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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:45 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Round 5

16 - Dave - £100

19 - Al - £35,000

Noel says that one box changes it completely.

11 - Tracey - £10,000

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:45 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Noel says the game is now on a cliffhanger.

Banker's offer:

£3,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:48 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Nat discusses it with her friend. Noel says she should hold on to the clover and get rid of her finger and her friend! The banker phones back and talks to Nat and tries to find her target again! She tells him that she'll tell him if he offers her it!

Noel looks in the book and sees Nat's target and the banker phones back and tries to get Noel to tell him what it is but he doesn't. :P

The banker says Nat can go on one box at a time.

Nat says NO DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:49 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Round 6 (part 1)

Noel gets Mo to stand in front of the £75k on the gameboard.

4 - Dawn - £250

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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The banker tries to get Noel to tell him the target again :lol:

Banker's offer:

£7,500

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Nat says DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Round 6 (part 2) (proveout)

7 - Jean - £75,000 :D

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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The banker can be heard saying "no no no no no no" down the phone!

Banker's offer would've been:

£75

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Round 6 (part 3) (proveout)

15 - Laura - 10p

Banker time with £1 and £750

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Banker's offer would've been:

£250

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Nat has £750 in her box 17

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Box 12 with Glenda contains the £1

Noel reveals that Nat's target was £5,000

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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:44 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Well, a 4-Box Deal that pays off, you don't see that happen everyday :)

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 8:20 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Decent game...it never got going due to that horrible round midgame...but well done for whopping the £75,000 out straight after the deal!

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 8:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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It's the show after a Power 5 box win, and h2005 does not report upon an incitement to gamble in the introduction, merely a mention of both extremes and other 'clubs'. Hurrah! It's an unprepared player, but one with a lucky charm; both could possibly indicate being easily swayed but this game is entirely unpredictable. Two part-time jobs, neither known for being well-paid, so we have someone who could use a good five-figure result.

Well there goes the jackpot again, but nothing else properly red, so potential for this to be another board where the stability alone pushes the player deep into the game. COMEDY OFFER! It's probably not far away from the FD either. TARGETIST! Not that this much mattered yesterday.

The probability of the jackpot failing to make it to the first phone call in three consecutive games is just over 1 in 85. The probability of two consecutive games in which a six-figure win is already impossible at the first commercial break is... (does fiddly calculations...) precisely 1 in 121, if I've got the maths right. Suffice to say, that's a sign of some pretty rubbish starts this week.

And this one gets worse. Joke offer, as opposed to a comedy offer (which is a non-round offer designed for a bit of fun - 'comedy offer' and 'joke offer' are mutually exclusive, although few comedy offers are truly intended to take the player out unless there's already a theme going like Sunday's game).

All-blue round! With the penny in it! Joke offer ag... nope, that's properly dealable for a cautious contestant you know! Especially now it's been bumped up another 10%! She's never going to take an 11-box offer after a Power 5 box win though.

These games aren't half picking up momentum in the middle rounds lately - even £15,000 is suddenly no more than a minor hit again as the £75,000 has two higher backups for company. Wouldn't care to say the board is skewed towards the Banker now, certainly no more than a tiny bit; the offer isn't bad, but not as good as the last one, and kudos to Nat for turning it down more quickly than the last one, proof that she's not one of those 'the game starts at eight-box' types, the single worst type of cautious contestant.

One-box game... borderline joke offer, the producer wants another gambling frenzy. Oh she's been spooked a bit by the volatility, so the producer goads her on with the old trick, four- and three-box offers from nowhere. Just make it a permanent part of the format and get over it.

Anyway, we obviously go on... blue... half the mean on a high-volatility board, I'd want a producer guarantee to turn that down, Nat is out of here before we can get one, and the OPW streak is broken thanks to the revision at 11-box. And only by said revision! Surely the closest we've ever come to four OPWs on the spin, and the very low target confirms that we had a cautious, low-income player today. Would she have got the 11-box OPW had she played yesterday instead? No; even if she'd taken the £8,000, and I wouldn't have blamed her in her circumstances, the four-box offer would have been in five figures.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 9:48 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Well given her target was only £5k, then the deal at £7.5k was absolutely right for her. Interesting that she was prepared to deal for £5k at 5 box with 3 to open (which would have been a rather cautious deal but again the right decision).

