Justin's game today.

Noel says it can be done but you can't do it Kate's way - referring to how she didn't have that extra little bit of courage. But he says the £250k can be won

I've got a gut feeling this will be a funny and good game

It's nice to see Noel to help Justin to settle in.

"YOU'RE THE MOST NERVOUS CONTESTANT WE'VE EVER HAD AND YOU'RE IN THE HALL OF FAME FOR IT"

Justin has box 9 today.

He takes a few deep breaths and seems very nervous and says he knows what Noel's going to say... but Noel remains silent! Then Noel asks if Justin's nervous and Noel says Justin's the most nervous newbie ever... Justin Willis is a 22 year old from Exeter. He has a little bit of banter with Noel about the football...

Justin said he was studying a nursing diploma at uni but left halfway through... he says he's always wanted to help people and be a nurse, as he is very sensitive and caring. He says he couldn't cope with the studying as he was dyslexic... he thought he was rubbish at academic work, but it turned out he was dyslexic. Noel says he has a beautiful lady in his wife who is dyslexic, who thinks she lives with someone called "Leon"

Justin shows some pics. Hannah is in the audience...

Here we go...

2 - Andy - £75,000

Noel says he thought £75k would be at the table, as £100k was there on Saturday, and £250k yesterday...

6 - Shaz - £5,000

11 - Laura - £50

17 - Sarah - £10

19 - Margaret - £100

That seemed to be a fairly fast moving opening round

Time for the banker...

The banker says Justin is one of his favourite players ever...

Banker's offer

£9,500

Justin says it's nice but he NO DEALS

Quickie round now...

20 - Derek - £35,000

4 - Jean - £750

12 - Ruth - Noel calls a break!

I thought you would miss that out

Basically they both went to Old Trafford to see Exeter play Man U in the FA Cup, it was 0-0 which was quite a cupset.... Also how about Ronaldo getting fouled and te Exeter fans singing WELCOME TO THE CONFERENCE... It was quite a match

Win alot of money Nervous Justin

We're back

12 - Ruth - 1p

Banker time...

Banker's offer

£14,500

Yay

Noel notices how Justin has a pic of Ellie and she means the world to him...

Justin says NO DEAL

Is it me, or is this game progressing rather quickly?

Caron's a bit of a snide isn't she

Good sign (touchwood)

Justin says he doesn't like parking attendants much and Caron is one!

3 - Caron - £1

14 - Sheila - 50p

Noel says he doesn't want to say anything for fear of being accused of jinxing this.....

5 - Nicola - £250

Banker time after an ALL-BLUE round...

Noel asks the banker if he supports a football team, and he says he doesn't - Justin wonders if the banker's a ballet man!!

Banker's offer

£19,500

An all blue round doesn't even send the last £14,500 offer into the 20k's... what a load of *beep* if he deals

Noel says it's inevitable Justin is going to win a red... Phil says worst-scenario still leaves Justin with £20k on the board!

Justin NO DEALS

10p £5 £500

£1,000 £3,000 £10,000 £15,000 £20,000 £50,000 £100,000 £250,000

Strong position!

Don't jinx it Lewis

He just ripped the seal platform thing off box 7!!

7 - Mark - £100,000

Noel says how Mark's getting a reputation for having the pivotal box...

1 - Ken - £10,000

Noel says normally we'd have a break... and he calls one

Good sign... early break.

The previous offer of £19,500 was 47.7% of the average, which was £40,864.

At the break, the average is down slightly at £37,723. The current volatility is 2.79

The last offer wasn't good then... I just had a feeling it was rather low. If it was designed as a push on offer then good play from the banker as the absolute opposite would have been terrible with this setup.

Hope he makes it through the forth round with the 250k intact

What if he finds a blue will that make a difference

We're back

Noel says he feels there's a lot of support for Justin...

21 - Matt - £15,000

Banker time...

He's still got the 250k there

Justin says he doesn't want people to think he puts his emotion on, because he doesn't...

Banker's offer

£11,500

10p £5 £500

£1,000 £3,000 £20,000 £50,000 £250,000

The average at eight-box is £40,563. The offer of £11,500 is 28.35% of the average.

