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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:49 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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The banker says that Dickie earned that, but he shouldn't push him. Dickie says his realist side is kicking in now, and he thinks of games that have gone wrong previously. Emma says that's a lot of money but it's also an amazing board. Ryan says Dickie knows what he'd do, but it is a lot of money.

Dickie says DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Round 5

Noel says he doesn't think that was a good idea, so he wants Dickie to prove him wrong!! :shock: Dickie talks about the importance of the money for him.

5 - Cal - £50,000

Noel says that's good.

22 - Ryan - £750

"No no no no no no no" says Noel, and he asks who clapped

13 - Bert - 50p

"NO NO NO" shouts Noel

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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The banker says the £50k going stops the offer going through the roof but he'd have rewarded bravery.

Banker's offer:

£33,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Round 6

6 - newbie Monique - £1,000

"NO" shouts Noel!

2 - Kate - £250,000 :D

Noel keeps quiet!!! :suspect:

12 - Rob - £15,000

Banker time with £10 and £20,000 remaining

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Noel says this won't be a spanking but could be a victory still.

Banker's offer would've been:

£8,500

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Noel says Dickie did a good deal.

Dickie has £20,000 in his box 3.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Box 21 with Clare contains the £10

Dickie says that was his daughter's box and he should've opened it first as it only had £10. Noel said he was right when he thought Dickie should've gone on one more round, and Dickie says they've never had anything, and he starts to get emotional! Noel then says he's genuinely pleased that Dickie won £22,000...

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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:56 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Well, it was going so well until the Deal

It's what I call a "No Decision"

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:31 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Another one-post summary. Can I start it by not criticising Noel? Shockingly, yes, as all he says is that we've had rubbish games lately and yesterday wasn't one of them.

'Dickie' has a bionic left ear, a healthy right ear, and now is chasing the final frontier of £250,000. Ba-doom-tish.

And if blue/blue/blue/orange/£100k is an average start then so is blue/blue/blue/£10k/£75k. Always helps that the penny's dropped, especially at the moment. Good stuff from Dickie at the (reasonable) opening offer, saying 'it'll cost the banker more' (than the offer) to get rid of him.

A substantial hit to start round 2, but two blues follow, including, again, the lowest on the board. Eleven grand is not an unexpected offer; Dickie is talking this one up, which is probably good play.

Orange and a blue! Hull Yeah! £100k goes. Hull No! I was playing as Hull on FIFA 10 while this was actually on the telly, spookily enough... dangerous board for both sides now, and a stick would take out a self-assured but fiscally cautious player. Dickie actually justifies his No Deal here with Actual Strategy, which is A Good Thing.

What's with the hometown shout-outs today? Good round though, it was always going to be pivotal and it's gone his way. The Banker is on the defensive, anticipating an excellent Round 5 and Dickie to play on with that momentum, and makes a very good offer indeed, with only one Power 5 backup. And he takes it! Good play all round!

Oh, now Noel goes nuts. This inevitably means that a £50k/blue/blue round is going to lead to an offer of about £44,000. Oh, it's halfway there... and I can't make the next line work. Blast.

HAHAHAHAHA TAKE THAT NOEL. Oh you're going to crow about it even in the final analysis? Oh *beep* off. You started so well and ended so badly.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Dickie played a great game, and it's another kick in the stomach for the banker (which can only be a good thing!).

Noel surprised me somewhat though, when immediately after Dickie had dealt, he said he thought it was the wrong thing to do!

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Brick

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:14 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Amid all that stuff with Monique, Craig and Harry, I realised I actually own the same shirt Craig was wearing today!

The 15k and 20k backups were what pushed that 8-box offer to 22k, and the 250k looking a bit isolated, I don't blame Dickie for dealing really, although there was a case for going on as well.

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:15 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie

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Was that a TPW or a TBW? I know it's usally when the box is sold for more than its value and more than half the peak offer it's a TPW, but in this case the difference between the box value and the deal was a lot smaller....

Anyway, this is where my roots in watching the game made a huge dealer. I much prefer to see a game with today's than people going home with a few coins - especially with a nothing game in the last few days, and on the anniversary of the first ever, which I'm surprised wasn;t mentioned, but shouldn;t be really given Noel's track record of remembering things!!

