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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 5:28 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James

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Good game and made more enjoyable because of system. 10K was a very good proveout offer.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 5:28 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James
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11 - newbie Lillian - £5

James says he's over the moon with that fantastic game.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 5:29 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James
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Well, that's 2 Victories for the players, Season 5 is finally getting off to a good start :)

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 5:30 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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killersbee wrote:
And that round may have let him get away with it for now


64.3% chance of "getting away with it" as put it from 8 box to 5 box. 53.57% of getting away with it from 8 box to 2 box and 75% chance of getting away with it from 8 box to box-opening.

There's a good reason why I have a rule of dealing more than average offers at 8 box in 2-box games. OK, sometimes it doesn't work out but statisically, you will end up with more games like today.

Banker certainly got more generous for offer 4 than for the first 3 offers and it's good to see a sensible deal result in an OPW.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 5:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James
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It's a quick one-post recap today.

Amazing games at the moment? Well, Thursday was sensational, although the one-to-open rule actually spared the Banker a lot of money for once; Friday, an OPW, and by the September standards, that's amazing.

Plumber? Hmm, likely to be self-employed; likely to be earning good money (modulo increased supply from Eastern Europeans lately?), could well be a gambler. Oh, scrub that, he's got the missus in the audience and she's eight months pregnant. One for every box that'll be left at the projected deal time.

Oh god a pattern-watcher. A mere forty months too late. Yes, that's an average start, three from the middle and two upper-middle reds, hints of a bipolar board to come. The Banker's offering a factoid at every offer, and is preparing for an average game, which is entirely sound strategy. Entirely sound opening offer, but obviously rejected.

If his wife's midsection is whittled away as quickly as this board's midsection she'll be chuffed to bits. Eight boxes in, and already there's only one box between £100 and £10,000. Stick? No Deal.

Cracking tempting of fate from Noel, but we have the top two and nothing else above fifteen grand, so a pre-ADP bailout would not be invalid. The Banker makes sure we don't get one.

We can afford ten grand here, even though it means the median is only a thousandth of that; the board is far, far stronger than that implies. We can't afford fifteen grand <i>as well</i>, unless we get a nice bailout for keeping the top two to the ADP, or are chasing the six-figure sums anyway. Simon says low teens, Alex says twenty grand, Banker says... mid-teens. Fair enough. I'd either turn this down quickly or not at all, any dithering and the Banker will punish me on either one-box configuration. Banker wants the missus to force the latter... oh he's forcing the deliberation with extra random facts. Brilliant strategy, making any ND a long-winded one to facilitate a cheap five-box buyout. Given that, and the timing, a Deal here is wise.

There goes the jackpot! Two blues went with it... ten grand would have been the kind of five-box bailout I'd have wanted in order to gamble at eight... OPW! At the last moment? Would we have got a Banker's Gamble on the blue/£100k finish, or a guilt trip? Given the five-box offer, the latter seems likely; if it had been £NO_DEAL at five-box, I'd have anticipated the former.

So October so far has seen a partial crash from an almost impregnable position, followed by two OPWs from Dealing on high-volatility boards. Not a good month for gambling so far.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 7:50 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James
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What a use of the word "impregnable" :lol:

And yet again, KB would have crashed! :P

Great game...it's ALWAYS dangerous when it's only the £100,000 and £250,000 left...enough strength to keep the offers in 5-figure territory, but very dangerous to gamble as even finding the £100,000 would cause a decrease in the offer in some cases!

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James1978

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 8:04 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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When was the last time we got back-to-back OPWs?

Good game that one - I thought James was great and thought he played along very well with Noel's jibes about being the most interesting contestant ever! (I'd better not go on the show as Noel always seems to make fun of Jameses - at least this one did rather better than the last! :) )

I didn't think he'd be a huge gambler given his situation with a little one on the way but the £16k offer was pitched perfectly, with enough scope for big regrets if it went wrong either way. I'm pleased he dealt once I could tell it was giving him trouble as I bet the 5-box offer would have been lousy unless he avoided both biggies if he'd gone on having mulled over it for a long time. I thought £10k at 5-box seemed high but I guess Rob got offered 10% of the one big red on Friday at 5-box with only one orange and the rest blues for company. If he'd made a snap no-deal at £16k I guess he might have got that.

He left it late to secure the OPW too, but great to see people are starting to do the right ting, but like all I would like to see a P5 box win soon, doesn't even have to be the £250k!

Enjoy the money James, Claire and Baby Noel. :D

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:34 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James
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James1978 wrote:
When was the last time we got back-to-back OPWs?


There have been a lot over the Seasons, but I think the last one was back at the start of Season 5

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:51 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James

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Well, it was more interesting than I thought it might be, the system was pretty bizarre but you can't complain about an OPW - sensible move on a high-volatility board, although it was a bit on the low side for me, I'd like something in the 20ks on that board. Those boards are tricky to play, so I don't blame him for opting out, I may well have done the same slightly reluctantly, with no guarantee the 5-box offer was going to be higher hitting the 100k, and a lot of low blues giving a big crash potential.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:18 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 04/10 James

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Great game. the system made no sense whatsoever, but then systems rarely do and it was a nicely timed deal that paid of perfectly.

I think i would have taken that one myself, mainly because the blues were all so small, it would have been a very risky gamble to go on.

Oh, and my mother took one look at his wife's bump and said 'she's having a girl' :ponder:

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