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matt26

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 11:51 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat

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KP wrote:
The probability of the jackpot failing to make it to the first phone call in three consecutive games is just over 1 in 85. The probability of two consecutive games in which a six-figure win is already impossible at the first commercial break is... (does fiddly calculations...) precisely 1 in 121, if I've got the maths right. Suffice to say, that's a sign of some pretty rubbish starts this week.


Wow, that's pretty atrocious in terms of misfortune... Still, all three of them got a good sum of money out of the game, and at the end of the day that's what matters most.


KP wrote:
These games aren't half picking up momentum in the middle rounds lately - even £15,000 is suddenly no more than a minor hit again as the £75,000 has two higher backups for company. Wouldn't care to say the board is skewed towards the Banker now, certainly no more than a tiny bit; the offer isn't bad, but not as good as the last one, and kudos to Nat for turning it down more quickly than the last one, proof that she's not one of those 'the game starts at eight-box' types, the single worst type of cautious contestant.


The cautious people who turn down a statistically generous offer, only to later accept a statistically derisory offer that's lower in absolute terms are worse IMO *cough1kMichaelcough*.


KP wrote:
One-box game... borderline joke offer, the producer wants another gambling frenzy. Oh she's been spooked a bit by the volatility, so the producer goads her on with the old trick, four- and three-box offers from nowhere. Just make it a permanent part of the format and get over it.


Making one box at a time after 5 box a permanent change would be quite interesting, actually. Maybe if this version ever gets cancelled and another one appears later on...

KP wrote:
Anyway, we obviously go on... blue... half the mean on a high-volatility board, I'd want a producer guarantee to turn that down, Nat is out of here before we can get one, and the OPW streak is broken thanks to the revision at 11-box. And only by said revision! Surely the closest we've ever come to four OPWs on the spin, and the very low target confirms that we had a cautious, low-income player today. Would she have got the 11-box OPW had she played yesterday instead? No; even if she'd taken the £8,000, and I wouldn't have blamed her in her circumstances, the four-box offer would have been in five figures.


Well spotted! There must have been 4 OPWs in a row at some point though, surely? This game also breaks the run of four consecutive reds on the table.


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 12:17 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat

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A very funny game if not a spectacular one. Some interesting offers along the way (when was the last time the Banker reduced an offer because of something said on the wings? - seems ages ago) and for a lady with such a low target in mind there were some surprising no deals.

Not quite a victory over the Banker as technically she could have had £500 more but Nat made a healthy profit on her box which is what really matters.

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 12:52 am    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat

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Almost seems traditional that the people who play the day after a big win usually end up struggling. But I have to say the entertainment value made up for that, and there seem to be lots of good peronalities coming to light at the moment (I bet Justin is in for some laughs in between Jean and Joyce, and Jo looks funny too - heck all the middle of the west wing are Js!). Nat herself was a surprise early-ish player and she was funny, especially as we hadn't had much idea of it on the wings!

Also love the way Mo is cancelling out what he did in his first few shows with a run of blues, and at important times too! :)

I have to admit I thought her target was higher than it really was. Also find it hard to believe there was no promised 3-box offer on condition of finding a blue, I know from past experience it tends to be high-teens in that sort of situation! Good she got out at the right time though.

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Brick

PostPosted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:34 am    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 19/01 Nat
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Good fun game from Nat today. Her modest but adaptable ambitions worked well for the board she had; I dare say on a different day we'd have had a trainwreck game we'd be looking forward to forgetting. 4-box was the big decision really, the offer would either shoot up or crash completely depending on the next box - I'd have been tempted to do the same as Nat today but there was a good argument for going on.

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