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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:54 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Box 20 - Laura - £250,000 :(

Box 1 - Zoopash - 10p

Box 16 - Olivia - £50,000 :(

That hurt.

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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:54 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Banker's offer:

£99.50


No Deal, unsurprisingly.

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:55 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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What a heartbreaker. :( Turning down £35,000 took guts, and I respect her for that, but on this occasion, it backfired spectacularly.

Wonder if we'll be seeing any more gambles like that after that.

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jakecarroll84

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:56 pm    Author: jakecarroll84    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:14 pm
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Mel says:

NO DEAL

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jakecarroll84

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:56 pm    Author: jakecarroll84    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

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hogwild94 wrote:
What a heartbreaker. :( Turning down £35,000 took guts, and I respect her for that, but on this occasion, it backfired spectacularly.

Wonder if we'll be seeing any more gambles like that after that.


I like it when big gambles are taken

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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:56 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Noel opens Mel's box 13 and reveals 50p :(

Box 7 with newbie Colin has £500

Mel says it'll be a difficult decision with mum, and she'll have to get money in a different way - but she went with her gut and did what she said she was going to do.

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jakecarroll84

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:57 pm    Author: jakecarroll84    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

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I wonder what her target is.

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:59 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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On another note, thank you Archstered and Brick for covering the show! :smt023

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Archstered

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:02 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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hogwild94 wrote:
On another note, thank you Archstered and Brick for covering the show! :smt023


No problem, just a shame the commentary was a bit all over the place, this show deserved a better thread :?

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Archstered

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:14 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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Knowing the result in advance (Watched it recorded) didn't make it any less painful watching it back today.

Gutsy lady, no reckless decisions, she thought them all through.

We get 2 brave players in a week (Sidi and Mel) and they both get kicks up the arse. It's not fair.

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:18 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Archstered wrote:
We get 2 brave players in a week (Sidi and Mel) and they both get kicks up the arse. It's not fair.


My thoughts exactly. These games will just encourage more ultra cautious play like we had over the summer.

At least things are a bit better now than they were then.

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Archstered

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:34 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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hogwild94 wrote:
Archstered wrote:
We get 2 brave players in a week (Sidi and Mel) and they both get kicks up the arse. It's not fair.


My thoughts exactly. These games will just encourage more ultra cautious play like we had over the summer.

At least things are a bit better now than they were then.


I think the Banker is at least TRYING to buy the box...

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Brick

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:01 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Since Ozzie and Beth both missed a big number on the wings last week, everyone else has seen their boards collapse the last few games. That's got to be the biggest drop to an all-blue finish we've had in a while though...?

It's a thin line between bravery and bravado, and well, Mel treaded that line in her stilettos today. I guess we need players to take unexpected risks every now and then, but I do think an alarm bell should have gone off in Mel's head when her offer shot up £9k following a round that wasn't even in her favour all that much. Still, it was her decision to make and she seemed prepared to take that risk.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:20 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Would I have taken £35k at 5-box? 100% yes.

Was it a terrible decision to no-deal £35k? Definitely not 100% yes.

Working out the EV on £250k high 5-boxes will generally give an amount higher than the offer because any £250k/high red combination will skew it upwards. You'd probably have to think that even a £250k/blue finish would have been reasonable (£70k+) given what she had turned down and £50k/blue would probably have been close to £20k.

It all depends how much a player is willing to take the 30% chance of losing £35k. Not something I would do but I certainly wouldn't totally criticize Mel today.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:57 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Mel, Mel, Mel,........................

If only you DIDN'T have the GUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :( :( :lol:

Mel, Mel, Mel,........................

Her 5 box No Deal was extremely brave, bordering on reckless. Sadly, it did not work. It was understandable, though, as risking a 30% of disaster at that stake and generosity level would lead on an EXTREMELY generous final offer should either red stay (£20,000 on blue/£50k and £90,000 on blue/£250k, roughly).

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:01 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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A very tense game today, some very brave no deals from Mel. And ultimately the biggest crash we've seen in a while.
No way i would have turned down £35k on that particular 5 box but there's no doubt that if it had worked out for her Mel would have been well rewarded

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psychokiller

PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 1:34 am    Author: psychokiller    Post subject: Re: 08/10 Mel
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Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2009 10:42 am
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American Coupon Boy wrote:
Mel, Mel, Mel,........................

If only you DIDN'T have the GUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :( :( :lol:

Mel, Mel, Mel,........................


Well done, you nearly, nearly got a smirk out of me.


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