Even though he could have had £11,000 more, which i think was inflated, it was still a feel-good outcome. Good to see him so happy with what he did win despite Noel's efforts to ruin it, and he was decisive in making his decisions.

Shame he didn't take out his daughter's birthday at the start though! :)

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:54 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie

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James1978 wrote:
Was that a TPW or a TBW? I know it's usally when the box is sold for more than its value and more than half the peak offer it's a TPW, but in this case the difference between the box value and the deal was a lot smaller....


With that scoring system, it doesn't matter how big or small the margin between box value and deal is, it's still deal/ peak offer, so a TPW. Anyway, I don't blame Dickie for dealing there, although I would've gone on one more round I think - and £33k isn't that inflated if you consider he'd have had to turn down £22k to get there (57% of the mean not totally ludicrous with 15k AND 20K there, in my opinion).

By the way, Harry and his 'Hull yelp' is going to run and run I'm afraid, escalating further when another contestant from Hull joins the wings shortly... :roll:

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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:00 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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Thought Dickie (or should I call him Craig?) played a good game, there. At the start, the introduction took so long, I thought there might have been a first-offer deal on the cards! Turns out it was to fill the time after Dickie's rapid no deals.

At 8-box, I felt sure the offer would have been around £16,500 on an effective 4-4 board. To have offered £22,000 is very generous, and one look on Dickie's face could tell he was out of here before he asked for any advice!

To describe how good offers are, relative to how much players can expect to win playing on, I'm going to invent some new language. Using the expected value of a board at 2-box (in this case, the average of all dealable offers), we can compare the offer on the table with the EV, and give it a score of its worth value:

EV++ Significant potential to win more
EV+ Likely to win more on average
EV+= Small gain playing on
EV= Little/no gain continuing
EV=- No gain continuing, can win more on average going all the way in some circumstances
EV- Risk of negative equity on average
EV-- Serious financial consequences playing on

Also, one that doesn't fit into the above category:

EV+- Unbalanced, EV could go either way depending on battle of wills/board stability

So, here's what I worked out...

8-box offer: £22,000
2-box EV: £25,150 (EV+=)

5-box offer: £33,000
2-box EV: £33,300 (EV=)

At 8-box, he had positive expectations, but perhaps not enough to warrant risking £22,000 on. The 5-box scenario that happened this time would be just about right to deal, though if Dickie didn't take this offer, the Banker may have made a higher-than-expected 2-box offer, which he did. (This unexpected EV shift isn't reflected in the stats above.)

So looking at the above, and considering the reaction, it was the right deal for him.

Fascinating info about the bionic ear, no idea that could be done! And good thing you kept Noel in check (bad Noel, naughty Noel!), at least he did something else than go on about blues, and engaged with the players in the wings a bit more. But then, I Bellieve Hull be back to his old ways, Yes I'm sure! :P

Enjoy the £22,000, Craig/Dickie!


Last edited by crazyeddie on Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:02 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie

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The "Harry Hull" thing (I had to be very careful not to mis-type an say Harry Hill there!!), is really making me laugh, especially with Craig and Monique joing in. I was convinced the £250k was coming out of Craig's box there given a biggie usually comes after comedy! :)

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JuliePenguinFan

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:16 pm    Author: JuliePenguinFan    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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yeah i thought he was gonna go on after 8 box so was surprised he dealt then. But 22k is a great lot of money so hope you enjoy every single penny of it Dickie! :smt023

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 11:35 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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I've just realised Workington is near Cockermouth.

Cockermouth. Tee hee.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 11:53 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie
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The 8 box decision was one that was justifiable either way and the proveout offer was probably just about right for a change too.

2 games with £20k+ wins from sensible deals - looking promising after the 1p win.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:03 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie

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The whole Harry/Craig/Monique thing was funny in a slightly surreal way, but that was a fun game in it's own right

Like Noel i had a feeling Dickie had gone one round too early but having said that i did love the way he brushed off Noel's post game guilt trip. You've got to admire that

And the second victory in a row, already i can feel the spirit of the show lifting

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nevadajo7

PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:40 am    Author: nevadajo7    Post subject: Re: 18/11 Dickie

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well done :smt023 dickie


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