Lloyd's game today.

Noel welcomes us to the strange Dream Factory, and it calls it strange due the emotions that it gives everyone who enters it, Katie and Namfon get a mention for their games, and he hopes we get another amazing game like Namfon's yesterday...

You'd be forgiven for thinking you'd tuned into Huw Edwards hosting the news.



Anyway I hope he does well.

Lloyd has box 20 today. Noel straight away talks to Lloyds partner in the audience before he talks to Lloyd!!! Lloyd comes from a small village in South Wales, and Noel tells us how he moved Spain, but got the call from DOND and came straight back again!

Noel says Lloyd has turned all serious now he is in the crazy chair, as he was really relaxed on the wings... We get to see a few pics from Lloyd, and Noel recognises the place where the photo was taken...

Lloyd would love to visit Thailand and hopefully can win enough to travel, and he would love to open a bar as well...

Lloyd says he has his lucky hangover today


Here we go...

A happy start for a change

Is my TV set going wrong or is the sound a bit odd?

He's from Wales, you know! (I have to meet people who speak like this nearly every day )

Round 1

11 - £5,000 Mark E

19 - £15,000 Brian

1 - £3,000 Claire

16 - 1p Pat

14 - £5 Simon

Banker time

Noel asks Lloyd to read his game, and he replies that he is a happy bunny at the moment.... The banker calls and asks what is Lloyd's partner Donna doing with him!! The banker says that Lloyd has created his own Hall of Fame, but it's with the bar manager back at the hotel


Banker offers

£10,000

Lloyd's accent reminds me of many happy summer holidays down in South Wales as a kid. ahhhhhh.

Great start to the game.

Good round dere boyo!

Stats after Round 1
Offer: £10,000
Mean: £31,921.27
Offer (%): 31.33%
Fair Deal: £11,992.02
Volatility: 0.85
Redometer: 8

Board

10p
50p
£1

£10
£50
£100
£250
£500
£750
£1,000


£10,000

£20,000
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000

Intresting chynnig!

It's incredible to think that you walked out with nothing just now, and the box is now worth £10,000 says Noel...

Lloyd says

NO DEAL

Next round

5 - £250 Nikki

13 - £50,000 Geoff


Lloyd chooses Angie with box 4 next, but Noel calls a break as he tells us that the standards have fallen on the show lately, and apologises for the talk of excess drinking, and also the amount of flesh on show from the pilgrims!! He then goes over to a chap and tells him to pull up his socks as his legs are showing

A good start for Lloyd, this should be a great game today

Er...Angie...box 4...yesterday...

We're back
Last box before the banker...

4 - £75,000 Angie

Banker time

Oh dear me says Noel, but Lloyd remains positive... Deal or No Deal Arms goes Noel as he answers the phone The banker gives him his drinks order


Banker offers

£10,000

Stats after Round 2
Offer: £10,000
Mean: £29,815.11
Offer (%): 33.54%
Fair Deal: £9,275.87
Volatility: 1.49
Redometer: -6 (↓14)

Board

10p
50p
£1

£10
£50
£100

£500
£750
£1,000


£10,000

£20,000
£35,000


£100,000
£250,000

Ouch!

He's being generous there says Noel... Mark E says it's still a great board and his partner agrees...

Lloyd says

NO DEAL

Angie having box 4 again should have given off warning signs to Lloyd. A no-brainer here.

Wise words from Mark E.

'If you got it your box, you got it in your box' .

If you've got the £250k in there it doesn't matter what order the others are chosen.

Next Round

22 - £20,000 Laura - We did not want that says Noel

We need 2 blues now says Noel

21 - £35,000 Sue - NO, NO, NO, NO, NO says Noel

17 - 10p Adie

Banker time

Haha why did newbie Viv say "Welcome" to Noel? I think Michaela did that in her first show wayyy back in the second half of 2006.

Noel wonders if the banker will stick again... Semi thinks the offer will drop to around £7,000... Newbie Viv thinks it will be around £5,000...

The banker says he loves it when the contestants scrabble around trying to predict the offers...

Banker offers

£10,000

Yes of course! Doesn't make a difference that it's completely random at all.

