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hogwild94

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 4:54 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 17/01 Lynda
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Lest we forget, back in November, Kirsti dealt the same sum as Lynda on a weaker board (she had £5,000 and six blues IIRC, to Lynda's £10,000, £1,000 and five blues), and she took out the £250,000 in the fifth round.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:55 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 17/01 Lynda

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daniel123 wrote:
£3,000 I thought was a good, fair offer - throwbacks to 2006 are always good in my book :P

£8,500 was fair again, but I wouldn't even attempt to go at 14-box. Yeah, on one of maybe 1,000 occasions it's the best thing to do, but not on 999 others. This was one of the 999.

Board looked quite volatile at 11-box, but £750? IMO, 11-box is not the time for a joke offer. People decide to deal at 11-box quite often thesedays, so I thought the joke offer was actually quite inappropriate there. Sorry to be a Scrooge type figure, but I would have expected sincerity from the Banker there.

At 8-box we're looking very volatile indeed. I can't blame Lynda for taking the £5,000. It was a poor offer in the circumstances, but the decision is just as hard at £5,000 as for a higher offer, arguably.
Personally, I would go on but with caution.

On we go to 5-box and I'd be right to have gone on - but Lynda was also partly right to opt out when she did. I mean, it's a decision proven wrong on its consequences, but the consequences involved - in large part - sheer luck. It could so easily have gone her way.

At 2-box, £71,500 seemed right to me. I would have dealt at £17,500, and definitely at £71,500. I mean, really, honestly...

...who would risk £71,499? Come on Wakey, my old mate, wherever you are - if you're reading this - Mr Wakefield, I don't think even you would have done that.

I could be wrong...


Probably would have taken the £17k. The extra blue nudges it over for me. If that was an orange backup then I may have carried on till 2 box which is a no brainer deal. Even my 2006 personality would have taken £71,500. I think.

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daniel123

PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:46 am    Author: daniel123    Post subject: Re: 17/01 Lynda
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Ha, I wrote that with barely a 0.001% expectation that you would be here to reply.

Really, back then? I think all of us who were so avidly against dealing (and there were...well, was there anyone else? :lol: ), if we'd been there in that chair in certain situations, maybe we would have taken certain offers.

IE, in real life, even back then we may have been different to our cocky, almost arrogant online personas. So yeah, I see your point there...on reflection, I'd say I, too, would have taken £71,500 in 2006 - if I was actually there.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:27 am    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 17/01 Lynda

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I was totally against any sort of deal because my utility curve was well.. non existant. Nowadays I value the board and the statistics with a slight gambling edge, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of me supporting a hypothetical disaster to prove that a bad deal was the wrong choice to make! Looking back at the cowardice of Spring 2007 I can understand why members acted the way they did against contestants. After watching a cowardly deal turn bad it's very easy to want to blame the contestant and throw all manner of personal insults at them in order to beef up the argument. But at the end of the day opinion is opinion and if one person can't understand why statistics even matter in a game where real money is being offered that gives others equal right to support a statistical view of the game too.

None of this is really relevant to this game but as the conversation has started in here it's pointless making a new topic for it so I apologize if this is in the wrong place

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