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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Aaron Brock's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:45 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** REPLAY **

That's come in, and now it's a conventional game with two predictions left to make... This HAS to be a better round now...


22 - £15,000! Fine.

18 - £10! And again...

20 -
£5! JUSTIFIED! :D

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Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:46 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
    1p
    10p
    50p
    £1
    £50

    £3,000
    £10,000
    £100,000
    £200,000
    £500,000
    £600,000

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:47 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

The Banker says he's more relieved to have suffered that round to have had that Replay hanging over him at this stage!

The offer is locked in, do you want to try for some prediction points?

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:49 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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£1.4m on the board for an average of around £130k, Banker might keep things a bit tighter with the leverage reduced but that may be relative here!

I'm not convinced it's a half-the-average board but I'm also not convinced it isn't. Ergo...

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£53,250


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:52 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Into the fifties...


BANKER'S OFFER

£51,111.15


... which he did with a weird 7 significant figure amount! That gives you a meaty 158 points to spend, but how exactly?


    200% -> 279%
    +£20,000 -> +£35,800
    100% -> 147.4%
    50% -> 81.6%
    10% -> 25.8%

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:54 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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Because I don't know if I'd go for this at high stakes, I'll crank up the additive into P5 territory because that's the one that will play up in the situation where I do know I'll be buying it.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:55 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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As much as a 7sf offer that could theoretically become an 8sf wintempts me, NO DEAL.

13, 15, 19.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:58 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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1 in 5 shot at a Power 5 win now if this goes horribly wrong! Now, don't let it ;)


13 - 10p!! ALREADY a great start...

15 -
£50!! Oh my word, could you actually get to 8-box with all four of them still to have a go at?


19 -
£100,000! No, but that's the least bad way to rule it out!

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:58 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
    1p
    50p
    £1

    £3,000
    £10,000
    £200,000
    £500,000
    £600,000

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:01 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

He's dreading losing another six figure win twice running, but he's not confirming here whether he's willing to concede that at this stage!

You have a prediction left to make... how much of an uplift have you had here? Are you willing to post that last prediction?

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:03 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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I think the play is for a six-figure conditional after this prediction, and I'm happy to make such a prediction, because I feel like there's room to do it.

£1.3m in eight and this is a half-the-average board or maybe more...

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£84,500


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:05 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Thinking that we're hovering around a similar benchmark to three rounds ago...


BANKER'S OFFER

£88,000


It's the Corinne offer, and that's good for 160 points at this stage! Upgrade options...


    200% -> 280%
    100% -> 148%
    50% -> 82%
    10% -> 26%

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


Last edited by Aaron Brock on Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:06 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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Well that's a boring outcome but in this case boring is good!

Throw it on the 10%.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:08 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Okay that locks in your Box 23 #moneymenu for tonight:

    200%
    +£35,800

    100%
    50%
    26%

Which alters this, as he wanted to give you an alternative gamble...


BANKER'S OFFER

£100,000.01 ON A COMPULSORY BOX 23


Take the plunge with that new and improved 23 and he'll let you put a six (eight?) figure amount through it! OR take the flat £88k, or neither...

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:14 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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The good news is that's actually pretty easy to read ;)

Is £200k/£136k/£100k/£50k/£26k worth £88k? EV just into six figures, the floor is very reasonable... is £88k a good enough offer for the board? It's good enough that it can be taken at least.

When I have a three-way decision I tend to want to go for the middle path, and when the middle path has a 60% chance of giving me the iconic 8sf win I am having to actively check that I'm not being led into a trap by the sheer Batnip value of that conditional offer.

Risk premium in double digits when the floor is the Governor doesn't seem like a trap. DEAL £100,000.01 on 23.

11, 21, 9.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:22 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Alright! £100,000.01 is almost definitely not yours - more on that a little later! Let's see what's happening in this main game...


11 - £200,000!

21 - £1! You swerved a pound! :shock:

9 - £600,000! But THAT would have happened...


    1p
    50p

    £3,000
    £10,000
    £500,000

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£45,000


Would've been down to a brimful of casha, but we need three more here!

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:24 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
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Well the swerve didn't matter as I took out even LESS than £1 in the box I would've saved :smt046

5, 3, 1.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:26 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
5 - £500,000! Game over!

3 - £10,000! Well and truly...

1 - £3,000! 10% disaster shot!!


1p vs 50p...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£3,017 & NO BOX 23


Box 7 had 50p and the 1p was being held to the end in Box 17!

Now the interesting part...

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:27 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
A HUGE swing on this...


    200% (£200,000.02)
    +£35,800 (£135,800.01)

    100% (£100,000.01)
    50% (£50,000)
    26% (£26,000)

Was the six-figure offer ever going to be a six-figure result? Good luck... 1-5!

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:27 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [164]
International Forums Moderator
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Kall logic. 5.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  
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