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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Aaron Brock's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 4:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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Just over half the average, with inherent insurance aspects... does the additive-at-low-stakes BB stop me taking that on? Given that said BB becomes multiplicative at high stakes, and we're already at high stakes, no it does not. DEAL!

I'd have gone for 11 and 7 as my next round, then gone one at a time with 9, 5, 3, 1. #InternationalRules

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 4:59 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

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Alrighty! That's your second-offer DEAL of at least £33,333 locked in, and potentially an extra £25k if you've got the jackpot on the table! Let's hope so, as we play your proveout...


11 - £750 NO NOT GOOD ENOUGH

7 - £250,000! That is though!

    1p
    10p
    £250
    £500

    £153,746
    £250,000

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£29,000 + 6.3% OF BOX 14


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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:02 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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CLASSIC. I might have dealt that just for what it was, although with two huge amounts and the ability to go only one more it'd have been a tough point to stop.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:04 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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9 - 10p!! Would've been near-perfect!

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£45,000



5 - 1p!! Oh dear...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£46,000 + 15% OF BOX 14



3 - £500!! This is getting ugly, and it's looking like JUST the save he needed...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£88,888



1 - £250,000! We finally have some relief!


£250 vs £153,746

** RING **

The Banker is unsure whether he gives you the option for a BANKER'S GAMBLE here... He's asking you that if he were to offer it, are you willing to say whether you would take it or not?

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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:11 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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The 10%-of-the-box aspect is in my head here, especially with my always-swap philosophy inverting the psychology on the decision!

...I genuinely don't know if I would take it. With no BB and just the 20% bailout chance I probably don't. With the BB cranking up the bailout chance but also being more powerful in a different way at high stakes I... still probably don't? I don't know?!?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:12 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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** RING **

He's had time to think, and he's scared of giving away more money than he absolutely needs to after that last game! He's not offering a Banker's Gamble...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£45,000


Presumably you'd have swapped for #17 here?

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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:14 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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The right decision for him, and I'm not complaining either. I'm glad the decision is out of my hands. :)

Swap, yes. BLUE! BLUE! BLUE! BLUE!

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:17 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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You'd have swapped here, what a weird dynamic this is!

Would you have swapped away the blue for a mega win? Or have you just dealt for a bizarrely wonderful amount?


Box 17...
had £250 in it!! It would've beeen awful because there was a mega £153,746 in Box 14, bringing your 8-box Deal to a mighty and wonky £48,707.60!


And now it's time for two big boxes...

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:19 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

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The first is a gloriously messy Box 23 #moneymenu!


    DOUBLE (£97,415.20)
    +£20,000 (£68,707.60)

    MONEY BACK (£48,707.60)
    HALF (£24,353.80)
    FLOOR (£9,741.52)

That's what you're facing, it's slightly EV+ but imagine taking one of those red cards and pushing that into the Bonus Box for an even bigger shot at six figures!

Is it worth the risk? Deal or No Deal?

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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:23 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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...which is more on-brand, me sticking at a low-end P5 Deal that isn't a round number of pounds, or me taking a controlled-floor risk for the chance of the first ever win to eight significant figures?

Both. But risking almost £40k with barely any risk premium would not be on-brand. NO DEAL, hypo 3.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:27 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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I wouldn't have thought so, but was Box 23 about to throw up its first positive option in ages?


FLOOR (£9,741.52)
+£20,000 (£68,707.60)
MONEY BACK (£48,707.60)
DOUBLE (£97,415.20)
HALF (£24,353.80)

Nope. Fine, let's move on to bigger and better things!

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:28 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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... as we load up your Bonus Box!


    DOUBLE (£97,415.20)
    ADD HALF (£73,061.40)
    +25% (£60,884.50)
    +10% (£53,578.36)
    MONEY BACK (£48,707.60)

A risk-free shot at ninety-seven grand here! Let's not have a double MONEY BACK, find something big!

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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:30 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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Well I'd have got away with it. :smt046

The on-brand outcome here would be 10% for the 7sf win in the low fifties... Tinchy, make it number 1 for success!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:33 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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Let's hope for something even better than on-brand, let's extend that brand!

Option 1...


    +10% (£53,578.36)
    DOUBLE (£97,415.20)
    ADD HALF (£73,061.40)
    +25% (£60,884.50)
    MONEY BACK (£48,707.60)

    ... or just do exactly what comes naturally to you! :lol: A great battle on a wonderfully powerful board has gotten you... the usually unusual, £53,578.36! Thanks for playing :P

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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:53 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [155]
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That is my tenth win of more than £50,000 and less than £60,000 in this series. And my third to not be a round number of pounds.

ON. BRAND.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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