Volatility is at 3.36, I'd no deal.

George says Justin is a real person and he still has two numbers left...

Phil says it's a good offer for the board, and Justin can do a lot with the money...

Justin NO DEALS

That's one of the *beep* offers ever...if he takes that I'd almost be tempted to side with lathewakey...

If anything, that offer highlights how ridiculous yesterday's proveout was.

You students are very crafty

15 - Dave - £1,000

18 - Phil - £500

16 - Matty - 10p

Banker time...

The banker is a ****

Oh my god ahhh this is the best

Wow, come on Justin!!!!

This should be £30k.

Noel wonders if the "quiet guy from Exeter" could be the first male winner of the £250k... and he wonders if it can come to the table 2 days in a row...

Banker's offer

£26,000!!!

Not 26k... that's just as bad as the 14.5k...

Please do not deal.

I KNEW the banker would pull that stunt

Thats dire...

£5

£3,000 £20,000 £50,000 £250,000

The average is now £64,601, with the offer of £26,000 is 40.2% of the average, and to be honest, proves how stupidly inflated Kate's £37,500 was.

Volatility is 3.42, I'd no deal.

Oh hes going to deal isn't he 26k is a bleeding stupid offer if the banker ever comes to Ireland I will kick his ****

I must admit, after that round he deserved a much higher offer then that! Im starting to get fed up of the £26k offer, its a great amount but its just used sooo often!

Compare that to the recent proveout offers

He brings his girlfriend down

Phil says out of everyone here Justin's the one they really want to do well... Shaz says he should deal, as do quite a few others, Matty says it's Justin's decision... some others say deal, some say no comment...

Justin DEALS

What a load of plonkers on the wings... sorry it has to be said, that offer is crap and they just influenced him

FFS

I knew I shouldn't have watched

Well Golden Balls is still on guys

He could regret that!

Hope he does!!

Why am i felling its on the table again!

Anything but the £250,000 now will give a higher offer even though he's removed 70k in boxes...

Woops

Not again

Please don't let the 250k be in his box

Noel says stand up if you'd have said no deal and half the audience do so. He asks them to remain standing as they'll have the best view of whether they would've been right or wrong

22 - Joy - £50,000

8 - George - £20,000

10 - newbie Gemma - £5

Banker time with £3,000 and £250,000 remaining ...

2 days in a row?

Oh dear... NOT again.

Banker's offer would've been

£62,000

I wouldn't agree with that but it was an excessively timid deal.

The banker has blatantly lost it... why 96k with a blue paired on the finish yesterday and 62k with 3k paired with it......

£3,000 £250,000

Average is £126,500, the offer is believable at £62,000.

Volatility is 83.33, I'd stop here.

Noel opens Justin's box 9 and reveals £250,000

Nooooooo

and that show is so predictible, nearly everybody decides to steal at the end.

Wow again, two days running!

OMG 2 DAYS IN A ROW!!! WHAT A FARCE!!!!!!!

OH DEAR!!! 2 days running!

Yesterday his box had ₤250 and it was box 9.

Right, I hope Justin enjoys the £26,000. It was a cautious deal, but he seemed like a fun player.

I don't think I'll come back to this thread either...

Amazing game.

Noel says Justin was destined to win the £250k, and says this is a huge relief for the banker.

Silence in the studio. Justin says he couldn't take the risk

Steve's box 13 has £3,000 to complete the game

Noel says he's never experienced this... everyone's in silence and the £250k being at the table has never happened before... Noel says let's get back down to reality, and he says Justin has a HUGE sum of money, and everyone applauds His girlfriend gives him a hug... Justin thanks the audience and the contestants...

Really did blow it big time. At 5 box all scenarios bar one would have guarenteed a decent offer.

God I want to slap noel... he talks utter rubbish

He blew 250k and noel makes it sound like nothing's happened. Its an absolute disaster

And Noel, I won't be back.

So...

TODAY'S ACTIVE PLAY:
£5
£3,000
£20,000
£50,000
£250,000
---
Offer - £26,000

YESTERDAY'S PROVEOUT:
50p
£1
£10
£3,000
£250,000
---
Offer - £37,500

You have to laugh.

