daniel4389 wrote:
wakey1512 wrote:
daniel4389 wrote:
wakey1512 wrote:
daniel4389 wrote:
Erm, OK. Give me a mathematical explanation as to why.
No, you tell me why its wrong. Yes, it starts a new leaf, but its LESS likely to contain the same value twice. 1/22, yes it can happen, but its MORE likely to be something else.
Well, that's right - the chances of a box having anything other than the £250k are greater than of it having it. But that's not affected by the previous game, and it's still just as likely to have the £250k as any other amount.
But you cant expect around 4 £250,000 in a row can you? Thats the same thing as ive been talking about.
Doesn't make any difference. Box 1 could have £250,000 for 5 games in a row, and there'd still be a 1 in 22 chance of it having it in the next game.
Both your stats prowess is probably vastly superior to mine (still have no idea how I passed A-Level maths a few years back) but I think the answer depends on whether you are looking at box stats as a sequence or as an individual event.
If, say, Box 7 (for arguments sake) contains the £250000 every day from Monday to Friday then the chances of this happening at the beginning of the week I think are (correct me if I'm wrong) 1/22 x 1/22 x 1/22 x 1/22 x 1/22 = 1/5153632.
So, if you were to boldly predict that Box 7 would contain £250000 every day for 5 days, those would be your odds.
However, Daniel is right to say that, say Box 7 contained the £250000 from Monday to Thursday, the chances of Box 7 containing the £250000 on Friday are no less or no greater than any other day you care to mention. It's still a 1/22 shot and what has happened the previous 4 days has absolutely no influence on this.
The chances of £250000 being in any box 5 days running are incredibly small but, having happened, those odds will have no direct influence on what may or may not be in the box the next day.
Anyway, it's late and I've confused myself now...
FAQ
Posted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:17 am Author: Duffer Post subject:
