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Brick

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:17 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney
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Tuned in when I got home, they were at 11-box. First game I'd seen with no knowledge of what was going to happen in quite some time.

Probably exactly the sort of game Endemol want from a 19-year-old; a lot of them have some debts to clear but still have enough of a rebellious streak not to cut and run the instant their head tells them to. With 4 higher than the offer at 8-box, £12.5k was probably right to reject (my board-reading skills seem to have got rusty of late), £19k was less clear cut - I was sat there thinking I'd have taken it.

Was annoyed when the banker rang up at 3-box to make an offer - would he have done that if Tom had dealt £9k yesterday? Offers at that stage would have been seen in a good light if he had, maybe that's the argument, even though Courtney had a very different, much more stable trio on the board. Was glad when she said outright that she wasn't falling for any mind games and played on - thankfully she didn't find the £100k as that could have left scope for a more punishing offer.

Half tempted to dismiss that £35k curveball for the same reasons as Courtney and call that an outright win! Enjoy the money!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 7:38 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney
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Welcome to another edition of The Hypocrisy Show with your host, Noel Edmonds!

Chip shop worker, 19 years old, doubtless not exactly a high earner, stage should be set for a cautious Deal after yesterday's regrets (yes, they weren't a result of the gamble per se, but it's still regrets after a blue win, and that's something that regularly overrides any attempts to goad the next player into gambling).

Well that's a turn-up. Using up a significant number first, and revealing the penny. And that's better than some all-blue openers - £1,101.11 taken out, compared to £1,650 for taking out the top five blues (someone did that once, didn't they?). The opening offer is designed to look properly good on the face of it, but in practice is there to make sure she chases it if she gets a weaker board later.

Now, what's the RAF motto? "Through Adversity to the Stars". Thank goodness it wasn't the SAS motto... offer is ever-so-slightly higher after a perfectly good round, is obviously rejected... boom, there goes the £250k, and... not a joke offer? Colour me shocked!

Top comedy at the start of the round, big hit at the end of it, and now it's a two-box game, albeit with middle reds for company. Rubbish offer here to push her to five-box? Not quite, but it's quite deliberately and obnoxiously just below the opening offer. Courtney asks for advice, gets told that she's no longer contractually obligated to gamble, but does so anyway.

And that round will do! Now, does the banker-producer want a No Deal? Yes, he's stuck it deliberately just below the £20k psychological breakpoint, Noel uses the B-word, and Courtney promptly takes the hint.

Fairness to her, I'd be going on too, but I'm genuinely unsure a presumably low-waged chip shop worker should be taking this on.

There's the middle red... there's a blue!... and the producer is worried there might be an all-or-peanuts finish and wants to make absolutely sure that the last gamble gets rewarded, so we get a three-box offer from nowhere. Just make it a permanent part of the format already - with or without a regular four-box offer. Oh she's on autopilot.

Sure enough, all-or-peanuts.

Oh, the producer is making absolutely, disgracefully sure that we don't get a blue win by gambling. Even killersbee would consider it, and it's enough to make Courtney see sense. And a blue in the box!

And because that game went well, we can expect more goading and manipulation tomorrow. What's on ITV daytime these days?

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Joey

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 7:57 pm    Author: Joey    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:59 pm
Location: Manchester
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KP wrote:
Welcome to another edition of The Hypocrisy Show with your host, Noel Edmonds!

Chip shop worker, 19 years old, doubtless not exactly a high earner, stage should be set for a cautious Deal after yesterday's regrets (yes, they weren't a result of the gamble per se, but it's still regrets after a blue win, and that's something that regularly overrides any attempts to goad the next player into gambling).

Well that's a turn-up. Using up a significant number first, and revealing the penny. And that's better than some all-blue openers - £1,101.11 taken out, compared to £1,650 for taking out the top five blues (someone did that once, didn't they?). The opening offer is designed to look properly good on the face of it, but in practice is there to make sure she chases it if she gets a weaker board later.

Now, what's the RAF motto? "Through Adversity to the Stars". Thank goodness it wasn't the SAS motto... offer is ever-so-slightly higher after a perfectly good round, is obviously rejected... boom, there goes the £250k, and... not a joke offer? Colour me shocked!

Top comedy at the start of the round, big hit at the end of it, and now it's a two-box game, albeit with middle reds for company. Rubbish offer here to push her to five-box? Not quite, but it's quite deliberately and obnoxiously just below the opening offer. Courtney asks for advice, gets told that she's no longer contractually obligated to gamble, but does so anyway.

And that round will do! Now, does the banker-producer want a No Deal? Yes, he's stuck it deliberately just below the £20k psychological breakpoint, Noel uses the B-word, and Courtney promptly takes the hint.

Fairness to her, I'd be going on too, but I'm genuinely unsure a presumably low-waged chip shop worker should be taking this on.

There's the middle red... there's a blue!... and the producer is worried there might be an all-or-peanuts finish and wants to make absolutely sure that the last gamble gets rewarded, so we get a three-box offer from nowhere. Just make it a permanent part of the format already - with or without a regular four-box offer. Oh she's on autopilot.

Sure enough, all-or-peanuts.

Oh, the producer is making absolutely, disgracefully sure that we don't get a blue win by gambling. Even killersbee would consider it, and it's enough to make Courtney see sense. And a blue in the box!

And because that game went well, we can expect more goading and manipulation tomorrow. What's on ITV daytime these days?

Yawn!


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travis P

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:04 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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KP wrote:
Welcome to another edition of The Hypocrisy Show with your host, Noel Edmonds!

And because that game went well, we can expect more goading and manipulation tomorrow.


Oh come on David, give it up. Your one man crusade against the show and Noel by "reading between the lines" hasn't and isn't getting you anywhere.

KP wrote:
What's on ITV daytime these days?


Deal or No Deal Your Antiques, aka Dickinson's Real Deal. Divided goes into production next week for series two.


Last edited by travis P on Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:05 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney
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Why hasn't my crusade got anywhere? Because there's too much else right with the show. Doesn't mean everything's right with it.

Amused at Joey's response, though!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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travis P

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:19 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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KP wrote:
Why hasn't my crusade got anywhere? Because there's too much else right with the show. Doesn't mean everything's right with it.


Yet you bang on about the show advertising gambling but most people doesn't actually care. Nearly all game shows feature a gambling aspect, so DoND brings nothing new.


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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:36 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:47 pm
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I can't help but wonder why you follow the show so much when it clearly makes you angry...

Anyway, a great show today! It combined a great start with a solid board throughout the game, which is a breath of fresh air after all the rubbish starts we've seen recently. £19k and £35k were interesting offers and for many people (including myself) would have been difficult decisions. 30k was a no-brainer deal though. I'd have probably taken 35k myself, because knowing what the banker can be like he'd normally offer 20-25k for a blue versus 100k, and 15-20k for a blue versus 75k. Had I known the offer wouldbe 30k on a blue versus 100k, I might have gone the other way.

But yeah, the perfect game to counter Tom's yesterday. Not quite an OPW, but it feels like one.


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:41 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Blimey, she scared the life out of me when I thought she was going to turn down the £30,000 - but I thought that was an excellent game.

I thought it worth risking the £35k for the 1 in 3 chance of the Lance finish, though a joke offer would have worried me slightly, I don't think they'd have tried it again after Shell's game.

I'm glad she didn't let the unexpected put her off though, unlike Tom's game yesterday it was a completely different situation due to being 2 big numbers and 1 blue, rather than the other way round. Not bothered with it not being an OPW either becuase I'd have been more annoyed if the banker had stopped her at 3-box then she could have had the Lance finish (a bit like he did with Demolition Declan). :)

But great to have everyone picked up after yesterday's disaster!

