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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:23 am    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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I too don't think it was as bad a deal as it looked - I would have played on, but £27,500 is too much money just to be dismissed becuase of the board. My mum called him a big girls blouse for dealing! I think any big hit in the next round would have forced him on when he wouldn't have wanted him to. I'm not great on deal-of-11 odds, but he must have had a pretty good chance of avoiding all the power 4? Even the worst posible round would still have kept £50k and £15k, so I would have played on for sure.

I did believe the £55k proveout offer, that was genuine I feel, and I'd have taken that withut second thought. But the £66k was double what it should have been, New Year Frank and Psychic Sarah were both offered £36k on that board recently. Inflated proveout offers really are ruining the show for me at the moment. Putting the offer up after hitting £75k and £100k in one round just does not happen. End of.

I also think he would have played on if he'd played before Jean, Ian and Sarah - a bit like Jenni did after Irene and Nick.

But I could tell how much the money meant to him, and £27.5k is well above the average winings, and it's alos more than the last 4 contesatnts combined winnings so I'd still go home ahppy.

Well done Steven! :)

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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:29 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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As for the gameplay of Steven's - I'd have been very tempted to deal at the £27,500 third offer myself, because as I said earlier, there was a chance he could knock out the top 3 in the next round, and his later offers would've been lower than £27,500.

The £55,000 proveout offer was large, but the £66,000 was ridiculous - it was an above mean offer and is very unlikely to have been as large as that - I'd have said around £45k for both offers at most if Steven had still been playing.

I really, really liked Steven as he seemed such a nice, genuine bloke - and was clearly loved by the other contestants and he seemed to care for them in return.

It was a shame that you dealt too early, Steven - but you did the right deal at the right time for you - well done for having the courage to go against the grain and deal when you did, for a huge sum of money - £27,500 - enjoy the money!


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beaker

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:53 pm    Author: beaker    Post subject:
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h2005 wrote:
As for the gameplay of Steven's - I'd have been very tempted to deal at the £27,500 third offer myself, because as I said earlier, there was a chance he could knock out the top 3 in the next round, and his later offers would've been lower than £27,500.

The £55,000 proveout offer was large, but the £66,000 was ridiculous - it was an above mean offer and is very unlikely to have been as large as that - I'd have said around £45k for both offers at most if Steven had still been playing.

I really, really liked Steven as he seemed such a nice, genuine bloke - and was clearly loved by the other contestants and he seemed to care for them in return.

It was a shame that you dealt too early, Steven - but you did the right deal at the right time for you - well done for having the courage to go against the grain and deal when you did, for a huge sum of money - £27,500 - enjoy the money!


Personally I felt he bottled it.

Rather silly thing to say that he could have taken the top three boxes in the next round when he could just as easily have taken out the lowest three amounts on the board.

Thats what happens in a game of chance, sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 3:25 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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beaker wrote:
h2005 wrote:
As for the gameplay of Steven's - I'd have been very tempted to deal at the £27,500 third offer myself, because as I said earlier, there was a chance he could knock out the top 3 in the next round, and his later offers would've been lower than £27,500.

The £55,000 proveout offer was large, but the £66,000 was ridiculous - it was an above mean offer and is very unlikely to have been as large as that - I'd have said around £45k for both offers at most if Steven had still been playing.

I really, really liked Steven as he seemed such a nice, genuine bloke - and was clearly loved by the other contestants and he seemed to care for them in return.

It was a shame that you dealt too early, Steven - but you did the right deal at the right time for you - well done for having the courage to go against the grain and deal when you did, for a huge sum of money - £27,500 - enjoy the money!


Personally I felt he bottled it.

Rather silly thing to say that he could have taken the top three boxes in the next round when he could just as easily have taken out the lowest three amounts on the board.

Thats what happens in a game of chance, sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't


I could also say it's rather silly to say that he could take the three lowest amounts out in the next round when he could just as easily have taken the three highest amounts out!!! :?

As far as I'm concerned, the decision making on DOND is largely to do with what could happen in the next round, and how that could affect the offer - had he hit some big numbers, the offer would've gone down and he may well have dealt at a lower sum.

