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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:46 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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KP wrote:
Simon F wrote:
So this is the equivalent of £15k on a £75k/blue finish then.


Very good spot - and I'd be playing on with that in mind... but rather hoping more for a £35k+ three-box offer instead...


Here's your 3-box offer.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:47 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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Round 6 - Continued

1 - Annie - 50p

The Banker rings up again and makes Gurpal another mid-round offer.

Banker's offer:

£30,000


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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:48 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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EV is a lot MORE than £30k (assuming the next offer isn't going to be around the £50k mark again).

Edited now KP.

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Last edited by Simon F on Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:48 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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Noel says this is right up there in DoND history as one of the most important decisions ever made by a player.

Gurpal says to the mid-round offer

NO DEAL


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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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Hopefully he will do what no other male has ever done so far, and win the £250k...

Got to be very brave.....


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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Simon F wrote:
EV is a lot less than £30k (assuming the next offer isn't going to be around the £50k mark again).


More, you mean.

Can you risk £30k on the assumption you'll get a huge offer at 2-box though? Only if you're prepared to chase £250k... or can convince the Banker as such. I'd be gone.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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Round 6 - Continued

Final box of the round

3 - Fred - £100

Banker time with £5 & £250,000 remaining


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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:51 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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Noel says this is amazing.

Banker's offer:

£70,000


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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Now, is the fact the blue is a Banker's Power 5 going to make any difference whatsoever? It shouldn't at these stakes.

I'd offer £75,000. He nearly does. £70,000 would be a Deal for me, £250,000 isn't twice as good as that on my utility function.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:52 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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Up to now, the decisions weren't statistically wrong and easy to predict by the pacing of the game.

Not a clue where this is going now.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:52 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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Noel says this is truly an amazing moment for him personally.

Gurpal says

NO DEAL


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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:53 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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I did think he was going to deal... hopefully this will be the first ever male£250k winner.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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First male contestant since May 2006 to turn down a two-box offer with £250k on the board. (corrected by MisterAl.)

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:54 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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Noel asks if Gurpal would like the swap. Gurpal says NO to the swap.

Noel opens Gurpal's box 11 to reveal £5


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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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Damn... he played it the correct way... shame he didn't box swap.

Would have been a lot better if they had him played yesterday, as if he did and done exactly like what he done today, then the £75,000 would have been won... !


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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

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Vivienne opens box 8 to reveal £250,000.

Gurpal says he really thought the £250,000 was there. Noel says he will never ever forget Gurpal's game, and that Gurpal remained true to his word.


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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:59 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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WHAT... THE... HELL?!!! :shock:
That was definitely another Corinne moment. I was literally GOBSMACKED that he declined £70k! :shock: :shock: :shock:

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:59 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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Ouch, that's gonna hurt! At least he gave it a good go, and that's a good thing.

Don't be surprised if this triggers a run of caution. :roll:

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:00 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal
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It was inevitable we'd eventually get a male contestant prepared to chase the £250k to the end who would actually keep it to the end. Surprised we don't get more, it's odd that the last two such contestants were women, not to mention the deus ex machinae of Alice and to an extent Laura, and Suzanne getting a board on which one could hardly not get carried away...

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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DVDfever

PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:01 pm    Author: DVDfever    Post subject: Re: 30/08 Gurpal

Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2011 1:52 am
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Gurpal was ridiculously foolish. He gambled far too many times. Luck can't last forever.

That said, I'd have gone at the 21k offer on 5-box.

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