Well done, Justin. Hope you both enjoy the money.

Oh, and I don't think I'll be posting back here later.

It proves once again that whatever somebody had on the previous show is diddly squat in this random game.

Can somebody confirm if both shows were recorded on the same day?

I suspect this thread will now go on and on and on into the night.
No doubt Justin will advoid this site like the plague. If you are reading this, enjoy £26,000.

You said that yesterday.

The clock at Trumpton says it's 4:58. It's not wrong.

Can you believe with 4 reds and 1 blue he offers his ol faithful but with Kate she had two reds and 3 blues and was offered 37,500 until Sarahs game I'm going to stop this renaissance for idiots

How do you know what he looks like?

That's nothing compared to both proveout offers, £62,000 compared to £96,000 yesterday when the former involved 250k and blue and the latter involved 250k and a low red...

No I'm going to say no more about it no more about it I'm going to make a cup of tea watch Golden Balls and paint my bedroom that way I will forget this

9 now joins 22 in carrying the 250k to the table for a third time, though I seriously didn't believe Justin would have the 250k, but as it turns out, he did. The 26k was a ND for me, given the strength of his board, and the 62k would have probably taken me to the end (given the proveout offer yesterday).

Ok, before I really do stop going to this thread, jiveclive, I would just like to say you are bloody pathetic.

You say you're 21, the way you act, I don't believe that at all. Every single day you whine when someone deals, just don't watch the show! I only watched it today for two reasons, because he lives in the same city as me, and to post the stats.

God, you annoy me more than SrWilson did.

Right im posting and then staying clear away!

Well i dont blame Justin for dealing to be honest, i bet a lot of people were thinking it wouldnt come to the table twice in a row and therefore a much better odds of knocking it out in the last round! But i dont think they might be thinking that after what happened!

Really happy he got £26,000 and i hope he enjoys it!!

I don't think that's ever happened with these type of seals!

I cheered him on, and I genuinely thought he'd have taken £11,500 and then I come on here and rant, but no, he stuck it one further, and took a huge sum, but low offer of £26,000. Well done.

Well, the banker could have made another prediction today about the £250,000 coming twice in a row. He must believe in Mally's Law or whatever it is then so he didn't look a fool... except he wouldn't if he said 250k was coming again.

Ok, having seen wilson's post, no you don't, you're just as bad as each other.

As I said no more about it

And yet, Justin won £5k more than Kate yesterday, and went one round further in the game (so was one round "braver", or more of a gambler, or whatever you want to call it).

Just because Noel didn't want to destroy the warm atmosphere in the studio for once by yammering on about how "disastrous" the result was. Fine, stop watching the show.

Nice to see someone thinking the same as I am.

Justin nearly had a heart attack when the filming finished on his show. He was so brave to get to that point !!!!

Clive I hate to say it but I think your gonna be very dissapointed when it is my game, sorry xxxx

You do have to respect where they are coming from too though, don't you?

To be honest though I blame the wings more than Justin. He came across as a bit too emotional with the tears etc but the wings hadn't a clue... again a statistician would have saved the day I imagine with the reminder of the bad offer of 26k and the comperation of the two 2 box offers and how 62k was *beep*.

It would have been virtually impossible NOT to get to that point given how bad the offers were.

Well that gives me enough thrust to miss your game afraid to say

OMG! It happened again?

That's twice now, would it come again three days running?

Aaaargh. How frustrating, £250K blown two days in a row, I blame the other contestants for their bad advice at 5 box (though in a way I shouldnt blame them, I think they just wouldnt be able to bear to witness a crash on this occasion), I think Justin would have gone with the majority either way, his partner certainly didnt try to influence him.

Fascinating game and contestant, frustrating proveout, a great show despite the way it turned out. More entertaining than the similar result yesterday.

'Exeter, the finest city in the whole world' Noel Edmonds 26/2/2008 Why was that classic DOND quote missed from the commentary?

PS - Sarahb, no spoilers here please!

We'll never know what made Justin make that Deal. The record books will show only that he did, and that he left the studio £26,000 richer than he entered it, and that's more than most do.

