box. This one genuinely doesn't tell us a thing, except that the best and worst rounds are impossible.


Box 21 -
£5! But THAT is as good as it gets! If THIS is a blue...


Box 11 -
£75,000!

And still this game is poised. Two blues play two BIG reds.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:26 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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£25
£100

£50,000
£100,000


This time, it's just a straight offer.

BANKER'S OFFER

£22,500



With TWO to open... disaster for EITHER side possible... Deal... or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:30 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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I'll have to have a perfect round to get much higher uplift, but I'm not afraid of having the worst possible round..

This is not a Kall offer by any means. I don't think it's reckless to decline this, but also it would be prudent to take it.

As Natalie Imbruglia would say, I'M TORN!

NO DEAL.

24, 1. That was close.

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30 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:35 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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THAT is what Deal or No Deal is all about.

The Banker has succeeded in putting you in bits. He has NOT, however, succeeded in buying the box...

...how is he going to react at 2-box? What will he have to react TO?

He's rung up again. He says if it's £25/£100 it's the same finish as the last game... but he hopes it's a blue/red finish so you can go through that again!

Here comes maybe the biggest potential regret moment this series has ever seen...

Box 24 -
£25! BUT IT WON'T HAPPEN! There will be no crash to an all-blue finish!


Box 1 -
£100,000!

Best box for you... then the best box for him. £100 plays £50,000 and this will be some phone call...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:37 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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This is quite some game!!

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:38 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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Pretty sure I would've dealt there at £22,500.

As Archie said, there was only a 1 in 6 chance of the fin offer being a lot more.

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PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:42 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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The MOST anyone's left this game with? £36,300.

The LEAST anyone's left this game with? A £799 garden sofa pod from John Lewis & Partners.

Your offer?

BANKER'S OFFER

£36,300 ON NO-UPSIDE 25 + GARDEN SOFA POD



OR, if you want to play properly safe, take this offer and he promises he won't buy Box 25.

BANKER'S OFFER

£16,875



Three-quarters of the last offer. Safe. If you want it.

Or you can take the box. Or you can take the other risk.

Take either offer, or take the box... Deal... or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:44 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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I'm probably out with the conditional here, as I don't think I'd want to put £16,875 into the R/R 25.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:44 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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Pretty sure I'd take the £36,300 plus the sofa here.

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PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:44 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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I think the big gamble here would be to take the first offer. And as it has better EV than playing on hoping for the 50k, I'll take it.

DEAL CONDITIONAL OFFER

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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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THERE WE GO!

The Banker rings up... to say that with the three negative options the higher EV was actually the No Deal. But he also says all three outcomes were viable and that's why he made the offers he did.

IF you had chased the £50k, would you have swapped?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:53 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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As there was a 50/50 chance of winning it, was the 50k a higher EV??

NO SWAP!

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30 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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Yup, £25,050 EV and this menu works out low 20s. But you'll see that when the numbers come up... after I reveal that if you HAD chased the money in Box 13...

...you'd have won £100! Only a big prize wheel win would've saved you after that! £50,000 was out in Box 22.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:58 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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Ohhh I was going on the impression that he would make me buy Box 25 :shock:

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30 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:58 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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Ohhh I was going on the impression that he would make me buy Box 25 :shock:

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30 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 5:58 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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The £799 garden sofa pod is safe. The cash aspect of the Deal is all on this.

MONEY BACK (£36,300)
MONEY BACK (£36,300)

HALF (£18,150)
QUARTER (£9,075)
NOTHING


Those five are on average worth just under £20,000, meaning your Deal is on average worth just over £20,000. It COULD be that you only have the garden sofa pod.

But if you pick either of the MONEY BACK options, you have the biggest win of the series so far... AND the chance to add to it with the wheel.

It's on this. 1-5.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 6:00 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Warnings: 0
3

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30 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 6:02 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #19 [Archie]
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What a moment this is.

Find the NOTHING, and it's all on the wheel to give you a good prize. Find either MONEY BACK, it's the biggest win we've ever had.

HALF would also be better than the fixed Deal... we KNOW you were absolutely right to deal at SOME point in SOME way... but how well did THIS one work?

There were 5 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

MONEY BACK (£36,300)
HALF (£18,150)
NOTHING
MONEY BACK (£36,300)
QUARTER (£9,075)

IP: 81.104.176.120
Timestamp: 2020-05-31 17:00:51 UTC

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  
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