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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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That is not the round we wanted says Noel, and this is now precarious. The Banker says he is a relieved man, and he was 1 box away from a £30,000 offer.

Banker's offer:

£7,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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Carl says the £7,000 would clear his debts. Ronnie tells Carl this is a similar situation to Mike's game now, and has he got the courage to go home with 1p

Carl says

DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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Proveout Round 6

22 - £3,000 Andrew

13 - £1,000 Emma

20 - 1p Newbie Neil

Banker time with £50 and £75,000 remaining

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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In gameplay terms you made a mistake says Noel.

Banker's offer would've been:

£22,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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Noel opens box 7 and reveals £50

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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Box 14 with Bert contains the £75,000

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 6:04 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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So, yesterday's game didn't prove anything and were back to this again :roll:

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James1978

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 8:29 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl

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killersbee wrote:
So, yesterday's game didn't prove anything and were back to this again :roll:


So by "this", you mean someone playing the board and playing on when it's good, then stopping when it becomes a one-box game with a decent get-out? :?

I have to admit that was a bit frustrating that he went too late then too early, but thought all his decisions were perfectly sound - definitely worth playing on at 8-box with £250k backed up by two other power 5's, then £7k on a one-box game with the £75k is back up with 06/early 07 levels. I've become used to £2k - £3k jokes on boards like that!

Just shows how one box can make such a massive difference.

Oh, and great to see so much fun and energy for a man in his 70s, it always feels better that way instead of going on about debts and ill relatives and such.....

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wokoman88

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 8:30 pm    Author: wokoman88    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl

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killersbee wrote:
So, yesterday's game didn't prove anything and were back to this again :roll:



What?

Players dealing for lots more than the box is actually worth? That's good isn't it?

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:48 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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Getting a feeling of 8-box boards deja vu this week

Monday: £250k, £75k, £35k, £10k and change
Tuesday: £250k, £50k, £35k, £10k and change
Wednesday: £75k, £10k and change
Today £250k, £75k, £35k and change

£250k still on the board 3 days out of 4, as was the £75k, £35k and £10k.

Tough decision for Carl today just like Monday's and Tuesday's games. Can't blame him for dealing a half-decent offer at 5 box and luckily the box contents stopped it from being an OPL.

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Last edited by Simon F on Thu Nov 26, 2009 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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One-post recap.

Is it going to start with an opportunity to snark at Noel for using Clare's gambling as an example for everyone else to follow, even if it's patently wrong for them? Not directly - he chooses to riff on the theme of 'it's my lucky day'. Perhaps that's even more dangerous, but it was central to Clare's game, so I'll let him off.

Who would want to live in a family of 17 kids when one of them's a DJ? Not me! Also, are the shops around the Dream Factory really shut on Sundays? Surely you'd just go to the city centre anyway, it's not that far away, I've walked it as I'm sure have a few people reading this... fabulous start, an orange and four blues. Not only that, but the highest of those blues was a tenner, which might be relevant if this board turns.

ACCIDENTAL PRODUCT PLACEMENT!! (At least, I think Viagra is still a patented brand name!) At some point, the forum should compile the complete list of accidental product placement on the show - I remember the Angel Delight mention in Limbo Alex's game, albeit mostly because after the Deal that game turned into a televisual character assassination over a very good decision. Anyway, turning down eleven grand here is also a very good decision, decent as it is for an opener; revealing that you've not had a five-figure sum in your bank account, that is not a very good decision, the Banker can instantly assume very high risk-aversion if this board stays strong.

Which it pretty much does through round two, despite the second-highest amount going; the offer is predictably rubbish. Round three, and it's still strong, but now there's nothing between £3,000 and £35,000. Third-offer Deal would be very easy to enforce here, but the producer doesn't want one, so only deigns to offer twelve grand. One of his many siblings suggests eight-box as the time to go, and modulo another forcing offer he'll be right.

Blue! Another blue! Aah, there's the expected big hit, but it's still fine, two Power 5 backups for the jackpot. Twenty grand, surely? Yup. What, he turned it down? The right decision mathematically, yes; the right decision for him, after his 17-box remark, that I'm not so sure of. Producer thinks there's a £50,000 target? Wildly ambitious if so...

Boom. Last box as well. Seven grand bailout, he says it'll get him out of debt, he promptly takes it, and I do wonder what made him play on at eight-box. I really hope it came from within and not from without.

Oh crumbs it would have been the recovery, and the offer conveniently goes the other side of twenty grand - which in live play it wouldn't have done - to make sure it's perceived as a premature Deal, not a too-late Deal. Blue on the table provides a feel-good ending at least.

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matt26

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 10:09 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl

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KP wrote:
Oh crumbs it would have been the recovery, and the offer conveniently goes the other side of twenty grand - which in live play it wouldn't have done - to make sure it's perceived as a premature Deal, not a too-late Deal. Blue on the table provides a feel-good ending at least.


Clare yesterday got offered £26,000 with £750 as a blue instead of £50. It doesn't seem that inflated...

Nonetheless, an enjoyable game. Yes, it turned out to be the wrong decision game wise, but it was perfectly justifiable to do what he did. Enjoy the £7,000! :D


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2009 11:53 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl

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Carl did okay i thought, the only criticisms you can really make are with the benefit of hindsight. The 5 box deal was a good bail out, after what was a highly damaging round and really he was just unlucky not to hit the £75k in the proveout.

Some good humour too - don't know what to make of the shopping anecdote (Surely nowhere has half day closing in this day and age?) and it was nice to see the return of Monique's ding-a-ling.

Not a classic game but at least it wasn't a trainwreck.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:43 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl

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Not a bad game, but as others have said not a classic, still quite interesting though. The £20k No-Deal was perhaps not the right decision for him, although mathematically a sound one (incidentally and slight irrelevantly, it was not too dissimilar to the first live game I saw at the DF where the player was offered £22,500, took it which a lot of the pilgrims thought was a bit cautious, and she crashed to a 50p/ £1 finish for an OPW! :D ).

£7k was a perfect justifiable decision. My general rule for a 1-box game is if I'm confident the offer will be 3 times more, I'll carry on. I'd evaluate this one quickly, and decide a £21k+ offer was likely with a quick No-Deal to scare the banker, and yesterday proved you can get a decent offer on a blue/ 75k finish if you're bold with your decisions.

Anyway, a nice fun gentle game.

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IrishMike

PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 8:35 am    Author: IrishMike    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl

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Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
the only criticisms you can really make are with the benefit of hindsight.



I think for all the analyses and the probablities etc - that one point sums 'Deal' up for me!! Well said!


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JuliePenguinFan

PostPosted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 12:26 am    Author: JuliePenguinFan    Post subject: Re: 26/11 Carl
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Carl is a legend, just thought he was fab and his brother too, such a great smiley pair! Pity he didn't go away with more but still 7K is not bad for 45 minutes work! :-D

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