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KP

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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£35k/£50k would have been the finish that first persuaded me to play on at five-box; half-expecting a near-mean 'rewarding courage' offer at two-box with one of them in play would have sealed it. I'd be taking this in a nanosecond and feeling very relieved that I kept at least one big number :)

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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...And it is a spanking following the swap earlier

What a game with twists and turns

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 5:01 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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Big-Davey wrote:
God sake KB, how can it be a Gamble when she's dealt for over the mean? Dipstick :P


How was I supposed to know it was over the mean, I'm no stats person :P

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matt26

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 5:01 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week

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killersbee wrote:
Ooooh, Banker's Gamble anyone?


31k on a £10/50k finish? That's over 120% of the mean! Anyone who would deal that gamble deserves to lose tbh.

Another good game today. Ultimately not going on one box at a time didn't matter, since she'd have taken out 250k straight away! The 2-box offer was ridiculously inflated, but it didn't ultimately matter since it's stil an OPW! She's also the biggest winner since Ramesh. :D


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 5:02 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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Thank you Matt, we've both proven he's just a VERY reckless gambler :lol:

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greeny

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 5:30 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week

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killersbee wrote:
Big-Davey wrote:
God sake KB, how can it be a Gamble when she's dealt for over the mean? Dipstick :P


How was I supposed to know it was over the mean, I'm no stats person :P


I would hope that it is obvious that £31,000 is way above the average of a £10/£50,000 finish - I'm not a stats person and I could tell you that


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 11:02 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week

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Interesting game today - I think I'd have asked for £40k at 5-box, and it probably needed to be at least the median for me to consider taking it; basically, there were 5 combinations where the offer was going to be more, but also another 2 with the 50k (one of which we saw) where I'd hope the offer would be close to the mean 'rewarding bravery', and I wouldn't regret having lost the 9k in that situation, having at least had a stab at the 20% chance of a 6-figure sum with only one combination that stops a 5-figure get-out.

I'm a bit frustrated, as I think when a player tells the banker the offer they want, they shouldn't be thinking about what their target is as most players seem to do, but simply what the board is worth to them, and if the banker thinks differently they can no deal - surely it's an opportunity to haggle a bit as well which players are missing.

I think the trouble is players who are given this opportunity are, with the greatest respect, not the best board readers and even though it was an OPW today, I can't help but feel the banker got away a bit lightly and wasn't made to squirm a bit more on a dangerous board for him.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 11:25 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week

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Interesting game, I would have probably asked for £35k at 5 box, maybe i have lower aspirations than some or maybe i'm just thinking that if you ask for too much the Banker will deliberately pitch low to force you on.
It was a good game with Emma's losing out on Cops & Robbers probably saving her from a crash.

That was an amazing board though, her luck held far longer than i expected it would

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Fri May 14, 2010 11:31 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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That's the catch 22 though isn't it - the Banker wants to buy the box for as little as possible, he usually promises to confirm the offer requested if it's an honest request...and while good board readers WOULD probably have got £40,000, people like Emma probably wouldn't have, even if she asked it.

It's hard to explain, but I'm sure you know what I'm kinda on about :P

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sat May 15, 2010 12:24 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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A great antidote to yesterday's game. £31k was stingy for the board but for me anything over £30k sometimes makes me cautious if there is more than a small chance of the offer decreasing significantly (and I would have been thinking of £15k and £10k respectively for a £50k/blue and £35k/blue finish).

Good to see there was no punishment for finding the lose, the banker seeing boxes in the mood he's in would have been a very tricky situation.

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LINDY LOU

PostPosted: Sat May 15, 2010 4:27 pm    Author: LINDY LOU    Post subject: Re: 14/05 Emma - Cops & Robbers Banker's Birthday Week
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Well done Emma :smt023


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