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cfd

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:09 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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err, well he's not going to deal that surely. I was expecting £14,000ish.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:09 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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No shame in Dealing that - I am being pleasantly surprised by the moderate offers today given the circumstances.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:09 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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1 box game offers will be around £5k and £15k if he takes one of the top 2 out in this round.

We still have the twist though at 5-box. £9k is borderline in normal gameplay but might just go on here.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:10 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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£9,000 sounds just about fair but not enough to deal

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:11 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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37.5% is NOT that close to a coin-flip.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:11 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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Trying to get the offer up...


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cfd

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:11 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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The average is nearly £40,000. And 5-box gives a holiday chance + one box at a time which makes this offer even lower.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:12 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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Becks says she thinks Harry has another round in it, and Harry's friend reminds us that he could win a holiday if he went on to 5-box. Dom says crashes down if he loses the £250k, and Stacey says there's another round in it. The banker rings back and says Harry shouldn't be influenced as it's his money, and he encourages Harry to deal, but he admits he just doesn't want another game like Suzanne's.

Harry says he'd probably be thinking differently if the offer were more like 10. The banker phones and says deal. :P

NEW OFFER

Banker's offer:

£9,010

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h2005

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:12 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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Harry says his mum told him not to gamble with what he can't afford to lose.

Harry says

DEAL

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:13 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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Well the extra £10 means he won't join Tolleck if he does have the QM on the table.

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cfd

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:13 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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Fair play. Can't criticise the deal for his circumstances. Though if he's dealing that he should have took the £17,000.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:13 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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Noel says this is amazing, as Harry started at 9.5k, rose to 17k, and has now dealt at his lowest offer.

Noel calls a break...

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:14 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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That's a very laughable raise...and he deals...

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sorlag

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:15 pm    Author: sorlag    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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cfd wrote:
if he's dealing that he should have took the £17,000.


For this reason it may be the silliest play ever. Turns down £17k for a box worth £40k, then accepts £9k for a box worth £38.5k


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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:16 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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But the volatility rocketed in that round so that's not the whole story. Having said that, I'd value the 8-box board at around £12,000.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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James1978

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:18 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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I'm actually slightly pleased as I thought Wakey fever might take over after Suzanne's game. We need a "back to normal" game I feel. I was more tempted by the £17k than the £9,010 though.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:18 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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sorlag wrote:
cfd wrote:
if he's dealing that he should have took the £17,000.


For this reason it may be the silliest play ever. Turns down £17k for a box worth £40k, then accepts £9k for a box worth £38.5k


The box is never worth the average of the board (except perhaps at 2-box with 2 similar amounts). The FD of the board dropped from about £16k to £12k

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cfd

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:18 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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KP wrote:
But the volatility rocketed in that round so that's not the whole story. Having said that, I'd value the 8-box board at around £12,000.


That seems a bit low to me. I think i'd be wanting £14-£15k on that board. I'm looking forward to seeing what Deal-Eye thinks of it :)


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cfd

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:19 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry

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lol Noel still managers to get the holiday sponorship spiel in there :)


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2011 5:20 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 15/05 Harry
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We're back

Round 5 - proveout

Noel says we won't find out now whether Harry would've gone for cowboys or Indians.

13 - George - £250,000

Noel says George also had the £250k on Friday, and Suzanne swapped for it.

5 - Matt - £500

9 - Irene - £50,000

Banker time

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