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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » KP's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:21 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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We're looking quite red-heavy at this stage so let's take the QUADRUPLE please.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:26 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Alright! It certainly is a nice option with any kind of decent stake. £10,000 would count... Deal or No Deal?

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:28 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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It certainly would, but I've got a feeling I'm in for better than that - NO DEAL!

I'll take 2, 18 and 19 please

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:33 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Big round with interesting possibilities now...

Box 2 - £50,000! Top backup...

Box 18 - £35,000! Suddenly, a one-box game...

Box 19 -
£5! ALIVE!

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:35 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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And at the eight-box point, we have a very interesting board.

1p
10p
£1
£750

£3,000
£10,000
£15,000
£118,750


The Banker says that this offer is not £9,001.

Do you believe him? Do you want to predict? One and only one left.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:38 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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That's a triple bluff, and I'm not biting I'm afraid! Pass...

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:41 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Holding on!

BANKER'S OFFER

£8,001



There's no way that can be right! Wait, it is. Deal or No Deal?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:44 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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Annoyingly I think I'd have dipped below £9.001k had I played a prediction there, but never mind!

Interesting situation to be in here, certainly a one-box game in terms of the mega money, but there's definitely scope for more here and I'm quite happy to say NO DEAL once again!

Things are starting to get rowdy rowdy! 5, 17 and 22 please!

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:47 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Will the Banker be dirty dancing at the next phone call?

Box 5 - £15,000! Possibly, but that's not the one that matters...

Box 17 -
£10,000! Nor is that, but the 1-in-56 is on...


Box 22 -
10p! WHAT a response after taking out the top two backups AGAIN!

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:49 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Here is your 5-box.

1p
£1
£750

£3,000
£118,750


Two chances at a prediction. One box could ruin everything...

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:50 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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I think it's better to go here and in three boxes time...

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£8,252


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:55 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Interesting prediction...

BANKER'S OFFER

£11,875



...and wrong! He's gone significantly higher, at 10% of the top box!

Well, that leaves you with a dilemma. Remember, Box 23 is optional, and this is the final configuration:

QUADRUPLE
MONEY BACK
HALF
NOTHING


Three boxes to open, no midway offers here. 60% disaster chance, but the reward potential here is immense... the Banker promises that if you get to 2-box with the £118,750 in play, he will incorporate a prize worth "thousands of pounds" into the offer so you can take on Box 23 and be assured of not leaving empty-handed.

Deal or No Deal?

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:00 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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Interesting decision to make here. Whatever happens (provided I have anything of value) that Box 23 is gonna be EV+, so do I take this and go for a 25% shot at £47k or play on for a 20% shot at £118k? I think I like the latter more - let's go one more time. NO DEAL!

I'll take 3, 10 and 13 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:13 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Well, that is the logic... and now, a huge round.

Box 3 -
£3,000! Well, well, well. Three blues play the second-biggest prize.


Box 10 -
£1! And now, you're just one away...


Box 13 -
£750! WOW. It's 1p or £118,750 on the table!!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:21 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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The Banker is being true to his word.

He is indeed incorporating a prize worth thousands of pounds into the offer.

Actually, offers. Plural.

BANKER'S OFFER

82" SAMSUNG 8K TV + £26,000


OR

BANKER'S OFFER

82" SAMSUNG 8K TV + £16,500 ON NO-DOWNSIDE 23



That TV, that ridiculous TV, is £9,999 courtesy of John Lewis and Partners. Then you'd either have £26,000 that you'd have a completely free choice on 23 with... or £16,500 that would go on a no-downside 23 that would effectively be an Archie-style Bonus Box but with a 1-in-4 chance of a QUADRUPLE rather than a 1-in-3 chance of a DOUBLE.

Or you could take your box. Or the other one, as the swap is available.

Deal or No Deal?

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:25 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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WELL! Here's some food for thought...

£26k quads up to £104k, and £16.5k quads up to just £66k. The EV on the latter is greater but I'm sure that's because you think I'm less likely to take it :P

And of course, you're right. I'll DEAL the £26k + TV please! :smt023

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:29 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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And there it is!

Well, the drama isn't over yet, although we do know you'll be able to rewatch it in unnerving detail on that TV that's yours no matter what. £26,000 is also yours right now, you have a Box 23 option on it that could get you to six figures... and now we have to find out whether you actually had six figures all along. It's that, or the penny...

...Box 11 had...

1p! Well, whatever happens it's safe to say you've made a profit on your box!! Box 16 had £118,750!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:33 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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You could be about to set the record win for this series, or actually sell the 1p for a loss in pure cash terms. Box 23!

QUADRUPLE (£104,000)
MONEY BACK (£26,000)
HALF (£13,000)
NOTHING


Remember, the TV is safe. This Box 23 has only one positive option, but what a positive option it is, enough to give you the biggest win ever in this series, and in fact more than doubling the most that this Banker has ever paid out, as well as topping the record win set in the April Fools Series last year when the deputy Banker whiffed on an undeal offer.

But it's £26,000 at risk here... to buy Box 23, Deal or No Deal?

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:42 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]

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So essentially a question of whether I would take a £36k offer on a £10k/£23k/£36k/£114k final four? I'm almost certain I wouldn't. If the worst comes to the worst, I've got a giant 85" TV here for Bat Meeting VII... DEAL Box 23 and I'll take Option 1 please!

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KP

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:46 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.1 | Game #46 [Aaron]
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Well, here we are. It was a thinker, and now you're in.

£26,000 on the line. A potential record win if this works out...

...here we go!

There were 4 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

HALF (£13,000)
NOTHING
MONEY BACK (£26,000)
QUADRUPLE (£104,000)

IP: 81.104.176.120
Timestamp: 2019-05-23 00:33:46 UTC

AARON'S TOTAL WINNINGS: £13,000 + 82" SAMSUNG 8K TV

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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