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hogwild94

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 5:03 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al
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Ouch! That was exhausting to watch. Al definitely gave it a good shot though, and that can only be commended.

I can only hope this doesn't trigger a wave of early deals, though I wouldn't be surprised. :roll:

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DVDfever

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 5:06 pm    Author: DVDfever    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al

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RMF1254 wrote:
DVDfever wrote:
Sorry to say, but turning down 17k when 4 of the 5 boxes remaining were well under that amount?


How many times do I have to say this?!

That £17k was insultingly low given what had gone before!!! :evil:

And there have been far, far more stupid No Deals in the past...


That may well be the case, but it was still too risky to 'no deal' 17k.

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wkd

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 5:07 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al

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KP wrote:
His personal circumstances. And did you not see he lost his only sizeable safety net in round 5?!?

Not disagreeing at £12k was good though, and I would probably have taken it myself.


I don't watch but do we know much of his circumstances? He has a job and a small overdraft. That merely places him alongside a substantial proportion of the population. Doesn't mean he's teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. He didn't have to win a few quid. He made a risky but justifiable no-deal at 8 box so he was likely to do the same at 5 box with a five grand backup and a chance of a fortune.

Think I'd have escaped with two grand and payed the o/d I must admit though!


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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 5:17 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al
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The horrible crash at the last minute reminded me of 1p Trevor's game, truly awful to watch!

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 5:45 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al

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Contestants are never going to be able to please everyone are they?

Actually I thought £17k was a good offer, he still went up by £5k having taken out the important safety net - it was hardly going to soar was it?

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cfd

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 6:03 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al

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That was an interesting game to watch.

I think the £12,000 at 8-box was a deal. The board is just far too top heavy.

£17,000 seems like a poor offer but it really isn't. The 2nd highest value is £12,000 less than it. It's very much a case of leaving the £250,000 in play if you no deal. And even if he did get left with it I don't think the offer would have been above £50,000. And presumably he'd have dealt that... though given the no deals he made perhaps not. So by no dealing you have a 40% chance of tripling your money. Just about the right odds. But risking £17,000 to do it? Not for me.

And the swap was just mean at the end. I at least admired his bravery so it seemed a harsh finish.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 8:34 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al
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I think they missed a trick not throwing in a three-box offer, probably in the region of £35k. That would have potentially saved them a £250k win or a big final offer, but more to the point it would have created a talking point regardless - if he takes it it's a big Happy End, if he turns it down and he doesn't take out £250k it's an even bigger one, but if he turns it down and he does take out £250k, the script - someone with an overdraft turned down £35k and went away with a blue - is all the more dramatic, and gets people talking tomorrow.

And come to think of it, being self-employed he is by definition inclined towards risk-taking to a certain extent.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 9:01 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al
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Was £12k a decent offer?- probably.
Was £17k a deceet offer? - probably.
Was turning down either of the offer risky? Yes
Was turning down either of the offers a terrible decision? Probably not.

Whilst I understand why Noel keeps hyping the first male QM, do I wish he'd stop hyping it up until at least 5-box and probably 2-box? Definitely.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 10:42 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al

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Simon F wrote:
Was £12k a decent offer?- probably.
Was £17k a deceet offer? - probably.
Was turning down either of the offer risky? Yes
Was turning down either of the offers a terrible decision? Probably not.

Whilst I understand why Noel keeps hyping the first male QM, do I wish he'd stop hyping it up until at least 5-box and probably 2-box? Definitely.


I think this sums up the game quite well, clearly significant risk in declining both offers, but not obviously bad decisions by any means. However, most utility curves would probably suggest that the gap between £17k and a crash to a blue is greater than the reward for keeping the £250k in an offer not guaranteed to be more than £50k (especially if they are keen to push the FMQM angle), and as KP has intimated, you do have to slightly question the decision at 5-box purely from his circumstances...

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 11:27 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 03/05 Al

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From that amusing if slightly surreal opening with the missing photograph Al's game developed into something of a nailbiter. It was certainly memorable. Pretty much every serious offer was arguable either way and sadly for him Al ultimately jumped the wrong way

While i can't criticise Al's decisions i personally would have taken the £17k at 5 box. The cold truth is once he took out the £35k it was all or nothing and given the size of the drop £17k isn't that bad a deal

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