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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:04 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Simon F wrote:
The offer isn't £26k.

It did seem rather low. I think he's still messing about as £33k still seems a little low for a player like Israel seems to be.

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:05 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Israel says he can do more than the 3 things he wanted to do.

Israel says

DEAL

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:05 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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£23k to win £42k - it all depends on how much he is willing to go away with £10k if the gamble goes wrong.

And he isn't, so it's a deal.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:06 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Oh no, not the hypo-deal. I guess after 2 blue wins, Noel is trying to engineer a feel-good ending.

And it's failed.

An OPW in my eyes.

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Last edited by Simon F on Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:06 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Noel asks Israel if he would have swapped if he got this far, and Israel says he would have, so Noel does the hypo-swap

Israel now has box 3 which contains £75,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:06 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Freddie opens box 18 which contains the £10,000

Noel says he thoroughly enjoyed that game, and Israel says he did as well :D

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Mark

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:07 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel

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He probably would have got a swap. Should have had more faith in box 3. But still a good win.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:10 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Well, that Hypo-Swap came form out of nowhere

But at least he had the luck on his side, at last :D

Ah well, bring on The Santa vs. Scrooge week with The Banker in high spirits...

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:13 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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killersbee wrote:
Well, that Hypo-Swap came form out of nowhere

But at least he had the luck on his side, at last :D

Ah well, bring on The Santa vs. Scrooge week with The Banker in high spirits...


An almost power 5 territory OPW won't make the banker too happy.

Working out the expected value of the 2 box offer from 5 box, it was approximately what Israel got offered so the no-deal was certainly brave. Glad it worked out and it was clear that even though he showed gambling tendencies, £23k wasn't an amount he was prepared to lose on a coin-flip (reference intentional for another show in about 15 minutes time).

The win almost doubles the weeks payout.

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matt26

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:20 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel

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Simon F wrote:
An almost power 5 territory OPW won't make the banker too happy.


In the eyes of the people on the show, it would be an OBW, since Israel would have won the big money by swapping had he gone on.

Not that it wasn't a good game, mind you. I'd have taken £16,500 myself. Well done on £33,000, Israel! :D


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A Banker Spanking

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:25 pm    Author: A Banker Spanking    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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At Last Bravery is rewarded! :D

Players like Israel are what make the show. He looked genuinely overjoyed at winning 33k and what it will do for his family. Enjoy the 33k and Florida! :smt114


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:29 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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The box Israel sold to the Banker at the time of the deal contained £10,000. So it's an OPW. Not that such a classification means anything to anybody other than a few internet nerds like me anyway.

And where did that hypo-swap come from? I didn't see that the Banker confirmed the swap would definitely have been offered anyway...

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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:30 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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MisterAl wrote:
And where did that hypo-swap come from anyway? I didn't see that the Banker confirmed the swap would definitely have been offered anyway...

Perhaps it was a part of his system that he didn't share with us...

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matt26

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:45 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel

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MisterAl wrote:
The box Israel sold to the Banker at the time of the deal contained £10,000. So it's an OPW. Not that such a classification means anything to anybody other than a few internet nerds like me anyway.

And where did that hypo-swap come from? I didn't see that the Banker confirmed the swap would definitely have been offered anyway...


Yes, the general ruling on here is that it's an OPW. The thing is, no such distinctions are iven on the show itself. So Noel, the banker and the contestants will treat it as an OBW, since theoretically he would have won £75k, since he would have swapped. People on here will consider it an OPW, but no one else will.

Here's the thing though. Contestants are told to play on as they would have done had they said no deal. That includes any potential swaps they may have done. Think about it this way. Imagine that there's a football match between Manchester and Chelsea. You can either bet £10 on Manchester (who are more likely to win), or £40 on Chelsea, or simply stick with all your money. If you originally were going to bet on Manchester, but then changed your mind to Chelsea shortly before the game began, and Chelsea won, then technically you've lost out on £40 rather than the £10 you would have bet on Manchester. Do you see where I'm coming from here?


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:46 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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matt26 wrote:
Simon F wrote:
An almost power 5 territory OPW won't make the banker too happy.


In the eyes of the people on the show, it would be an OBW, since Israel would have won the big money by swapping had he gone on.

Not that it wasn't a good game, mind you. I'd have taken £16,500 myself. Well done on £33,000, Israel! :D


When a player deals at 5 box or earlier, hypo-swaps could be justified because we don't know for certain whether would have turned down the last offer but when the player deals at 2 box, I definitely ignore them.

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:55 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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matt26 wrote:
Yes, the general ruling on here is that it's an OPW. The thing is, no such distinctions are iven on the show itself. So Noel, the banker and the contestants will treat it as an OBW, since theoretically he would have won £75k, since he would have swapped. People on here will consider it an OPW, but no one else will.

I strongly suspect that Noel and the Banker will take advantage of the ambiguity so that they can spin it whichever way they please.

Besides, like I said before, at no point did we see the Banker confirm that he'd have even offered the swap today.

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rico7

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:06 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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Very brave to no deal at 5 box and it paid off!

Well done Israel on 33K :)


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 8:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel
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One post for the last regular game... of the decade?

Given that job description we have someone who doesn't need the money nearly as much as most contestants. Conflicting advice... blue tops, blue numbers... great start however he got it. "The most baffling game to date"? Has he not seen what's on in an hour on Five?

Hahaha a rolling ticker on DoND. Can't they use that permanently to show the odds? Actually, it's a wonder the US don't do that already. COMEDY OFFER! Not bad but not enough.

Damaging third round so we're going to the ADP at least. Remember, from tomorrow, the ADP moves from eight-box to five. And he deviates from his system and hits a mid-red as a result. IRONY! Offer is actually quite decent considering. Peggy says what we're all thinking. What an ironic day to air this episode.

Blue... blue!... boom. Israel buys into the positivity spin... cracking round! The Banker pulls out a forgotten recurring motif from days of old... it's still not enough! With the £10k backup, I'd be tempted to go on - it's one of those I wouldn't have gone for before but quite likely would now. Definitely arguable either way... and it goes the right way!

Mildly surprised for him to say £26,000 is "more than life-changing". I'd definitely gamble this if it was £100,000 to play for, but with £75k? Probably, just about, a Deal. And he was a targetist. Fair enough.

"I strongly suspect that Noel and the Banker will take advantage of the ambiguity so that they can spin it whichever way they please." 'Course they will. In this case, to spin it as a potential £75k win to goad the players on next week.

Still, it's better than Heads or Fails.

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matt26

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:57 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel

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MisterAl wrote:
I strongly suspect that Noel and the Banker will take advantage of the ambiguity so that they can spin it whichever way they please.


I'm fairly sure that they've always considered the box they swapped for as determining the victory or fall without twisting it either way. Granted, this is based on games I've seen in seasons 2, 3 and 5 (I didn't watch any of season 4 at all), so correct me if I'm wrong.

KP wrote:
Damaging third round so we're going to the ADP at least. Remember, from tomorrow, the ADP moves from eight-box to five. And he deviates from his system and hits a mid-red as a result.



Pardon my ignorance, but what does ADP mean?


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greeny

PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:05 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 20/12 Israel

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Acceptable Deal Point


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