Easily the most successful £26,000 use ever, watch for that motif to be so overused as to make this show look like an Andrew Lloyd-Webber musical now. For what it's worth, I'd have left the studio with £62,000, and as I'd have followed my usual always-swap procedure I'd have taken it as an OPW.

Watch as tomorrow's introduction makes the one to Nigel's game look good.

Oh no! Not again!!!!

It was such a good game....until he dealt at the killer £26K. I don't blame him for not risking it.......

Bless him...such a nice guy

I would have hate to have seen the offer if he had dealt the £11,500 the banker probably would have offered more the £40,000.

Plus i am also getting sick of the £26,000 offer.

I am getting sick of people accepting that £26,000 because most of the time the banker is making it seem more generous than it actually is which implies it is quite *beep*.

Well actually I feel a lot happier than yesterday, mainly becuase of the believable proveout offer. I expected it to be something like 125k based on yesterday's evidence!

But I couldn't help but really like Justin, he'd always been one of my favourites on the wings even from when he was a newbie, and I had an awful feeling his nervousness would get him really poor offers and he'd end up winning a blue. It was really refreshing seeing a young lad not being all cocky and arrogant. There was no way I expected the 250k to be there AGAIN, so was actually quite relieved when he dealt, even though I though I would have gone on, it was obvious he was in life-changing territory.

Today's show more than any before has demonstrated just how close the contestants are to each other. They all made that show for me, all 22 of them. Well done to all of you, if you're reading! I don't even know if a statto on the wings would have helped in all honesty, it's would have been all very well pointing out the 10% chance of the £5/£3k finish, but you still have to take it into account. In this case, that would definitely have been worse than what actually did happen in my book. The whole element of that was just that the whole show is about far more than just numbers on a board. Shows don't have to be about gambles on power 5/blue finishes to be gripping.

That said though - well done to the banker for spotting his vulnerability, and offering what was probably just more than enough to get him out of the chair. It was a similar last 5, and offer to Kelsie actually - at least Justin didn't have the pain of leaving anopther power 5 backing it up at the end!

It was the sort of the game in which we could have done with Khanny in the chair...oh wait, he probably would have swapped. Morris then!

I predict whoever plays tomorrow is going to end up turning down 20-odd grand on a risky board and ends up winning a blue!

I really liked Justin as he seemed so nice and was obviously a very genuine bloke. I admire him greatly for going on DOND despite his obvious lack of confidence, and I found it rather nice that he was worried viewers were thinking he was putting it on.

As for the game, the offer he dealt was probably too much for him to turn down, which is fair enough. However, as the banker knew that Justin would probably deal at 5-box, why not make a large offer so at least there'd be a big payout and therefore a strong feel-good factor even if he did have the £250k in his box? I know the banker knew he could buy the box cheaply, and he effectively did so when you analyse the £26k offer.

But surely after the poor run of games we've had over the past few months, it'd have been better to make a generous five-box offer if only to provide a much needed big win?

Anyway it was a good show... just a shame that the £250k decided to come to the table 2 days in a row for the first time ever.

I've liked Justin ever since he's joined the wings and it was clear that everyone on the wings wanted Justin to do well.

I had a feeling that the Banker was going to offer his £26,000, which kind of annoyed me as it was so predictable. It's a shame Justin didn't go on as I would of liked to see him win more, but i'm happy that he got a sensible amount of money out of the game.

I also thought that £62,000 was a believable offer, in fact I thought it would of been a lot more, espcially comparing it to yesterday.

I'm really surprised and disappointed about some of the comments on today's show. I thought it was a classic! Top contestant that you could really warm to, great support from the wings and pilgrims, and a dramatic game. OK you could grumble that he should have gone on at 5-box, but in his situation (which the wings would have taken into account when giving advice) it may have seemed to be the right deal at the time. Congratulations on £26,000.

Oooo errr saucy

I can't believe it came to the table again...

Well that was an amazing game, i now understand why i watch this programme..to see real people with real emotions go on a gameshow to win money that means lots to them and not just to get annoyed every time someone misses out on more money.

