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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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And the strangest thing is the second offer was more generous than the third and if he was going to take the third offer he should have taken the second... isn't that incredible irony that a third-offer OPW comes from a Deal that was arguably still too late for the player's true preferences?

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cool-luke-18

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:31 pm    Author: cool-luke-18    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:57 pm
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I thought that he may have made a mistake but in the end it turned out to be the right decision and at least it wasn't one of those brave gambles that did not pay off.
I hope that a lot of his debt has been paid off and that he can move out of his parents house and live with Lara and his daughter. Best of luck to Dan in the future.

I only remember two people dealing at the third offer and getting a banker spanking. Emma who took out the £250,000 first box but only hit two medium reds along the way to 11-box and then dealt at £17,000.
Bev who dealt at about £13,013 but I don't remember any of the others.


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:43 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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What about Richard, who took £22,500 with the top 6 remaining? I mean, everyone remembers that game, don't they? If only for the uproar it caused on the forums!

Today was not as bad a deal as that certainly, although it was highly conservative in my opinion. But it paid off, and you can't argue with that. I am pleased for him, well done Dan!

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:10 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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Christ there's something about Dans and third offer OPWs isn't there?!?!?!

A VERY primative, yet a very plucky deal too! I actually enjoyed that!

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Skyline

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:05 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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Haha, some people's different views have been made false again.

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:08 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

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Big-Davey wrote:
Christ there's something about Dans and third offer OPWs isn't there?!?!?!



Not only that but Dans, 3rd round deal OPWs AND getting the other contestants money behind the bar. :laughing

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:19 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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I never tire of seeing 3rd-round deal OPWs, especially imaging all the Wakeyist's reactions are priceless! (I was imaging the 5-box offer to be £13,001 until he hit the £100k just before it!)

I too have to admit I thought he'd made a big mistake, with there being the two biggies and some decent back-up, there was scope for the proveout offers to be massive, but I'm really pleased it worked out for him as the money seemed really important to him. He definitely did the right thing removing Box 13 straight after the deal, it was good that the banker couldnt play any mind games over it.

Oh and Noel is useless - he forgot that the 1p/10p/50p round has been done before AND that too was a 3rd round deal OPW like this one too, he keeps harping on about how hardly anyone whose dealt at that stage has made the right decision, so surely he should remember them given the double rarity!! (Poor Melanie, nobody remembers her apart from me.......) ;-)

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:29 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:30 pm
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Hate to say it but that deal was a bit overcautious and he 'got away with it'. OK this is not completely unreasonable like last year and he was cautious but there are too many indebted contestants out there who think that 10-20K is 'life changing' (a term that I absolutely hate).


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travis P

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:32 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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James1978 wrote:
(Poor Melanie, nobody remembers her apart from me.......) ;-)


If you mean Melanie from June 2006, then I also remember her. Actually I remember her more than remembering Richard.


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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:34 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

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travis P wrote:
James1978 wrote:
(Poor Melanie, nobody remembers her apart from me.......) ;-)


If you mean Melanie from June 2006, then I also remember her. Actually I remember her more than remembering Richard.


She was about 395875238572 times better than Richard, that's why! :D

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JS Boy

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:50 pm    Author: JS Boy    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

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alexandercbrown wrote:
Hate to say it but that deal was a bit overcautious and he 'got away with it'. OK this is not completely unreasonable like last year and he was cautious but there are too many indebted contestants out there who think that 10-20K is 'life changing' (a term that I absolutely hate).


I agree. I didn't think the offer was a very good one with the board, but as you say he "got away with it". I do often think though that most people don't give as much consideration to the the third offer as they should and also agree with James about Noel harping on about the third offer ...
Btw what does OPW stand for?


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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:55 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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Wow - the deal wasn't that surprising given his financial situation but to then hit the 14.54% chance of hitting 2 of the top 3 after the deal (and the 9.7% chance of one of the 2 being the £250k too) was a wonderful bit of fortune.

