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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:25 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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And you felt like you'd have a better read on him at 8-box with the two-box game... let's get there.

Box 4 -
£5,000 isn't one of them...


Box 5 -
£5 certainly isn't!


Box 20 -
£750! THAT is the round you wanted!

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:26 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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So here we are at 8-box with two prediction chances...

1p
50p
£50
£500

£1,000
£3,000
£75,000
£250,000


The Banker said he COULD be stingy here. But he genuinely doesn't know if he can with two to open... are you predicting now or at 6-box?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:27 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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I'd predict £19,800.

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:28 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]

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He certainly could be. I'm not entirely sure he'd have gone quite that high, but let's take that BOARD BID:

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£18,700


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:33 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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The Banker thought about catching you out with a really stingy offer...

...he wasn't sure how much he could commit...

BANKER'S OFFER

£16,000



...so went JUST a bit higher as a percentage of the average. Which leaves you 14.4% out, which for the Board Boost is good enough for a 5.6% increase to those backup reds...
1p
50p
£50
£500

£1,056
£3,168
£79,200
£250,000


The offer is unchanged... sort of.

BANKER'S OFFER

£12,000 + £4,000 ON 25


OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£4,000 + £12,000 ON 25



He's offered you a 75-25 split in the direction of your choice! Two to open... they could both go... Deal or No Deal?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:34 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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I'd definitely go on here. Odds on chance of keeping the top 2 and only a 1 in 28 chance of finding both.

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:36 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]

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Interesting levels of risk there. Up to £40k on that second offer but there's a risk of selling a £250k box for a record low which isn't great, and then there's a shot a small shot at £24k on the top offer which doesn't quite tempt me enough either... so I'm going to take the two boxes. NO DEAL.

3 and 13 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:39 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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Ben liked the odds.

Aaron liked them enough.

And it's Aaron's thoughts that count.

WHAT is the Banker going to have to do to get a Deal if this works out?

Box 3 -
£50! One blue down! If THIS is blue too...


Box 13 -
£500! AND IT IS! But the pennies are still there to play on your mind... do we care? We might soon find out...

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:44 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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We're heading for one of the biggest decisions we've ever had.

1p
50p

£1,056
£3,168
£79,200
£250,000


Two offers again.

BANKER'S OFFER

£23,500 + SILK RUG


It's a £7,500 uplift from the last offer but more than that because it also adds an £1,100 silk rug from John Lewis & Partners... OR.

BANKER'S OFFER

MYSTERY SPLIT


An amount that would go on that 25 and an amount that wouldn't. The Banker says that one of those two amounts is £12,000 and the total average payout would be almost £30,000.

Take one, or neither... Deal... or No Deal?

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:47 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]

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Almost convinced that the Mystery Split has a 15 or 16 involved. £30k flat has me here, the prize offer doesn't, and I don't think that Mystery Split does it for me either with two to open... NO DEAL :eyes:

9 and 16 please...

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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Well there we go!

The Banker can reveal that the split offer was...

BANKER'S OFFER

£12,000 + £15,500 ON 25



And so we go on. Are we about to look at that as a distant dream? If we're not... it could be a Banker nightmare.

Box 9 -
1p! There goes THAT Banker leverage... and we could yet be one box away from potentially the biggest win of this series...


Box 16 -
£3,168! AND THAT COULD BE THAT BOX!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:53 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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50p
£1,056
£79,200
£250,000


With just ONE box to open, he is making just ONE offer.

BANKER'S OFFER

£42,000



Remember, this is before that 7.3% Win Boost... but you don't know if it'd be going through 25.

If it didn't, it'd be the biggest win of this series. If it did, and a red option happened, it would be MASSIVE... but, again, one to open. Deal... or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:56 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]

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What a decision this is. 50% of a massive uplift, 25% shot at god-knows-what, 25% of a big fall...

Whilst the IFT makes this a bit of a horrible one to look at, it is a bit less scary thanks to it being Risk/Reward. I'm less afraid of that, but with everything taken into account, I want one more box. NO DEAL.

Box 24 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 11:58 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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THIS is the biggest live-play moment of the series.

One box.

One enormous sum of money riding on it.

For all we know, this might not even mean anything if the Banker forced you through and NOTHING came up... but he wouldn't really do that on an EV+ 25, would he?!?

For now, we just have to watch and wait and hope it's blue or orange.

Box 24 -
£250,000!!

And the Banker breathes again.

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:01 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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50p
£1,056
£79,200


Did you want £42,000? Did you want to avoid winning NOTHING?

BANKER'S OFFER

£3 + £13,999 ON 25



One to open, one box deciding it. Or you can take that. Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:05 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]

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Very well pitched offer, this, given the one box game! If I play on, I've got a 2 in 3 shot at climbing to sort of the region that DOUBLE that offer might give me? Like Ben said on VC, £14k is an insta-deal, but £14k that includes such a big risk premium that I'm not sure it's worth it... I'll take the 2 in 3 shot instead... NO DEAL!

Box 23 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:08 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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You had no option but to take a chance.

The Banker says that he will promise that whatever this outcome is, he will now not buy Box 25, and the 2-box offer will be a prize...

...he hopes it's small.

Box 23 -
50p! HE GOT PUNISHED! £1,056 plays £79,200 and YOU CANNOT WIN A BLUE NOW!!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:10 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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As promised, a prize.

It's an iconic offer.

BANKER'S OFFER

RENAULT ZOE ICONIC



And it comes in metallic red for a guaranteed red. That's worth £28,355!

But do you want a car, or cash? That's the question... Deal... or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:12 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]

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Amazing stuff, and after a game like that a £28k car validates the gamble I just made, and I've taken enough in this game. DEAL!

I wouldn't have swapped if that was an option.

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Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:15 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 4.0 | Game #15 [Aaron]
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What a great battle, and you'll be driving away from it with battery power!

Box 2, on the table, had...

£79,200! It WAS there, and how incredible could this have been if Box 21 and its £1,056 was your pick a couple of boxes ago?

Not that it wasn't incredible anyway. Second Aaron game in a row with no cash won, but NOTHING like as painful this time.

AARON'S TOTAL WINNINGS: RENAULT ZOE ICONIC

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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