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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:31 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Shell says

NO DEAL

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:31 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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We move on. Of course we do. That's not an offer, it's a speedbump.

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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:33 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Round 3

Russ next complete with more animal impressions :P

18 - £250 Russ

22 - £10 Tracey

That is looking better says Shell.

14 - £1 Michelle

Banker time

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:33 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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...and the blue run has begun...just what Shell needed!

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:33 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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There's the momentum shift. This might even be dealable.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:33 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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That is better and it is all looking mucch better now says Noel. The Banker thinks this is the right offer to send Shell home

Banker's offer:

£10,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:33 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Big-Davey wrote:
h2005 wrote:
Big-Davey wrote:
They're not allowed pens in that studio, what the hell?!?!?! :shock:

I normally had my phone, my wallet, a pack of mints and a bottle of paracetamol in my pockets when I went in the studio. I don't think they'd notice if an audience member had a pen!


Everyone has mints in there! :lol: You had paracetamol coz you looked hungover half the time ;) And that phone had to surely have been turned off to avoid another Semi :P

Unfortunately it was the studio lights that gave me the occasional headache!! And yes my phone was switched off!!

Anyway, the £250k is looking horribly isolated at this point. Hope it stays in longer. And the stuff with Noel's book was rather bizarre!

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:34 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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First 'decision' of the game...but with the oranges there as well, it's worth at least going on to 8-box...

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:34 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Not dealable, not yet, but a significant improvement, and a sign of better to come.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:35 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell

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Oh my!!! I feel a big mistake coming on.


Last edited by Mark on Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:35 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Shell says that is a clever offer, and Vic says it is a clever offer but it is still a good board and they are due a big win. Shell talks about how she believes she has a big amount but she has also seen games blown apart and she doesn't want to push her luck....


Shell says

DEAL

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:36 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Well well WELL!!!

Could KP's dying need for a third offer OPW about to fall upon us...and more importantly save us from the long run of Banker fortune!

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:36 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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:shock: Wow, that deal was a bit of a shock!

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:36 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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It was enough? Wow. Now that came out of left field.

One heck of a guilt trip coming up I fear... maybe she needed that all-blue round a bit later!

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:37 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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The Banker calls back and says he knew he made the right offer and is very happy now... Noel says that Shell shocked a lot of people in the studio... Shell says she is really happy with that amount and didn't want to go home with nothing and knows that was the right deal for her...

Noel calls a break before proveout rounds saying that 3rd round deals very rarely work out for anyone...

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'Take your hands out of your pockets!' Noel to H2005 23/03/09 :P

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Skyline

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:37 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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Mark wrote:
Oh my!!! I feel a big mistake coming on.


I have got to agree with MarkBot... :|

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:39 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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I'm actually pleased she dealt the third offer. It adds a bit of variety to the show's gameplay! However, I think she made the wrong decision, as surely you'd have to hit £250k in the next round to see the next offer drop significantly. Keeping it will undoubtedly see an offer increase.

P.S. It's at times like these that I'm glad we banned certain members just over a year ago. ;)

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:40 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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kestral wrote:
The Banker calls back and says he knew he made the right offer and is very happy now... Noel says that Shell shocked a lot of people in the studio... Shell says she is really happy with that amount and didn't want to go home with nothing and knows that was the right deal for her...


All reasonable. Good play from the Banker to make a round offer that took out a nervous player; correct it was a shock; within Shell's rights to say that if she wasn't prepared to go home with a blue, to take the first reasonable get-out can work.

Quote:
Noel calls a break before proveout rounds saying that 3rd round deals very rarely work out for anyone...


Demonstrably false - the OPW conversion rate is actually lower at the ADP than at 11-box. Frankly, Noel's lies are straight out of the Wakefield school of statistical nonsense, and the name is all too ironic.

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:41 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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With the time left, I predict the biggie will be found...but the £50,000 left to the end for a possible Gamble offered...

...but let's hope for a win!

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...and overseeing The 2010 Forum Wing Line-Up! Check it out in the Contestants section of the forum!


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:45 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 22/09 Shell
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It would be quite the lengthy guilt trip if it were anything else... it could be a £3k/£20k gamble I suppose...

...oh crumbs, a hypothetical lie before the round is even over, just in case it's £250k next!!

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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