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unclekevo

PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 8:52 pm    Author: unclekevo    Post subject: Re: 17/05 De
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Aw poor De :(, such a lovely lady and a great character. I think this wasn't helped by the fact that Noel nearly influenced her decision by constantly saying she had the 35 grand when it was unlikely that she did.

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 9:08 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 17/05 De
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crazyeddie wrote:
Just to emphasise how bad her game was, the chances of having 9 blues and 1 red at 10-box is 605/646646, or less than 1/1000. Or one-in-a-cowsand. Ahem.

True, although since having 10 blues only would be an even worse situation, the more relevant probability to be quoting here to illustrate the unluckiness of the 10-box board is actually 616/646646. I am pedantic.

(Although that's less than 1/1000.)

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 10:23 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 17/05 De
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Simon F wrote:
I wonder after this game, whether the Muller sponsorship seemed a good idea.


I can see it being on there for a bit more and then replaced, if necessary

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 10:38 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 17/05 De

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Oh my, what a shocker :shock: Absolutely nothing she could've done to avoid that, save taking a cautious £2,500, which I wouldn't have blamed her for given the way the game was panning out. I think that's the first time we've had 9 blues and a red, although we've had the reverse of that with someone whose name currently escapes me... :ponder:

Not a lot more to say, except that De was a fun contestant if slightly zany in her obsession with cows, and didn't deserve such misfortune.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 10:58 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 17/05 De

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Awful game, incredible bad luck throughout and just when you think it can't get any worse...De swaps boxes to ensure a 1p win.

Thought the 5 box offer was a reasonable get-out, perhaps some people (who don't need a calculator and twenty minutes head start to work out the averages) will say it was a bit low but with a 60% chance of taking out the last red in the final round definately worth considering. No shame in carrying on either though.

Just one of those games.

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matt26

PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 2:06 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 17/05 De

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StatsMan wrote:
Oh my, what a shocker :shock: Absolutely nothing she could've done to avoid that, save taking a cautious £2,500, which I wouldn't have blamed her for given the way the game was panning out. I think that's the first time we've had 9 blues and a red, although we've had the reverse of that with someone whose name currently escapes me... :ponder:


That would be Sheran from early 2007. At 10-box she had 1p versus every red except 3k and 250k. Funnily enough she had the penny all along!


Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
Thought the 5 box offer was a reasonable get-out, perhaps some people (who don't need a calculator and twenty minutes head start to work out the averages) will say it was a bit low but with a 60% chance of taking out the last red in the final round definately worth considering. No shame in carrying on either though.


I was expecting her to take 2.5k actually. I don't know, she just gave off this air that she was going to. At 5-box there were 3 possible combinations:

- 40% chance of around 10-11k (blue/35k finish).
- 15% chance of a half-decent consolation prize (£500)
- 45% chance of pocket change

In a sense, the question was 'Would you like a 40% chance of 10k and a 60% chance of a blue win, or a 100% certainty of 2.5k?' For me, I'd definitely have gone for the former. I'd need somewhere along the lines of 3.5-4k minimum to deal there.


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