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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 1:06 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
gokdan wrote:
Hi all

Dan here from todays show, hope you all enjoyed. There will always be opposite opinions to I still dealt to early, and I was overcautious etc, but surely the aim of the game is to sell your box for the highest offer, or go to the end and hope you have 250k. I didnt have 250k at the end, and sold my box for the highest possible offer, so doesnt that mean I played the game correctly?

I like many of you though after I had dealt, what have I done. I honestly thought I had made a mistake, but the best thing coming from the dream factory is that I had no regrest, there was no if I had done this or if I had done that, I dealt at my highest offer and had a lower amount in my box. A wonderful experience, and many thanks for all your contibutions to this thread.


I agree that you played the game correctly, but not for the reason you give.

The wonderful thing about a random game like this is that the second a decision is made we know whether the decision was correct or not. Contrary to what the show tries to imply it is completely irrelevent what happens afterwards (with the slight exception of the occasional bankers gamble i guess).

So, from simply looking at the "beating the banker" gameplay side of things you made a bad deal. The fact the proveout happened to go your way is irrelevent: in the long term that is a bad deal. The banker wins from you taking this deal.

An over the top example might be: You have £1000. You are offered the opportunity to pick 1 ball from 100. 99 balls are black. 1 ball is white. If you pick the white ball your winnings double to £2000. If you pick the black ball you lose everything. Now, only a maniac would possibly take this gamble. But let's assume for everyone who says "no" that we'll see what happens. Eventually someone will pick the white ball: are we about to say to them that they made a mistake by not gambling? Off course not. Not gambling was the correct decision. We know this regardless of the proveout.

However, beating the banker isn't the sole aim of this show (if it was then everyone should ND every single offer as it's always* +EV to continue). Another side of things is the player's financial situation, and how much money they can afford to gamble.

Another over the top example: I'll flip a coin. You bet your house. If it's heads you win 2 new houses. If it's tails you lose your house.

This is a clear +EV gamble unlike the last example. But like the last example only a maniac would take it. In the long term this is a good gamble, but in the short term you simply can't afford to lose.

And that is why dealing £13,000 was a good deal. You recognised how much the money meant, and because of this was able to withstand the pressure to continue, and deal at a time that financially made sense for you.


*almost always, very rarely he gives an above mean offer


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lcc

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:50 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
Location: west yorkshire
Warnings: 0
well done dan :smt023 make sure you treat yourselfs dont just pay off your debts im sure you will do :-) think most people were shocked by your deal but hey you shown us all and think your girlie was best pleased to :-D xxwell done enjoy your money...


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gokdan

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 4:01 pm    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
Thanks for your kind words LCC. I paid for our holiday and put a little towards a deposit on my car, the rest will be going towards a house for us.

I would just like to point out in case of any confusion, that my debts HAD been paid off. When I said on the show that I appreciated the value of money, its the fact that when I mentioned if someone would have given me 13k when I was in that 30k mess it would have meant the world to me. So turning 11k down was the hardest thing I had ever done, dealing at 13k was the second hardest when I still had the big numbers. But it worked in my favour and it was just pot luck.


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travis P

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 5:49 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
Warnings: 0
Overnight ratings (excludes Channel 4+1)

Deal or No Deal: 1.8m (17.6%)
Big Brother: 1.8m (7.7%)


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JuliePenguinFan

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:10 pm    Author: JuliePenguinFan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:58 am
Location: Edinburgh
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Yes well done Dan, I thought you were being cautious but it paid off and you gave that Banker a darn good old spanking :spank so well done you! Thought you and Lara were a LOVELY couple! :smt057 Enjoy your FABBIE winnings! :smt023 Great you've already put the money to good use! Hooray!!! :smt026

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gokdan

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:41 pm    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
Aw thank you juliepenguin fan, very kind words and Lara would be very happy to hear such kind words. I hope you enjoyed watching it back. I have had loads of feedback from friends and work colleagues, people coming up to me in the street saying how awesome I am etc, its changed my life I think, from just being a regular bloke, to having so much attention, its hard to take it. Just keep my feet on the ground and hide my money lol. Thanks again for your kind words.


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lcc

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:59 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
Location: west yorkshire
Warnings: 0
hope u have a grt holiday anywhere nice????????????


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cool-luke-18

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:51 pm    Author: cool-luke-18    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:57 pm
Warnings: 0
Hope you had a nice holiday Dan and I thought that you and Lara were great and when I first saw you on the show you looked slighty younger than 27.
I can see why it's difficult to hide your money.


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gokdan

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:50 am    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
Thanks for the kind words Cool-Luke. i am actually going on my holiday on Tuesday, cant wait for it I have to admit. Well I am actually now 28 so thanks again for saying I look younger haha, very touching.

LCC - We are off to Sunny Benidorm for 11 nights, stopping at the flamingo oasis, lovely hotel, and I really cant wait.


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Tom

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:51 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
Warnings: 0
I'll be honest here, I thought you made a mistake Dan. But it turned out to be the perfect choice!

I guess it has been nearly 5 months since the last 3rd offer deal (and OPW..).


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lcc

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:22 am    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
Location: west yorkshire
Warnings: 0
have a great holiday and chill out 8) dan :smt023


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gokdan

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:55 pm    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
I respect your honest opinion Tom. I too thought I had made a massive mistake myself at the time, but for it to be my lucky day (which doesnt happen often) was the tip of the ice berg. Your not alone in thinking I made a mistake, but there you go it was just my day.

Thanks LCC, I am sure to have a good holiday (last day in work tomorrow for 2 weeks) HOOOOOOOORAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYY


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lcc

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 2:35 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
Location: west yorkshire
Warnings: 0
woo hoo benidorm here you come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :smt028 :gimme: :beer: hope you dont bump into that mad woman who goes around in that wheel chair :bluelol :bluelol stay safe........ :smt023


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gokdan

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 3:18 pm    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
HAHA imagine that, she is my ideal women though I have to say, picture of health lol. I wont be on here now for a few weeks, so evereyone have a lovely weekend and I shall be back in 2 weeks. ADIOS


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lcc

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 3:23 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
Location: west yorkshire
Warnings: 0
:drunk :drunk have afaboulous time picture of health indeed :bluelol dont stay in that sun to long 8) and bring some back :smt023


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gokdan

PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:46 am    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
Well I am back from my hols, it was awesome, and to make it even better, a Scottish family who were deal fanatics, recognised me, what an easy way to make friends lol


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collydolly

PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:10 am    Author: collydolly    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: West Yorkshire
Warnings: 0
Welcome back Dan, glad you had an awesome time :D

DoND fans are everywhere :D

_________________
True friends are worth more than money
I have visited the Dream Factory many times and I have seen over 50 shows recorded.
If you are thinking of going to a recording you will have a great day out.


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lcc

PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:50 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:35 pm
Location: west yorkshire
Warnings: 0
nice one dan glad you had asunny time 8) it was ovious someone was going to recognize you you allways get that with someone no sun here yet thought you were gona bring some back :-D 8)


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gokdan

PostPosted: Wed Aug 12, 2009 3:49 pm    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
Warnings: 0
I did try to bring the sun back with me honest, but it just wouldnt fit in my hand luggage :)


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:15 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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Joined: Sat May 19, 2007 6:23 pm
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Too early to tell yet! Was a good day yesterday so the jury is still out! :P

You, you'll be amazed at the places people will recognise you!

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