Yes, 6/56 chance of not having £75k+ here!

25% chance of the jackpot is £62.5k of EV; 63%-ish chance of £75k-high adds another £40k-odd. So the EV is six figures, and I think even 80%-ish of it might not be enough when even the worst possible round would still leave a 70% chance of £75k. It's got to be another NO DEAL, and I will take a £75k/£75k/peanuts round MORE than happily from here... 11, 5, 9!

What would motivate me on most here is there being only a 1 in 28 chance of not keeping a £75,000 box to 3 box.

Have we ever had KP saying "it's got to be a No Deal" at so much money before?! This combo is an absolute game changer, but now we have to hold on to that big one... Spoiler boxes at the ready!


11 -

5 -

9 -

BT...

** RING **

The Banker is sobbing on the other end of that phone, wondering what has to give to get you out of the game, and he's hoping it's one of these six-figure offers...

BANKER'S OFFER

£116,000

OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£175,000 & NO UPSIDE BOX 23

Remember you only open two boxes in the next round if you say no...

That would be a DEAL for me at £116,000.

So if I go to the end I have 40% £250k, 50% £75k, 10% £1k. £137,600 EV.

The conditional-23 money menu is £175k/£175k/£175k/£87.5k/£35k... £129,500 EV.

Going to the end gives me a risk premium of £21.6k, not far off 20%, for absorbing the 10% disaster chance. Taking 23 gives me a £13.5k risk premium, nearer 10%, but the floor is in P5 territory and it's 60% chance of six figures.

With a legitimate case all three ways, the fact I'm getting over half the risk premium of the full ND from the conditional whilst still having a P5 floor makes that path mightily appealing. And of course, as the Banker knows, it's my style to take that path anyway. DEAL the conditional!

3 and 1 to finish. I skipped 18 by accident so I'm figuring that was destiny, and would've swapped 7 for it if it came to that in live play.

Alrighty!! £175,000 is yours... perhaps! Now let's mop this up and show him that this was never going to be a jackpot game!


3 - 1p!! Well you'd have guaranteed yourself the £75,000 now!!

1 - £250,000!! There it is, you'd have automatically just bagged £75,000 as the game would have ended there! It was boxes 7 and 17 that had them, Box 18 just the £1,000!

Now the moment of truth...

That money menu:

MONEY BACK (£175,000)
MONEY BACK (£175,000)
MONEY BACK (£175,000)
HALF (£87,500)
FLOOR (£35,000)

In a bizarre turn of events, if you draw the Floor here, you technically got an OPL with thirty-five thousand pounds. Even a half gives you a profit on what you'd have ended up with had you played to the end.

A weird and wonderful end to a weird and wonderful game. Please, please don't find one of the blue cards and this will be phenomenal... where are you going?

Wow, if I'd picked 18 when I meant to, I'd have had an even BIGGER 5-box because I'd have had another £75k instead of £1k and hence a £75k minimum.

I'll go for number 5...

Here we go, deep breaths...

He desperately threw out his beloved No-Upside offer when times were really getting tough...

Option 5, please let it keep the Banker on the very bottom of KP's foot where he's been the whole game...

Oh, I forgot about the floor. Definitely more tempting to take the £175,000 conditional with the worst case scenario being £35k.

Great job, KP.