Rather than "bottling it" as you seem to describe it, I think he was being cautious, and there's nothing wrong with that! He said he had a bad feeling about the next round and he followed his gut instincts - seems fine to me.


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Rob

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 3:35 pm    Author: Rob    Post subject:

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Steven pretty clearly dealt when he felt was right - he had a bad feeling, and I'm a firm believer in instinct. So good for him! :-D
As for Noel - I did think he rubbed it in big time in this one, but to be fair there was 50K in his box, but there are different ways of doing it.
As for the 66K offer.... Hmmm.
With the 250K being in play at that point, and Steven would have turned down 55K, he would have to of been taken seriously. I admit I cried "WHAT??!" when it was offered to him, but when it gets towards 8 box and after, and the 250K is still in play, the banker tends to focus on that only, and how brave the player has been up to that point.

Hopefully that all made sense. :?


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 4:16 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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h2005 wrote:
As far as I'm concerned, the decision making on DOND is largely to do with what could happen in the next round, and how that could affect the offer - had he hit some big numbers, the offer would've gone down and he may well have dealt at a lower sum.


Yeah...I think you've got to look at the worst case scenario in each situation and see which would hurt you more. I personally would not have been too bothered if I'd done what Steven did and missed out on a lot more by Dealing too soon, but I'd have been *beep* gutted if I'd turned down £27.5k then whacked out the three biggest numbers and been forced to play on/Deal for something *beep*.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 6:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Keeping the top four in play between 11-box and 8-box... (7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9) = 7/33. Not that great really.

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jmas07

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 6:43 pm    Author: jmas07    Post subject:
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KP wrote:
Keeping the top four in play between 11-box and 8-box... (7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9) = 7/33. Not that great really.


How about leaving enough power 5 to raise the offer?


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basicasic

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:16 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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I nearly fell off my chair when he dealt. In refusing the first offer Steven said 'Im here to play the game'. Obviously he wasn't !

I feel sorry for the other contestants who had to stand there dreaming of having a board like that and watch it squandered away.


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basicasic

PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:50 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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I nearly fell off my chair when he dealt. In refusing the first offer Steven said 'Im here to play the game'. Obviously he wasn't !

I feel sorry for the other contestants who had to stand there dreaming of having a board like that and watch it squandered away.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Mar 24, 2007 2:04 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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basicasic wrote:
I nearly fell off my chair when he dealt. In refusing the first offer Steven said 'Im here to play the game'. Obviously he wasn't !


He did play the game - and he played it the way he wanted - dealing is part of the game of Deal or No Deal. I think a 3rd offer deal makes the show interesting - to see how the proveout goes (although it didn't go in the favour of the player this time)!

basicasic wrote:
I feel sorry for the other contestants who had to stand there dreaming of having a board like that and watch it squandered away.


I don't agree with that - it was Steven's game and he played it the way he wanted - and I certainly don't think you can describe dealing at £27,500 as something being "squandered away" at all! Imagine if Steven had hit the high numbers in the next round and his offers had plummeted!


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Steven

PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 12:47 pm    Author: Steven    Post subject: Thank you

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Thanks to all of your for your posts, i have just read them all back and glad that you all seemed to enjoy the game!

I am really pleased with the outcome, although i could have won a lot more, i just had such a bad feeling (silly me)!! Still, i am happy that i even got selected for the show and i met loads of new friends too, the £27,500 was the cherry on the top for me :-D

check out my myspace page if you have not already done so

www.myspace.com/stiffy1981

Chat to you all soon

Love and best wishes

Steven x x x


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 1:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Thanks for posting Steven.

H is absolutely right, and basicasic has fallen for the Noel myth that 'playing the game' involves ignoring the first half of the title.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 1:45 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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Now I realise that the chance of avoiding the power 4 were only 7 in 33, I think that makes it a better deal than it looks - I think for the offer at 8-box to have been higher than £27,500 would have meant hitting no more than one of them, and not the quarter-million.

Taking out two of the four (even if they were the £50k and £75k) would have left a precarious board like Donna's with the top two and not much else, so no way would £27,500 have been offered again, especially as I think the banker didn't see Steven as a serious threat!

Really glad to hear you were happy with your game Steven, glad that the £27,500 means so much to you! :)

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