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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:05 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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Let's replay!

** REPLAY **

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:07 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

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Please let it be better...


13 - £250,000! And now it's gone for good :(

15 - £32,101.23!! Disgusting then the replay works against you, but we're far from out here! Call or box(es)?

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:12 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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Tilt time. 11, 7, 9.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:13 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

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Keep the reds, keep the reds, keep the reds...


11 - 1p! RIGHT!

7 - £100! Pull another one here, come on...

9 -
£10! Wonderful stuff! That's 5-box with three of them over £12k... is this time to make an offer?

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:14 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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THAT is the momentum I played to salvage.

Get that man back on the line.

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:16 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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Alright, hello Banker!

    £1
    £500

    £12,343.21
    £13,370
    £39,385.56


Box 23:
    TRIPLE
    DOUBLE
    +£20,000

    HALF
    QUARTER
    NOTHING

Powerups:
  • 23 SPLIT


Third offer at 5-box, what do you want to leave the game now and give Box 22 back to the Banker?

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:28 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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Now you KNOW I'm thinking about weird numbers here...

...here we go.

BID 3: C$13,370 + 13,370 Swedish krona on 23

Which, as it stands when I checked, is £7,673.08 + £1,170.09 on 23.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:32 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

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The Banker thought you might craft something there that had an EV that snuck into 5 figures, maybe not quite so high though. He's trying to make a conscious decision whether there's enough risk premium there for an offer that he values over £11,200... and he decided there isn't. It's a NO DEAL!

On we go...

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:33 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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Marginal overbids at 5-box that are declared as such feel like a sign that you're doing something at least approximately right. ;)

Box 5 and then another go.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:35 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

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Well Box 5 will tell us whether that overbid was indeed the right thing to pitch at that stage...


5 -
£13,370! Hmm... not ideal but still got the components of a good out!

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:36 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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    £1
    £500

    £12,343.21
    £39,385.56


Box 23:
    TRIPLE
    DOUBLE
    +£20,000

    HALF
    QUARTER
    NOTHING

Powerups:
  • 23 SPLIT


What's the next bid?

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Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:38 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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Well, it's safety I guess.

BID 4: As Bid 3, but replace +£20,000 with THRUST on 23

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:41 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

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The Banker obviously likes that a lot better because the difference between THRUST and +£20,000 is around £12k. He's feeling pumped just to see this out a little further, feeling much the same as he did at the last offer with the lost of your largest backup - NO DEAL.

The next box...

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:41 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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...is 3.

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:43 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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... and hopefully is blue, and then you could really push that bid up...


3 -
£1!! PERFECT!! That might've cost the Banker more than he bargained for! :D

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:43 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
    £500
    £12,343.21
    £39,385.56


Box 23:
    TRIPLE
    DOUBLE
    +£20,000

    HALF
    QUARTER
    NOTHING

Powerups:
  • 23 SPLIT


How much was the loss of the pound for you? And what sort of agreement do you think you could make with the Banker here?

_________________
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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:58 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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Well we lost the pound from the offers a while ago now. ;)

So weird to play this because he has to play defensive against the prospect of the top box having a 23 Split on it, that's worth several grand in expected value to me there... it feels like £13,370 is the obvious benchmark he's eyeing up but I'm definitely wanting a complex offer because that's a horrible Box 23 decision with that menu.

OK, here we go.

BID 5: C$13,370 + C$13,370 on 23 with +£20,000 replaced by HUGE DOWNSHIFT

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:01 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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The Banker would quite happily let you play on here, but he's had enough fun with you now and he likes that enough to stop you playing on for over £39k to split a small portion of it onto 23 - it's a DEAL!

    DEAL: C$13,370 + C$13,370 on 23 with +£20,000 replaced by HUGE DOWNSHIFT

We'll see how you fare on that later, but for now let's mop up, last box!

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


Last edited by Aaron Brock on Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:02 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]
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It's 1, but you knew that!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:05 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [S06 E11 - #181]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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I pretty much did tbh!

1 - £39,385.56!! He tortured himself into paying out way more than he needed to, excellent work!

He would've accepted no more than £5,500 flat on that £500/£12,343.21 finish...

Box 22? That's actually £12,343.21 so you'd likely have swapped for the £500 in Box 17 instead if the Banker had let you get that far!

Box 23 time...

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Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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