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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:48 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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The banker says he was impressed by Roopa's bravery at the last offer.

Banker's offer:

£17,500

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Roopa says she's done what she was advised to do, and gone on one more round. She says half of her wants to go on but half wants to deal. Shahid says if the money means that much, she should probably deal. Ramesh and Caine also offer some support.

Roopa says DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Round 5 (proveout)

2 - John - £35,000

20 - newbie Ciara - £75,000

11 - Dan - 50p

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Noel says that's not OK because the £250k is still there. The banker says Roopa hasn't made a massive mistake though.

Banker's offer would've been:

£23,500

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matt26

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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Round Five Stats

Mean: £54,002.20
Median: £5,000
Absolute Balance: 5
Significant Balance: 4/5, 2
Fair Deal: £19,451.74
Volatility: 12.49


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Round 6 (proveout)

Roopa says that's a very big thing.

7 - Neide - £5,000

21 - Shahid - £1

Noel says PLEASE PLEASE don't make this £10 or £15,000 now. Roopa gets rather emotional, and the banker phones back to delay things because he's enjoying her crying!!

9 - Brad - £15,000

Banker time with £10 and £250,000 remaining

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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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I feel the Banker's Gamble is coming. I bet Noel hope's it is.


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matt26

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:56 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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Round Six Stats

Mean: £125,005
Absolute Balance: 5
Significant Balance: 3/2, 2
Fair Deal: £63,293.07
Volatility: 25,000

Has the 250k come to the table for the first time in over three months?


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:56 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Noel talks about his £250k prediction! The banker says he's finding this pain entertaining.

Banker's offer would've been:

£66,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:56 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Roopa's box 12 has £10

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:57 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Box 3 with Brenda contains the £250,000

Roopa says the £17,500 will do so much for her.

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 6:55 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Remember how we had hurriedly short edits for every game in Cheltenham Festival week 2009... except one? Yes, it was in that week that Alice's game was aired.

We're not going to get a repeat with a socially conscious, low-paid mother of Asian origin, with evidently traditional attitudes. In fact, I'd say that's bordering on a perfect storm for a third-offer Dealer. Still, we've escaped the jackpot going in the opening round, and not only that, we've only taken out £2,055! It's such a good round, Roopa turns into an American contestant. Oh, she's got dreams of living in California. You'll fit there well... blinking hell, all-blue! This is a ridiculously strong board. What are the chances of keeping the top ten at 14-box and is she only the second person to do it after Matt? The offer is just 40% of his, confirming the Banker at least wants us to get to 11-box, and preferably the ADP.

Blimey, that's even a good all-red round - although the fact it's all-red will prevent a dealable offer, because this player is going to be cautious and there's been two pre-ADP deals in the last five games. Sure enough, it's below twenty grand and she's talked into playing on. By the wings, at least, not Noel.

Fifty grand, on its own, is fine here. Especially with the 1p... £100,000 might force her to five-box here, and that is going to be deeply uncomfortable viewing. The banker-producer provides a complement for following the script, and a stick, and both were inevitable. And we get the confirmation it was, indeed, following the script: "Roopa says she's done what she was advised to do, and gone on one more round." She's got to the ADP, it's acceptable for her to Deal now, she does. In fairness, this offer was more generous than the last one, on a somewhat less stable board, and it can be seen as worthy of actual consideration for a broader group of cautious players. Me, I'd still want nearer thirty grand here.

Safety net, safety net, blue, Noel invites the OPW-denying proveout lie, he gets it. Disposable box, blue, and oh good grief we're back to December 2006 with the production team wallowing in the tears of a female contestant because the proveout went against her. Make it stop already.

Oh crumbs, just realised from Mark's comment. £17,500 is what Alice dealt at eight-box. I should never have mentioned her game. It's either going to be a Banker's Gamble (which she still might not take) or a hypothetical joke. I expect the latter. We get... well not so much the latter as Noel reminding us of his recent spin. YES! Blue on the table. Goodness me that's a relief, and Roopa is now able to reflect on what she won without fear.

Deal or No Deal isn't as bad as it used to be in spinning a questionable line on risk-taking, and I never want it to be again. Today's game was, in that regard, a very worrying one.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 7:02 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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Well, that was quite some game, a very cautious deal that almost went wrong until the last minute

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matt26

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 7:28 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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KP wrote:
This is a ridiculously strong board. What are the chances of keeping the top ten at 14-box and is she only the second person to do it after Matt?


The chances of keeping all of the top ten to 14-box are 1 in 646. As far as I know, no one else other than Swappy Matt has done it so far...


KP wrote:
Deal or No Deal isn't as bad as it used to be in spinning a questionable line on risk-taking, and I never want it to be again. Today's game was, in that regard, a very worrying one.


To be fair, Noel wasn't too bad in today's game. It was the wings more than anything else...


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 8:47 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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He wasn't as bad; most of it you could tell was pure false drama, he liked Roopa and wouldn't have suddenly turned Mr Hyde on her!

Decent game I guess...no way would the offer have gone up at 5-box, it'd have probably been another stick at £17,500 so only the final offer would have been bigger, and most of the regret would have been non-existent

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 11:48 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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greeny wrote:
I sense a mismatch of board and player...


Definitely today. A more confident and, as KP said, a player who didn't display a cultural aversion to gambling, would have got far bigger offers today.

Deal was right for her but not for the board. £66k on a £250k/peanuts final 2 is relatively equivalent in terms of % of the mean to approximately old faithful on a £100k/peanuts final 2 and around £20k on a £75k/peanuts final 2 so was probably a truthful proveout.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 12:18 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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Can't really fault Roopa for that, the money clearly meant a lot to her and it was clearly a big (slightly reluctant) gamble for her even to go to 8 box. I'm not that sure how that offer compared to the actual value of the board but following a round where she found 2 of the P5 she was very lucky the Banker didn't drop the offer. Nine times out of ten he would have really punished someone for that round, even allowing for the 1p, and probably tried to force her to the very end.

Really Roopa was just unlucky in that having decided to deal she failed to find the £250k

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Old Faithful

PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 12:33 am    Author: Old Faithful    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa
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I would've loved Huddy to have had a board like that for his game 8)


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 12:52 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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KP wrote:
Remember how we had hurriedly short edits for every game in Cheltenham Festival week 2009... except one? Yes, it was in that week that Alice's game was aired.


Yes, I remember - I think on one of the episodes, the Endemol Logo hit David on the shoulder, which must've been very painful...

Anyway, on to today's game - an interesting one. In one way, as people have said, she was indeed lucky to get a stick after a pretty awful round taking out two of the power 5 (albeit with the penny), but on the other hand, personally I thought the board was worth a bit more. But it was the right decision for Roopa, which was more important.

I actually don't think the 5-box offer was that inflated given the 5k and 15k were still there. I'd have taken it, as the offer on blue/250k can vary dramatically. Still the £250k doesn't come to the table! :shock:

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Tom

PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 11:51 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 16/03 Roopa

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As people have said, a mismatch between board and player.

Not that I have any problems with her deal, it was reasonable in her circumstances.


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