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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 5:57 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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That was one heck of a brave gamble, I was sure he would deal at 5-Box, can't believe he went on...

...and the winning streak has once again been destroyed

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Phil 09

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 5:58 pm    Author: Phil 09    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Should have dealt at £21,008. That has put a dampener on what was a fantastic week.

Entertainment value otherwise was fantastic and made sweeter with the quickfire round but I think he went one No Deal too far. Bravery doesn't always pay off and Gaz was the classic example of that.

Phil.

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matt26

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 6:00 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:47 pm
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No sympathy for Gaz whatsoever. He turned down three amazingly generous offers that were practically the mean on unstable boards, and anyone who gambles that recklessly with such an inability to read the board IMO doesn't deserve to win a huge sum of money. It's as if the show has reverted back to this time three years ago. Hopefully Sunday's show will prove that this is a one-off.

Now, normally I try and look at both points of view regarding dealing and no dealing, but in this scenario it was simply reckless chasing of the £100,000, and I can't restrain myself from this sort of thing. Hopefully I won't have to say anything like this again for a very long time...


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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 6:04 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Considering that 4 amounts were lower than £21,008, well it has to be a generous offer

Such a shame that Gaz didn't realise that...

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greeny

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 6:11 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

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Like I said earlier - no sympathy from me whatsoever. He had 3 offers which were screaming out to be dealt, and he took none of them in the pursuit of 100k - reckless gambling which thankfully didn't pay off.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 6:47 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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When was the last time such generous offers were received and rejected? Even Corinne never turned down anything this generous relative to the mean!

The board wasn't even stable - even the second offer was practically double the FD and genuinely dealable.

After the third I wondered if he was chasing a £20k target so weirdly I didn't want him to take the five-box offer as it would've made the eleven-box gamble completely inexplicable. As it is, he went all the way and showed little intention of doing anything else - ultimately paid the penalty for it.

Big reality check to interrupt a fantastic streak of games.

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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 7:38 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Thank you Gaz for suddenly making me feel 3 years younger! :)

He's ruined his namesakes' almost perfect record anyway.

But - if someone was going to win a blue, perversely I prefer it to be like that than if someone is forced on with terrible offers.

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travis P

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 7:39 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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KP wrote:
After the third I wondered if he was chasing a £20k target so weirdly I didn't want him to take the five-box offer as it would've made the eleven-box gamble completely inexplicable.


His brother showed signs he was a £20K targetist to what he told Gaz before the five box phone call, but it revealed Gaz would rather chase for the glory.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 8:18 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Insanely generous offers throughout the game, I think I'd have declined the £15,008 because of the four smallest still there and the opportunity of a great round, same with the £11,008 but the gambling would definitely have stopped at £21,008 for me - without a Power 5 backup we've not seen a £20,000+ offer on a £100,000 top prize 5-box in years!

And fair play, if he believed in box 8 instead of feeling let down by the £100,000 going and wanting to risk it being unlucky to him, I reckon he'd have swapped for it to win a very consolative £20,000...but instead we get a cast-iron crash to prove just how unfortunate players mostly are when making brave No Deals on the show.

And the banned forum members wonder why so many players don't make great risks? This is why...and for the record we can even use Corinne's game to see why too!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 10:27 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Just for the record, the offer % for this game

Offer 1: 60.3% of mean, 158% of FD
Offer 2: 60% of mean, 178% of FD
Offer 3: 88.75% of mean, 225.5% of FD
Offer 4: 72.8% of mean, 278.5% of FD
Offer 5: 86.8% of mean, 208.8% of FD

Noel mentioned the other day about contestants people enjoy seeing fail and I have to admit, today was one of those. I gave up deciding what I would have done after the 3rd offer as that was an easy deal for me.

Yes, people have to take risks to win big money but when you do it 3 times when the reward doesn't outweigh the risk, then you have to accept the consequences of the gamble going wrong.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 12:20 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

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I think we're all pretty much agreed Gaz pushed his luck one round too far there. I don't think there's many people here who wouldn't have taken that 5 box offer (and a few who might have bowed out earlier)

Of course the reason the Banker gave him such generous offers was because he knew this was a player who was prepared to chase the big money and ultimately it was Gaz's ambition - as Courtney called it - that saved him a lot of money.