Daniel's game sprang to mind straight away with me too today.

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AnneM

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:58 pm    Author: AnneM    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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Well done Dan on getting it right.


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collydolly

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:01 pm    Author: collydolly    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

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Well done Dan, I for one thought you were wrong to go so soon, I am glad I was wrong :D

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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:02 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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James1978 wrote:
Oh and Noel is useless - he forgot that the 1p/10p/50p round has been done before AND that too was a 3rd round deal OPW like this one too, he keeps harping on about how hardly anyone whose dealt at that stage has made the right decision, so surely he should remember them given the double rarity!! (Poor Melanie, nobody remembers her apart from me.......) ;-)


All the more reason why Endemol should consider a Host Replacement? :ponder:

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:17 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

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Well like most people I thought Dan dealt too early but it just goes to show that the board can go either way. It could have easily backfired on him but somehow he knew when his luck had run out.


It was great to see an open player win, even if it was a very modest amount.

Also great to see Dan obeying the first rule of the opening round swap - open your rejected box in the next round. :smt023

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gokdan

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:54 pm    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
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Hi all

Dan here from todays show, hope you all enjoyed. There will always be opposite opinions to I still dealt to early, and I was overcautious etc, but surely the aim of the game is to sell your box for the highest offer, or go to the end and hope you have 250k. I didnt have 250k at the end, and sold my box for the highest possible offer, so doesnt that mean I played the game correctly?

I like many of you though after I had dealt, what have I done. I honestly thought I had made a mistake, but the best thing coming from the dream factory is that I had no regrest, there was no if I had done this or if I had done that, I dealt at my highest offer and had a lower amount in my box. A wonderful experience, and many thanks for all your contibutions to this thread.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:00 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan
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It certainly was the best possible outcome - rather fortuitous but this is a game of luck after all!

One question. The offer you accepted was only slightly higher than the second offer, on a board that had improved quite a bit with the two blues. Did you feel tempted to take the second offer, and did you turn it down for any good reason besides sensing it would be wrong to leave at that point? (Actually, two questions; did you feel under pressure to play on at the third offer too?)

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In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:00 am    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
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OMG, someone on DoND didn't fail for a change. Wow. That has become ultra-rare these days. Surely this is a historic moment on the annals of this forum and the game itself, as we have been mired in the swamp known as failure for too long now. Last time I checked, it was going on several games or summat. Still, it's nice to see someone get a certified Epic Win for a change. Gosh, I haven't heard anyone say that in a long time. I'll say this, though - it was enough to being me out of semi-retirement, even it is short-lived.

Congrats to Dan, and enjoy the money :)! Let's hope these winning ways continue.

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gokdan

PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 8:52 am    Author: gokdan    Post subject: Re: 07/07 Dan

Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:52 am
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Thanks for the kind words madmark very much appreciated.

Well KP the answer to your questions. I turned the first offer down becasue I did feel under pressure and that no one had dealt at that point before. It was huge to turn down 11k for me, but part of me wanted to cease the moment and try one more.

As for taking the 13k, I was under pressure, I knew how much money I needed, and 13k didnt quite cut it but it was a long way towards what I needed. I thought of other players having bad games and I didnt want to fall into that category, so taking 13k for me, no matter what the outcome at the end, made me a winner in many ways. I thought about the offer for a very long time, the only slight regret I have, is that I reckon if I would have said something along the lines of 'I try to estimate the offers in my head, and I thought the offer was going to be 15 - 16.5k, so I was slightly wrong in my estimation, but I think I would have dealt at that' I honestly think the banker would have upped his offer to around that sum and I could have had a bit more. Having said that, the 13k is still sitting pretty with me at the mo, I have dipped into it slightly, like paid for me and the missus to go on holiday, and stuck a little down on a deposit for a car, but I have topped it up with savings so still have it there and its lovely to see it in my bank account.

Once again thanks for all the comments and questions etc, keep them coming, it really does make my whole experience feel that little much better.


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