Stats after Round 3
Offer: £10,000
Mean: £32,946.50
Offer (%): 30.35%
Fair Deal: £8,590.56
Volatility: 2.22
Redometer: -9 (↓3)

Board


50p
£1

£10
£50
£100

£500
£750
£1,000


£10,000





£100,000
£250,000

3 in a row!

He should never deal with the 2 biggies up there.

Everyone is surprised that the banker has stuck again, and Noel says that is a lifeline from the banker....

Mark E says it is a great offer, and to think about this now as it's real money...

Lloyd says he has seen so many games fall apart when 1 or 2 of the big numbers have gone, and he would struggle to get the £10,000 then...

Lloyd says

NO DEAL

Next round

2 - £100 Danny

3 - £50 Nic

Lloyd picks John with box 9 next, but Noel calls a break first...

Surely there's one more round in there!!!

Random, it may be, Thomas, but it'd have stopped me going to her

I reckon if 9 is blue, Lloyd will deal the next offer.

Eight-box might be the time to go, I'd expect £20k if this is blue and that's probably enough given that the offer would probably be a stick at five-box on £250k/peanuts and £10k on £100k/peanuts so you'd have to keep both (odds-against) for a better five-box offer.

Unless, of course, you're playing for the box - in which case you're probably not looking at the offers anyway.

That is a dangerous board, hope he doesn't do what 5 other players did, deal and then create the perfect ending

We're back
Last box before the banker....

9 - £1,000 John

Banker time

Close enough to being a blue!

It wasn't the all blue round, but it was good enough says Noel...

The banker is slightly delayed in calling and says that maths delayed him...

Banker offers

£20,000

It's not a bad board but it's pretty scary....

Stats after Round 4
Offer: £20,000
Mean: £45,157.69
Offer (%): 44.29%
Fair Deal: £14,727.16
Volatility: 2.25
Redometer: -1 (↑8)

Board


50p
£1

£10



£500
£750



£10,000





£100,000
£250,000

That, for me, is a cast iron deal.

No deal. 2 big ones left. It'll be a crime to bail out now!

I think he will deal

Lloyd asks for a sweep of what he should do... It's a mix of replies... Lloyd asks his partner, and she tells him that he had a sum in his head and he knows what it was... Lloyd says if he was sat at home he would be shouting NO DEAL, but in the Dream Factory it's different and he is worried the game could easily fall apart

Lloyd says

DEAL

Jeez what a cop out.

He should have said NO deal as the £250,000 is still in play, as well as the £100,000...

Noel says he thinks that is the most regretful NO DEAL he has ever heard...

Proveout round

We need both of the biggies now says Noel

12 - £100,000 Semi

You are now one box from victory says Noel

10 - £750 Newbie Viv

One more stab at this says Noel

7 - £1 Mark S

Banker time

I think if he had said 'no deal' and knocked out either of the top 2, the next offer would have gone down. That was a difficult one - I don't know what I would have done.

Stats after Round 5
Offer: £30,000
Mean: £52,102.10
Offer (%): 57.58%
Fair Deal: £15,686.56
Volatility: 23.79
Redometer: -2 (↓1)

Board
50p
£10
£500
£10,000
£250,000

Oh no...

Now this is starting to get very nerve wracking say Noel...

The banker says this is revenge on the Welsh nation after Laura


Banker would have offered

£30,000

That proveout offer is a lie, it would not have gone up having lost the 100k.

£30,000 is too high really bearing in mind he never normally goes above about £10,000 with 4 blues and £250k, and the £10k being there shouldn't increase the money on offer by as much as £10,000! I think a stick would've happened in reality...

Next Proveout round

8 - £250,000 Natasha

6 - £10,000 Mel

15 - £10 MJ

Banker time with 50p and £500 remaining

The banker asks if his Welsh nightmare will ever end

Banker would have offered

£200

An OPW in all but name. One of the worst proveout lies of the season.

Wahey!

Stats after Round 6
Offer: £200
Mean: £250.25
Offer (%): 79.92%
Fair Deal: £133.03
Volatility: 1000.00
Redometer: -11 (↓9)

Board
50p

£500

Noel opens box 20 and reveals £500

Box 18 (Shaun) contains the 50p

Hard to believe that £30,000 proveout - two years ago, possibly, but not now!

