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Suezan

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:34 pm    Author: Suezan    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 4:27 pm
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oh not a pound cry


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LittleFrog

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:35 pm    Author: LittleFrog    Post subject:
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Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2006 12:47 pm
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Poor John, it was a good game, and I'm glad to see a system being used because that's always interesting. And he went all the way - now that takes guts.


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22identicalboxes

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:40 pm    Author: 22identicalboxes    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:27 pm
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John deserved a big win after all his advice to other contestants, not forgetting the tingle!


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Richard1986

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:48 pm    Author: Richard1986    Post subject:

Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:44 pm
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If only John had a different set of circumstances in his game, he would have left with loads. 8 is a really bad box for trainwrecks!

We've had:

Barbara - Won £1
Dot - Just a very very bad trainwreck.
Raj - Won £1
Ashok - Won £250
Debbie - Won £250
John 'tingle' - Won £1


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:52 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:50 pm
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crazyeddie wrote:
I've been thinking that there might be a pattern to DoND, because the contents of the boxes aren't completely randomly distributed (a very small one, but could be statistically significant)...

Can you expand on this? What evidence do you have for any patterns post-Sequencegate?


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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:03 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject:
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Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:24 am
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Welldone John. :D

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Wittgenstein replied, "Well, what would it have looked like if it had looked as though the Earth was rotating?”
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justcause110

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:11 pm    Author: justcause110    Post subject:
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Well Done John. Should have tingled a bit.


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Power5

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:14 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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That was a really unlucky game, one of those who deserved a lot more.

When you think about it though, the odds weren't in his favour... Johns are unlucky, that position is unlucky, long-running players are unlucky, and then there's box 8 as Richard mentioned above! Not to mention a slight resemblance to 1p Trevor as was said when he first appeared all those weeks ago...

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Tugger

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:14 pm    Author: Tugger    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Apr 09, 2006 4:42 pm
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seems to remind me of Mike's game winning £1 and the £15,000 went at the same point as well!


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Starlight

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:23 pm    Author: Starlight    Post subject:
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Joined: Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:16 pm
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:cry: Another disappointing game


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Richard1986

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:26 pm    Author: Richard1986    Post subject:

Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:44 pm
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Power5 wrote:
That was a really unlucky game, one of those who deserved a lot more.

When you think about it though, the odds weren't in his favour... Johns are unlucky, that position is unlucky, long-running players are unlucky, and then there's box 8 as Richard mentioned above! Not to mention a slight resemblance to 1p Trevor as was said when he first appeared all those weeks ago...


Of course, there have been some good games with box 8, like Chris' (Female) game.

And when the 1p went, I was relieved!


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:29 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm
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Come to think of it, hardly any of the long-running players have done particularly well, have they? Gary got £29,999 and Karen got £17k, but other than that they've all had total disasters (Raj, Lucy, John) or won disappointing four-figure amounts (Pat, Khanny, Sarah :cry: ).

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Power5

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:41 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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daniel4389 wrote:
Come to think of it, hardly any of the long-running players have done particularly well, have they? Gary got £29,999 and Karen got £17k, but other than that they've all had total disasters (Raj, Lucy, John) or won disappointing four-figure amounts (Pat, Khanny, Sarah :cry: ).


Yeah, and the only two members of the 30-show club you missed were John M and Dave W, who both won fairly average 5-figure amounts. (Thanks to the other Dave W for the stats of course - he's also credited Ashley with 33 shows though it appears we didn't count his missing shows on here.)

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Richard1986

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:42 pm    Author: Richard1986    Post subject:

Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:44 pm
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Then Sarah never really did 33 shows then.


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:45 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm
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Richard1986 wrote:
Then Sarah never really did 33 shows then.


Yes she did. :twisted:

I think because Raj's and Sarah's positions stayed empty, it should still count as "their" shows, whereas Ashley's was filled by Harry for all the time he was away, so it wasn't really him. Although James took Raj's place for one show, too.....urgh, I don't know.

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Power5

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:46 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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Richard1986 wrote:
Then Sarah never really did 33 shows then.


She missed 2 or 3 didn't she (1 filming day? Sure Daniel can confirm!) and Raj was similar.

Ashley missed 6 shows I think, he was replaced but went back to his original position. Joseph of course was absent for about 50 (at a rough guess) and took up a new position when he came back.

I think the Association of Deal Or No Deal Statisticians needs to make an official decision here on when missed shows are counted! :-D

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JamesR

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:51 pm    Author: JamesR    Post subject:
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Very disappointing game.

Let's hope that £250,000 is in the contestant's box before long so Noel will finally shut up about it!!

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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:05 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon May 01, 2006 7:44 pm
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MisterAl wrote:
crazyeddie wrote:
I've been thinking that there might be a pattern to DoND, because the contents of the boxes aren't completely randomly distributed (a very small one, but could be statistically significant)...

Can you expand on this? What evidence do you have for any patterns post-Sequencegate?

I've been thinking about yesterday's game, where the whole mood changed when Barbara decided to swap her box. Swapping shouldn't have any effect, and yet it seemed as though everyone around her was concerned before the swapped box was opened.

With random distribution of the amounts, there's no advantage to swapping. However, if it isn't fully random, then some information can be gained as to what the contents of the player's box could be through the opening of the other boxes.

My theory is, while we don't know what's in the box, it may be possible to have more than a 50% chance of knowing where the money is located, based on the knowledge of the previous boxes.

At the moment, it's only a hunch. If the independent adjudicator isn't using computer methods to randomise the contents of the boxes after Sequencegate, then it could be worth looking into past games' trends. If it is random, then it should have no effect on how well a player does.

In other words, while it may seem like no harm can come from the swap decision, it could help you to win more in the long run, and conversely, to lose less.


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Goldeneye

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:11 pm    Author: Goldeneye    Post subject: Box 8 and the £1

Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:37 am
Location: Boston, MA, USA
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For those of you who didn't know, in Germaine's game, Boxes 8 and 12 (Germaine's) were left and the two amounts remaining were the £1 and £250,000, respeciively (However, Germaine took the £75,000 deal and then the £250,000 was revealed to be in his Box 12).

I know of at least one player (Ron) with Box 8 having a red (£20,000) in his game. Any others, especially those with one of the Power Five?


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:19 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm
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crazyeddie wrote:
MisterAl wrote:
crazyeddie wrote:
I've been thinking that there might be a pattern to DoND, because the contents of the boxes aren't completely randomly distributed (a very small one, but could be statistically significant)...

Can you expand on this? What evidence do you have for any patterns post-Sequencegate?

I've been thinking about yesterday's game, where the whole mood changed when Barbara decided to swap her box. Swapping shouldn't have any effect, and yet it seemed as though everyone around her was concerned before the swapped box was opened.


Surely that's just because it was a fairly unusual decision? Most players say "Ooh, I'd never swap my box", especially with such a big difference between the two amounts, and lots of people take the opinion that they'd rather find that they'd never had the big money in front of them than that they'd had it all along and given it away. I doubt anyone was worried because they actually knew what was in the boxes. :?

That's a point - there were a few edits at the start of today's show. There was an odd cut right at the beginning, and then there was something cut while Noel was on the phone to the Banker at the start; they probably had to cut out all the references to Barbara's game because Noel referred to it as being on the Saturday.

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