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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
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15 - Lois - £50

Noel asks who clapped and tells them to behave!

11 - Dan - £3,000

14 - Simon - £20,000

Banker time with £10,000 and £75,000 remaining

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:54 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
Location: Ipswich
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Hope it's not another big mistake. Should have been more brave to go on.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:54 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:52 pm
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OH NO!!!

Another one who should've gone to the end!

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Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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Banker's offer would've been:

£36,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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Michael has £75,000 in his box 20

Noel says it's come to the table again today...

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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:55 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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£75,000 on the table again! :shock:

Will the mis-match ever end?! :smt009 :smt011

_________________
Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


Last edited by killersbee on Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:56 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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2 - Kerry - £10,000

Michael admits he's gutted...

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:56 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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Yet once again. Should have been thinking more of what was on the table yesterday as it can happen two days in a row.

Ah well, good sum of money won.


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greeny

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:57 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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Gah! If the 10k was in his box, that would have been a technical draw (peak offer being exactly double the winnings), but as it is, it's an OBW. Still, £18,000 is not to be sniffed at, and looked unlikely after that horror round earlier in the game.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:00 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
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Mark wrote:
Yet once again. Should have been thinking more of what was on the table yesterday as it can happen two days in a row.

Ah well, good sum of money won.


Yup. Tomorrow's player should go all the way.

Hypothesis: if box contains £75,000 then tomorrow's box will also contain £75,000.

Base case: box contains £75,000.

Inductive case: next days box contained £75,000.

By induction: box containing £75,000 implies next box will also contain £75,000.

Therefore: all boxes will contain £75,000.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:02 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
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it's been a long time since i've had to use proof by induction (i hated it lol) so that may well be nothing like how it's used :)


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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:03 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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cfd wrote:
Yup. Tomorrow's player should go all the way.


Yeah, only to then have the luck disappear off again

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Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:07 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
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That's a good point. I already proved in the thread for Rachael's game that: "If a game has a missed big money win then the next game will be dogged by poor luck."

This would appear to contradict the proof that the box will contain £75,000 but it actually does not. The next player will simply have bad luck for the entire game until they have a miracle ending where they turn it around.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:10 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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What we need is another Morris, Graeme, Betty or Keran on the show

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Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:22 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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We had one, and she had a blue :)

And not one week after that failed gamble for £75k, we now have two games in a row where a generous late-game offer immediately after a risky £6k ND prevents a £75k box win. Strange little coincidence.

Still, good play from Michael and a good result. No complaints here.

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:46 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:30 pm
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That was like a March 07 game without the guilt trip.

I liked Michael anyway (apart from the come ons/get ins). That 18K offer was generous and really cleverly pitched.


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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:28 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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cfd, you're a legend - that was the best laugh I've had in ages! :D

No complaints about the gameplay either, I predicted more at 5-box than Michael did (I thought £15k compared with his £12k) - but when Noel said it was the highest offer of the game I thought deal instantly. That offer certainly felt like it was out of early 2007, and looking at it I don't feel too bad about big money missed out on if the offer dealt has been good for the board, unlike too many occasions last year when big money was being missed after taking derisory offers! I'm sure Michael would have had no hesitation in going on had the offer been of 2008 generosity! :)

Shame we don't seem to get great offers like that with a blue in the box mind you....except for Emma who no-dealt anyway!

But I'm actually really looking forward to the run up to the summer break, unlike last year, there's about half the wings whose games I think will be brilliant!

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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wokoman88

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:18 pm    Author: wokoman88    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael

Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2006 7:57 pm
Location: Willenhall
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Quote:
Killersbee's Theory Number 1: If a game has a missed big money win then the next game will be dogged by poor luck.


Not exactly true today is it?



EDIT:(cfd makes the point far better than I do :) )

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:02 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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With a 5 box average of £21,600, an offer of £18k would have needed a big gambler to no deal it. Yes, there was a 60% chance of taking out the blue and guaranteeing £3k win but there was also an equally likely 60% chance of taking out the £75k and leaving at worst a win of £2k more than the deal.

The 2 box offer was probably a more diffiicult one for me to decide on than 5 box.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:51 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 01/07 Michael
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Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:52 pm
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James1978 wrote:
cfd, you're a legend - that was the best laugh I've had in ages! :D


Oh, ha ha ha, what am I, Comic Relief?! :roll:

_________________
Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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