A good game, and a good £20,000 win; the second of the week!

In reality, I don't think Lloyd missed out on any money in that game. The £30k would not have happened in active play - the loss of the £100k would have probably resulted in a stick at £20k. I reckon if the banker had gone up, it would have only been to £26k at the most.

Yay! Enjoy £20,000 Lloyd

I'd certainly expect a stick there, and called as much (along with the £20k eight-box offer) early.

Good play from Lloyd, although a No Deal wasn't stupid (and if the £30k was genuine and to be expected I might have gone on myself - but as that wasn't true...) - forget that offer (a blatant attempt to make people feel bad about dealing at all early, or at all come to that) and celebrate our second straight £20k OPW!

.....with a 10k TBW in between

Forgot that one was yesterday, hahaha. Second in three anyway!

I couldn't care less about Banker wins and Player wins. Its how the game is played that matters to me. And to me that was £20k won with little honour.

Having come back from abroad especially for the show I guessed he had a target and after all the dithering about the 2nd offer I could see it wasn't going to be that much either. As the show progressed he was getting more agitated and desperate and once £20k was offered it was 'kerching' and out.

So once again a player refuses to take even a slight risk even with the £250k and £100k still up on the board. If he'd no-dealt the £20k, taken a risk and then dealt the £30k (or whatever it really would have been) I would have thought fair enough but that was spineless. No ifs. No buts.

£20k on the face of it is a substantial amount no question. The way in which it was won was very disenchanting indeed.

The 2008 total is now 119,600.1 we're getting there.

The thing that gets on my nerves is Noel moaning and moaning about a red going bearing in mind we've still got the two highest on the board. He never done that on house party.

Nor on Telly Addicts either.

I thought today was fairly a average game to be honest, but well done Lloyd on £20,000.

However today's proveout seemed to be dragged out for ages and Noel got on my nerves by keep going on about what we need to find and if we had been in play blah blah...at each box opening. I was glad when Lloyd did find the £250,000.

And if only recklessness is honourable I wear my badge of dishonour with great pride.

(Although you do say that a five-box Deal would have been acceptable, at least.)

Watching today I thought for a split second he was going to deal the third £10k offer...

The fourth offer was a bit of a quandry as while an all-blue round was possible, but not clear-cut - he could just as easily have taken out one of the big ones and seen the offer drop. £30k at the fifth offer was an exaggeration though with the only other red being the £10k, even with the number of other contestants saying they'd have no dealt the 4th round £20k!

Well done on £20k LLoyd, hope you haven't spent it all on beer by now...

Far more easily, in fact - taking out one of the top two was a 63% chance, and as you correctly recognised, even if it were £100k going and £250k staying you would not have seen an improved offer.

Average game - decent win, I'd have gone at 5 box provided the real offer was 25K.

I think he played that well, I don't think the deal was a cop-out at all, just analysing the board and thiking he was probably unlikely to get much more out of the game (and he wasn't unless he kept both the biggies to 5-box or 250k to 2-box, or 100k in the box). And the no-deal of the 10k the previous round was a risk in itself, I think the chance of taking one of the biggies from there was 50:50 (is the exact figure something like 49.7%?), and then the inevitable crap offer on a one-box game would have come.

It wasn't like Glenis when I was shouting NO DEAL at the TV!

Interesting he put the proveout offer up - Chris S from october dealt a similar offer on a similar board, took out the 100k in the next 3 and the offer went DOWN by 7 grand - that asks the question did they know he had the 250k, so the banker would beat him anyway so he did n't have to do it by putting the next offer up?

A tricky board at 8-box with the £100k and £250k still there but with very few safety nets. I liked Lloyd on the wings and he was very good in his game and I'm glad he won as much as £20,000.

So if you had £250K, £100K and 1p,10p,50p,£1,£5 and £10 - would that be a cast iron no-deal given a non-joke offer?

Yes.

Didn't expect Lloyd to play on Friday, but then again, i wasn't sure who the most likely players were.

Well done though Lloyd, a decent sum of money.