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never_wrong

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:34 pm    Author: never_wrong    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:15 am
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wakey1512 wrote:
Yes, it is random, but it was far more likely to be £50,000 considering it hasnt been on the table in 56 shows. Im not saying it couldnt have been 50p.


Or, far more likely to be the 50p since box 16 hadnt had the 50p since Buzz's show, but had the 50k in Debbie's. You could look at this in a multitude of ways but it doesn't hide the fact that any value could be in any box on any day. No value is "more likely" than another.


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:36 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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But you cant expect a box to have the £250,000 20 times can you? Thats the same concept as what ive been going on about.

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Duffer

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:37 pm    Author: Duffer    Post subject:
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Joined: Wed May 17, 2006 5:55 pm
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There was I thinking that when it flashed up 'Shirley' at the beginning that we wouldn't be in for much of a game... Well, that shut me up.... :oops:

Most exciting game for a while, fantastic entertainment, though probably not so fantastic if you're Shirley. Still, she got her target - she shouldn't have any regrets. She showed more bottle in her 45 mins than most of us could ever have or need.

To paraphrase the old quote, it's better to have tried and failed than to have not tried at all.

Here endeth today's philosophy lesson... :-D

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:38 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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wakey1512 wrote:
But you cant expect a box to have the £250,000 20 times can you? Thats the same concept as what ive been going on about.

If you'd already seen the £250k nineteen times, then yes, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see it a twentieth time.


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:39 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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I hope people stop saying 'weve seen so many games crash and burn'

They seem to forget that some people deal far to early and miss out on money because they dont have the courage.

Even Noel says 'you people dont remind us of the Jennifers weve had'

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never_wrong

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:40 pm    Author: never_wrong    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:15 am
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MisterAl wrote:
wakey1512 wrote:
But you cant expect a box to have the £250,000 20 times can you? Thats the same concept as what ive been going on about.

If you'd already seen the £250k nineteen times, then yes, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see it a twentieth time.


But at the start of each show, there's an even chance that it could once again be in there. Nothing happens from show to show to eliminate the 1/22 shot.


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:40 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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MisterAl wrote:
wakey1512 wrote:
But you cant expect a box to have the £250,000 20 times can you? Thats the same concept as what ive been going on about.

If you'd already seen the £250k nineteen times, then yes, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see it a twentieth time.


You mean, it wouldnt be reasonable?

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wakey1512

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:41 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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never_wrong wrote:
MisterAl wrote:
wakey1512 wrote:
But you cant expect a box to have the £250,000 20 times can you? Thats the same concept as what ive been going on about.

If you'd already seen the £250k nineteen times, then yes, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see it a twentieth time.


But at the start of each show, there's an even chance that it could once again be in there. Nothing happens from show to show to eliminate the 1/22 shot.


But the odds are getting more and more higher each time it reveals the £250,000. Same thing as the £250,000 in a box 20 times thing.

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never_wrong

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:42 pm    Author: never_wrong    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:15 am
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wakey1512 wrote:
never_wrong wrote:
MisterAl wrote:
wakey1512 wrote:
But you cant expect a box to have the £250,000 20 times can you? Thats the same concept as what ive been going on about.

If you'd already seen the £250k nineteen times, then yes, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see it a twentieth time.


But at the start of each show, there's an even chance that it could once again be in there. Nothing happens from show to show to eliminate the 1/22 shot.


But the odds are getting more and more higher each time it reveals the £250,000. Same thing as the £250,000 in a box 20 times thing.


The odds may do, but the facts don't. Unless the IA makes a conscious decision to not put a value in a box because it had been there for quite a few shows in a row, there's nothing stopping it from being there again....I'm starting to feel like I'm repeating myself a bit :?


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AVIE

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:47 pm    Author: AVIE    Post subject:
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I'd have left with £55K, absolutely NO DOUBT. :lol: :lol:

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Duffer

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:50 pm    Author: Duffer    Post subject:
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Someone will probably beat me to this but...

Yes, Wakey1512, if a box did contain the £250000 20 times in a row it would be almost incredible, unbeliveable etc etc BUT having had the the £250000 20 times in a row, that sequence doesn't affect that the chances of it being in the same box the next day are still 1/22, the same as it always is. In a random game, which we have to assume that this is, as Mister Al said, what's happened in the past has no effect on what happens in the future.

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wakey1512

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:02 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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AVIE wrote:
I'd have left with £55K, absolutely NO DOUBT. :lol: :lol:


Nah, not me.

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Ian W

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:06 pm    Author: Ian W    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 8:46 pm
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Great game, well done to Shirley

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Suezan

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:18 pm    Author: Suezan    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 4:27 pm
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i would of took the 55 thousand but I applaud her bravery at having a go your a braver lady than me missus


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wakey1512

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:32 pm    Author: wakey1512    Post subject:
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Suezan wrote:
i would of took the 55 thousand but I applaud her bravery at having a go your a braver lady than me missus


You have a Miss's? I thought you are a Miss?

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:33 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm
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Whack a comma in between the "me" and the "missus".

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Suezan

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:34 pm    Author: Suezan    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 4:27 pm
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wakey1512 wrote:
Suezan wrote:
i would of took the 55 thousand but I applaud her bravery at having a go your a braver lady than me missus


You have a Miss's? I thought you are a Miss?
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


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Suezan

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:34 pm    Author: Suezan    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 4:27 pm
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Daniel I am Cornish we don't do punctuation


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ryanwestwing

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:55 pm    Author: ryanwestwing    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:49 pm
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Great game shirley - i was devastated when i was called into the middle and thought i had really messed you game up! - i'm only glad that you got what you wanted in the end and you gave all us the contestants the most exciting and thrilling game during our time in bristol

xxxxx


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Suzanne Akers

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:06 pm    Author: Suzanne Akers    Post subject:

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 1:49 pm
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Fantastic Game!

Well done Shirley. :D


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