What i don't understand is why having taken out the £100k he then went on to play box 8. Given the emphasis he placed on the box it seemed foolish not to leave it till the final two. That i think was actually a worse decision than no dealing the £21k

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 12:38 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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I know Gaz seemed the type of player to completely ignore the composition of the board but given Huddy's statistical analysis yesterday, I wonder if he even gave Gaz the average compared to some of the offers today (even if Gaz would have ignored the advice anyway).

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Craig

PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 1:05 am    Author: Craig    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:33 pm
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Have to admit I'm gutted that happened. I can understand why he took them gambles, your only there once for the life-changing amounts and he gave it his best shot.

I know what it takes to change your life around, its extremely hard, for him to do that and do so well...he won't need this show to do well in life, he will do great and I wish him all the luck for it. Enjoy £750 Gaz, you gave it your best shot! :-D


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unclekevo

PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 10:47 am    Author: unclekevo    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Absolutely no sympathy for him whatsoever. For someone who said he was doing it for a good cause he was extremely reckless. Better boards have had worse offers than that, let's not forget that Aimee, Debs etc had better boards and were offered similar/worse offers. Gaz was reckless and paid no heed to any advice, something that I predicted from the way he never gave good advice when he was on the wings. TBH when he got cocky and foolish I was really glad that he got a blue because he deserved £750.

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James1978

PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 12:25 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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It's times like this I wish the Wakeyteers weren't banned - it would have been nice for them to appreciate what it was like for the rest of us when they were criticising cautious deals in the same way most people are criticising Gaz for being reckless! :)

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 1:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Games like this were almost two-a-penny in early 2007 and I criticised each one of them because I felt they pretty much all deserved it, and also because I felt Noel had to have had a hand in it!

I've over-reacted since on this forum, usually because I'm impulsively thinking 'please don't let this turn into early 2007...' even if it never comes close!!

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matt26

PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 1:31 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:47 pm
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Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
I think we're all pretty much agreed Gaz pushed his luck one round too far there. I don't think there's many people here who wouldn't have taken that 5 box offer (and a few who might have bowed out earlier)

Of course the reason the Banker gave him such generous offers was because he knew this was a player who was prepared to chase the big money and ultimately it was Gaz's ambition - as Courtney called it - that saved him a lot of money.

What i don't understand is why having taken out the £100k he then went on to play box 8. Given the emphasis he placed on the box it seemed foolish not to leave it till the final two. That i think was actually a worse decision than no dealing the £21k


The thing is, other big risk-takers, such as Corinne, seemed to be, from what we can tell, much more prepared to take the risks than he was. Corinne didn't want the money for anything other than the Bentley, whereas in Gaz' case he'd personalised it by saying that he'd give some of the money to his parents, and thus his risk-taking is much more questionable. And when Corinne turned down 31k at 5-box, there was the potential for a huge 2-box offer (which she did indeed get), but not so in Gaz' game. The way I see it, to make a 5-box gamble on a one box game worth it, you should be expecting to get an offer at least 250% of what you turned down before. In this case, such an increase would be impossible unless he kept the 20k along with the 100k, and since that was only a 10% chance, statistically the decision can be considered more foolish than Corinne's were.

Then again, if everybody made decisions relying solely on reading the board, DOND would be much less interesting and exciting. And if he'd won 100k he'd be remembered as being brave rather than foolish by a lot of people...


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 3:07 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Simple facts were, Corinne was braced for either outcome...Gaz appeared to be too, but the typical human reactions sank in like a stone once the game crashed...he's only young and all etc.

Still, it'll prove to be a painful lesson learned for him hopefully! Wish him all the best! :)

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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:23 am    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz

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Think the reaction to this game is largely unreasonable. He was simply a targetist - just not the with normal 20k target. He wanted to change his life. 21k wouldn't do it, so he chased for a hundered grand. His decision.

In any event, although the offers were more generous than the normally derisory amounts, they were never automatic deals. Doubt I'd ever take anything below 25k unless it was above mean either.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 2:38 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Gaz
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Now I've had time to dwell on it, I simply think that despite him being more reckless than brave, deep down as Deal fans we wanted to see him pull off the good round he wanted!

We'd all have been singing a different tune if he got the all-blue round...or even choosing to keep box 8 to have a chance of recovering to a £20,000 win which is what I honestly thought he'd end up doing!

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