Yes, he could have got the £250,000 but at the age of 22, he wasn't going to risk that. FAIR PLAY TO HIM!!! Probably one of the most emotional games i've ever seen..i don't remember basically everyone crying at the end of someone's game. But that was a good sign..it shows how close the group actually are...

I'll probably regret saying this but i was nearly close to tears as well after watching this game...i'll let people say what they want to that...

Well said Tom, my sentiments entirely.

I'll second that guys. Justin is a real person. Good luck to him & Hannah. It was a pleasure being with them.
Dirty George

I know today's offers make yesterday's seem foolish but the banker obviously picked up on Justin's nervousness. Personally, the £26K would have been nowhere near enough to get me out the chair but if £26K is a heck of a lot of money to you, I don't blame him for dealing.

£600K coming to the table must be a 3 day record.

Justin came across as a lovable sensitive guy, but in the bankers book this is a dream contestant for him.......and I believe that is why the offers were such cr*p!
to offer a ridiculous £19k at 8 box, then the deplorable £26k at 5 box was wrong! just wrong!

I just get so mad when the banker doesnt play fair!!!!!!! but then I soppose thats what the show is all about!
Ok rant over............

Yes £26k is a hell of a lot of money, but I think Justin probably had a few sleepless nights, with the 'what if' syndrome.

Yes, it's quite amazing to think that during January, no Power 5 boxes came to the table, and the total of all the boxes coming to the table in that month was about £70,000 or something stupidly low.

February 2008 must be on course to set a record... with well over £600,000 now!

Can't blame the banker one bit for making the offers. Justin accepted it so you can only make them lower, by definition! I don't even blame Justin to be honest, it's the other players on the wings who do not have a clue how the game works. Can't wait till we get a decent gambler (who actually is one, not making it up to get higher offers) or a statistician on the wings.

I like Simon F's point, that in the last 3 games £100,000, £250,000 and £250,000 have come to the table. What a cop out that all 3 were sold. There's more money lost in those 3 games than there was in September 2007 probably...

I'd love to see a statistician too.

Just to see how the Banker plays that game. We're well overdue one on the wings in honesty.

Gosh, for another Ed....

Yesterday's game Kate's family pushed her out, today the wings did? I'll have to wait for the 10 minutes to go up to see, but that seems odd...

I didn't think Ed was a statistician. I thought he spouted a lot of crap to be honest and made stuff up. I'm sure one of our dear statisticians here could back me up / argue as appropriate.

Having watched past games again I think Aaron was the only proper statistician. Alan gave advice in the form of percentages sometimes but yeah...

He's the only person I've heard quote the correct odds of taking the top two out at eight box (6/56)... I think he knew his stuff. He's certainly one of the best we've had, although that's largely lack of competition, and you are correct to call Aaron the best of them.

I don't think a statistican would have changed Justin's mind today. If someone said here's £26K but there's a 40% chance you could win a lot more but you could lose some or most of it - I don't think it would have made any difference.

Exactly; to be honest I was half-expecting Justin to deal quite considerably earlier, and if he'd been offered £20k or so at 11-box or 8-box, he may well have dealt. I suspect he was a bit of a targetist...

But Noel always says you have to balance what would be worse - dealing and finding the big money in your box, or losing the money if you carry on and it goes wrong. For Justin, it was clearly the latter, and I think that makes his deal justifiable.

Well I thought the last two shows utterly brilliant entertainment. I like shows where they could have won way more almost as much as when they win it.

I can't agree that todays proveout offers were fair and yesterday's weren't though. They are totally different people. If Kate had gone on to two box the Banker would have been convinced she was going all the way and was the gambler she claimed to be. Justin going to two box on his board wouldn't have been so scary and 62K would have been enough. The people and the shape of the game matter more than the figures themselves. The fact that the Banker was confident to make such very different offers in such similar circumstances proves that to me- otherwise he would have deliberately pitched it around 96K again.

I don't know if you'd call me one of our dear statisticians here, but I'd class Ed as somebody who definitely understood the maths behind the game, as opposed to somebody who just memorised probabilities without knowing how they were calculated. Aaron was the only other person who I could definitely say that was true of too, although I'm sure there have been others who have kept their mathematical talents hidden (show 600 Sarah springs to mind, seeing as though she was a maths teacher).