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:24 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Yes, an excellent game today and quite tense at the end with the 3-box offer (which I thought was coming) that was a difficult decision for most, but a sensible deal for £30k in the end, and even better when she only had £10 in the box! Courtney was one of my favourites on the wings so I'm glad she got a decent wedge out of her game.

Going back to the £35k at 3-box, I think I'd have gone on with a 1 in 3 chance of the Lance finish and no complete peanuts final offer, and hopefully not a joke one, which as James says is probably less likely due to what happened in Shell's game.

Speaking of finishes, I was looking through my stats earlier, and with Al recently having the first ever 10p/ £750 finish, that leaves just 2 final 2's yet to appear, these being:
10p/£1,000 and £250/£250,000
Although that's probably of no interest to anyone, just thought I'd point it out... :D

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:30 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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Wow! That was my favourite game of the month, heck it's proably my favourite game of series 4. I loved every minute of it.

I thought Courtney was a joy to watch, yes she's gorgeous but she was also bubbly and funny and full of energy. And in response to KP's analysis above i have to counter that I have absolutely no doubt she knew her own mind. She wasn't coaxed or goaded into playing on at any point, as good as the offers were Courtney could tell she had a strong board, and while she was clearly aware that it could all go Pete Tong at any time she was prepared to take the risk right up to two box when the 50/50 odds were too risky to ignore. In her own words "I'm ambitious but i'm not stupid"

The boxes were kind to Courtney as well, how long has it been since we've seen a game where the lowest offer was £11k? Heck some players are lucky if their highest offer is over £10k. :D

I loved the symetry of the first round too, don't know if anyone else even noticed but the first 5 boxes were all sums starting in 1 - 1p 10p £1 £1,000 & £100. She did something similar in round 4 as well when she found £50 £5000 & £50,000 in successive boxes (though not neccessarily in that order)

Kudos to the Banker for his very clever 3 box offer which effectively saved him from an official spanking. With hindsight perhaps Courtney should have taken it or at least asked what the next offer would potentialy be dependant on which box she took out next but really a loss of £5 is barely significant on that scale and let's face it - she sold a £10 box for £30k, that's a good result in anyone's book :smt023

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:13 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney
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killersbee wrote:
Well, she takes it which is sort of alright...


In my book, £30k on that configuration is the kind of offer I'm dealing in an instant.

The other 2 offers in the game, £19k at 5 box and £35k and 3 box were more difficult to decide on.

At 5 box, the EV was probably about 150% of the offer and probably worth no-dealing with only 10% chance of total disaster and the 20% backup of around £5k.
At 3 box, even though the EV was around £43k, the odds were that the offer would go down and without knowing how the banker was going to react on a red/blue finish, it was a huge gamble to take. Luckily, Courtney got rewarded with a very generous 2 box offer.

Fascinating game though and great viewing.

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nevadajo7

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:43 am    Author: nevadajo7    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 10:45 pm
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just watched courtney's game (i sky+ it) well done young lady - fabulous game, great result :D


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wkd

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:39 am    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:04 pm
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Does only serve to prove that most players would be better taking an early offer and going with a few thousand. As most of them aren't prepared to go to the very end, they'd be as well going early as they are risking disaster, when in fact, in order to win a substantial sum, they are chasing not just a big number in the box, but a big last two numbers.

Thirty grand is a huge sum and well done to her, but I can't believe it was worth all the effort and risk of getting to the stage she got to, when she could have walked with a safe five figure sum after round one.


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A Banker Spanking

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:31 am    Author: A Banker Spanking    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney
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A good game from Courtney. Had a feeling she would win a lot being a chatterbox in the wings and getting involved in others games.

Didnt like the banker offering 35k on a 3 box. Its kind of unfair. Turned it into a small farce. So for me that doesnt count. 30k for a blue 8)


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AnneM

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:30 pm    Author: AnneM    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney
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:smt023 A good show and a delightful young lady, well done Courtney, enjoy your good fortune.


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lcc

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 2:02 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 25/01 Courtney

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
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yeah great game it was nice to see someone decide on there boxes quick which to open ...as it is random


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