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KP

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:36 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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On this board, the clock counts as more than a little bit of a spoiler.

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:38 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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We're back

Round 5

6 - £10 Gabbie

4 - £500 Gill

22 - £750 Gregg

Banker time

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:39 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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That was a really important round says Noel. The Banker says that was Helen's first all-blue round, and he is concerned that might get her confidence back.

Banker's offer:

£10,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:41 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Helen goes to Rich for some advice, and he says he would play on. Stephen says he would deal, as she took a big gamble just now. Alex says he would deal if it was him, and would also recommend that Helen should deal for herself. Imani tells Helen she needs to do what is right for her, and not listen to what others would do.

Helen says

NO DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:45 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Round 6

Noel says that got him completely as he thought Helen was going to deal then.

20 - 1p :D Jackie

It could still go wrong says Noel, so he is not celebrating yet.

13 - £5 Rich

Now it can't be a disaster says Noel. The Banker calls and Helen says that she doesn't want any offers now.

The Banker tells Helen not to pick the final box and deal now for...

Banker's offer:

£22,000

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Mark

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:45 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen

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Hopefully the "extra" offer won't work.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:48 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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She's pre-emptively dismissed the three-box offer before she's even received it... I suspect on principle she'll decline it.

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Helen says she wasn't expecting that, she thought about £12,000. Helen turns to her husband and says that he wants her to take it doesn't he, but if he convinces her to take it and she has the £75,000 in her box she will never forgive him! Helen talks to Stephen and he tells Her that if she plays on she is unlikely to get that offer again, and Helen agrees with him. The Banker calls and says that is why he made the offer £22,000. Helen asks Rich what he would do if he was playing, and he thinks he would be tempted to play on. Helen says if the offer was around £18,000 she would be playing on. Helen says that she really wants to play on, but she can't believe he has offered her this much. The Banker calls again and says that if Helen takes the £22,000 and reveals the £75,000 in her box, she will be a loser, but have £22,000.

Helen says

DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Round 6 - Proveout Final box

9 - 50p Newbie Alama

Banker time with £20,000 and £75,000 remaining

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Well played from both sides - the Banker for producing an unexpected problem, and Helen for being pragmatic about it.

Two-box potential offers were £44k, £22k and £7k, I think (presuming a "rewarding courage" two-box bailout), so EV not a great deal higher than the Deal.

Of course we get the £44k one (and it's rounded to a neat £45k rather than being the straight doubling I expected).

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Last edited by KP on Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:52 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Helen turns to her husband and says that it is his fault!

Banker's offer would've been:

£45,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Helen says she wouldn't have taken that offer, and then asks if the Banker would have offered the SWAP.

The Banker calls and says he would have offered the SWAP

Noel SWAPS Helen's box 15 for box 7

Noel opens box 7 and reveals £75,000

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Mark

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:53 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen

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OH DEAR... OH DEAR... OH DEAR...

Should have been a LOT more brave.

A massive shame the "extra" offer had to work... if it didn't... then the £75,000 would have been won.


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kestral

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Box 15 with Nick contains the £20,000

Helen says she is over the moon with £22,000, but she would have liked to have won.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:55 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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And of course, as usual, when the smaller sum is on the table, the hyposwap is offered.

We need to look through the records over the last couple of years to see if there is a statistically significant difference in how often the hypo-swap is offered depending on whether the larger or smaller amount is on the table.

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In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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hogwild94

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:56 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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I must say, I thought from Helen's attitude on the wings that she'd just wakey all the way no matter what, so I'm quite pleased common sense prevailed in the end.

On the other hand, this is why I don't do extra offers.

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:57 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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WHAT THE HELL?! Way to ruin the game NOEL! That was not the Banker's fault at all, he deliberately waffled on at 3-box just to get the Banker to ring. Thanks for ruining what could've been game of the month! :evil:

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:57 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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Mark wrote:
[if the 3-box offer had been declined] then the £75,000 would have been won.


Taking it as read that the £45k would have been declined then? It was near enough the mean after all, and it's not like the amounts were adjacent. Not saying she would have taken it because the £20k guarantee tends to make people play on regardless, but...

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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holly

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:58 pm    Author: holly    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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GOD!!!!!! I HATE EXTRA OFFERS!!!! THIS IS THE THING THAT SPOILS IT ALL!!!!!!!! AAAAAARRRRRGGGGH WHY DID NOEL HAVE TO WAFFLE ON SHE COULD HAVE WON £48,000 MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:58 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 03/02 Helen
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She said she'd have declined the £45k.

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