I'd also argue that people who do understand the probabilities are no more or less likely to be gamblers -- just because a person is more aware of exactly what the risks are doesn't make them more or less likely to choose to take those risks.

I concur. In fact Ed's a good example of that - he'd often temper his stat facts with different advice based on the people not the numbers.

I'd also argue that most, not all by any means, but most odds and stats are only relevant to games you can play repeatedly and so of limited use on dond.

Well, of course it's extraordinary that the £250,000 has visited the table twice in a row, but numerous other values have done the same, with the £20k turning up 3 times in a row only last week. The odds have not been twisted around, it is perfectly possible.

Now to the game. Justin was a genuine, cash-stripped, nerve-ridden, emotional drop-out student. A profile that is not crying out to me (and more importantly, the banker) hardcore gambler. Hence the banker lowballing the offers throughout.

Like a select few on the site, I was actually surprised he went on as long as he did, because you could see how much the money meant to him, which is a far more likeable quality in a contestant than outright cockyness and greed that they are going to win huge. I'm not saying I'd have dealt when he did, but I understood the deal and respected it.

He could have expected a better offer than that, but that was the offer on the table, and 10% still represented a chance for complete disaster. Towards the ends of games, the rewards can be great, but the risk of collapse is heightened. And you got the feeling that losing £9k on the offer would have been a bigger deal for him than some contestants. You can't force people into making decisions you would have made, especially as their financial situation may be significantly different from yours, and their aspirations for the money will vary from yours. Of course have an opinion, but don't criticise others for theirs.

I'd love to see some of the people on this forum practice what they preach and appear on the show. And be under the studio lights, with Noel offering you tens of thousands of pounds for a box that could only contain a low blue. And for some of you to fall flat on your face. It would have some kind of justice about it.

Anyway, well done Justin!

It's a 1 in 484 shot. We've had nearly 700 games so far. It'd be more extraordinary if it hadn't have happened by now.



Me too. And whether those people choose to gamble or not, I'd still respect their decisions either way.

It was actually 50:50 as to getting higher than 26k offered at 2-box - 250k with anything else, or 50k/20k. Of all the other combinations, only 50k/3k would not have seen a huge drop. The chance of more than 26k reduces to 40% if you commit to taking the box.

The offer was low for the board, but not low enough for many people not to consider taking it.

And also it's easy to say it was his only chance to get 250k, but it could also have been his only chance to get 26k (as in it could all have gone in 3 boxes)? He's not going to earn that much money in a hurry you know!

I hope you understand I'm not saying that I don't respect player's decision in general on whether to gamble or not, rather that is my reaction to some of the comments on here the last few days that have completely slated and character-assassinated the contestants to such an overwhelming degree, that I believe some forum members should get their comeuppance. Nasty I know, but there we are.

One of the best games of the year so far, IMHO, all thanks to Justin's very likeable personality.

I would agree - it takes a long to time to earn 26K it's large amount of money but I would hope someone would continue on that board because there's a very high chance of bailing out for a very nice sum between 10-20K at the final 2 - it's a calculated risk.

A 62K win on it's own would have been excellent huge win anyway let alone a 250k win

OMG!

I just watched the last 10 minutes and I am shocked that the wings talked him out of it!

The odds surely said there was another round in it. I suspect he - and I - would have gone at 2 box, but heck, he truly needed the money.

I wonder if Shaz will get the kind of game she deserves. She strikes me as waaaaaay too cautious to give a good game.

Congrats Justin on the 26k. Hope it gives you what you need.

Although it seemed the wings talked him out of going on, they after spending so much time with him know him better than the 2 minutes airtime we see a person, if that, when opening the box and making asides.

Bored with the same chair disappearing offer though happening all the time though. Seemed a very pleasant player though, and most genuine, and that money is a good sum, whatever people say.

Precisely what I was thinking, I'm not looking forward to Shaz's game at all. She doesn't even strike me as the type who would play it totally different like Asma or Dr Doom Adam.

The current line up seriously have no potential except the few who realised a no deal was correct on that board.