Deal or No Deal Fansite and Forum: Welcome to DOND, the home of Deal or No Deal fans.

Deal or No Deal Fansite and Forum: Welcome to DOND, the home of Deal or No Deal fans.
It is currently Tue May 24, 2022 9:18 am Last visit was: Tue May 24, 2022 9:18 am




Deal or No Deal forum index » UK DoND Forums » Deal or No Deal Show Commentaries & DiscussionAll times are UTC [ DST ]



 [ 77 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4
Author Message

Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:34 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Wow. Where did that win come from?

There wasn't really a decision to be made in the game until 5 box and £10k was a perfectly pitched offer. I was assuming that Mel dealt because she wasn't going to risk no dealing on a red/blue finish (of which 4 of the 6 possible offers were going to be less than the £10k she delt).

Her reaction at the end was interesting - acknowledging that there was quite a signidicant part of her that really didn't want to risk crashing to the blue win.

Unlike the last Banker's gamble - this certainly didn't feel like it was trying to manufacture a big win - it was certainly a tougher decision in my eyes that Alice's.

8 player wins in a row now (is that a record for a run of either TPWs or OPWs?)

_________________
Number of visits to see DOND: 19
Number of shows seen: 86


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Now that's an eyebrow-raising ending.

Her comment at the first offer ensured very poor second and third offers just in case she really did have half an eye on getting out before the Acceptable Deal Point, and the crash in Act II probably got to her, to the point where she saw £10,000 as a merciful escape.

Something changed in the following five minutes, and I only hope it was entirely from within, and not from without.

Either way, nothing like a talking point. Endemol/C4 can easily afford to lose £40,000 if it earns them enough extra viewers to earn them more than that in advertising revenue...

Also, this was the perfect time to use a Banker's Gamble. Mean went up a little, volatility went up a lot. However, seeing as in reality each decision came down to whether one was prepared to win a blue, it seems surprising to see a Deal - Deal decision path, and I do worry it was not her true preference. Thank goodness it paid off though!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

collydolly

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:48 pm    Author: collydolly    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: West Yorkshire
Warnings: 0
*Rosie wrote:
I didn't see the game as I was at the hospital, but glad to hear that she went away with a fantastic amount.

Mel was a really nice person, she came over to chat with Colly Dolly and I the last time I went to the Dream Factory.


Of course Rosie, I had forgotten about that, it was when we were on the side seats quite near to where she was, she was so brave and I hope the money helps her with her dreams :D

_________________
True friends are worth more than money
I have visited the Dream Factory many times and I have seen over 50 shows recorded.
If you are thinking of going to a recording you will have a great day out.


Top
 Profile  

Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:19 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
KP

There seemed nothing in the show that indicated any external pressure for her to take the banker's gamble, in fact most of the sweep at 5 box was for her to deal.

_________________
Number of visits to see DOND: 19
Number of shows seen: 86


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:32 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
That much is pleasing. I just sensed from the recap alone that quite possibly something changed within her, and I always worry about changes in that direction...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:47 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
KP wrote:
That much is pleasing. I just sensed from the recap alone that quite possibly something changed within her, and I always worry about changes in that direction...


It might just have been a case that £10k was worth risking to win £50k (possibly following your philosphy). The fact that realised at the end that she could have easily won £1 showed that perhaps she wasn't 100% happy with her decision (although 100% happy with the result) but it was her decision and hers alone.

_________________
Number of visits to see DOND: 19
Number of shows seen: 86


Top
 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:11 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Well, it was a topsy-turvy kind of game with a great start keeping all the top values in play, then a catastrophic middle knocking out the top 3 in consecutive boxes, then a mediocre but more than justifiable deal for £10k... only to then be turned on its head again with the banker's gamble!

It was a gamble that would be on the borderline of the decision making for me, although I would be prepared to gamble anything below £15k on that final 2, and I think £10k is significantly far below it to strongly persuade me into the gamble, and £50k is worlds apart from £10k in terms of utility value. It was still a brave decision for Mel to go for it, though.

The swap not being offered was interesting, if only because it allows the conspiracy theorists ammunition either way. It was just odd I thought that the banker wanted to know whether she would swap before his decision to offer the banker's gamble, as if that was of material importance at that point...

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile E-mail  

rico7

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:24 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 10:36 am
Location: Stratford-upon-avon, Warwickshire
Warnings: 0
That was a banker's gamble with taking imo , but only just.

Really good win, it was nicely set up for a banker's gamble at the end, and what was good is that
it didn't come across that anyone was unduly influencing Mel unless of course it was edited out.


Top
 Profile  

h2005

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:37 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
Administrator & Global Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
I was surprised Noel didn't mention the fact that Alice was the last one to get the banker's gamble. I guessed it was coming though, as at the time of her 5-box deal there was still about 8 minutes left of the episode. Still that was an interesting use of the gamble, although I was very surprised she dealt it after her deliberations over the previous offers! Luckily it paid off though and it was great to see her win £50,000, ending what has overall been a pretty good month for the show in terms of gameplay.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile E-mail  

KP

PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:40 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
I think it was the combination of hesitation earlier in the game, combined with the realisation of 'oh my goodness what if it'd gone wrong?' after the event, that made me wonder.

The edit might've been different if she had a quid on the table... but I suspect not even Mel herself can truly say what caused her to make that decision. All that matters was that she made it and it paid off big.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

nevadajo7

PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 12:50 am    Author: nevadajo7    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 10:45 pm
Location: rhondda, south wales
Warnings: 0
OMG :-D
just watched it on CH4 catch up

WOT A WOMAN :-D
i am bawling my brains out
FAB GAME MEL....ENIOY :smt023


Top
 Profile E-mail  

Bob Loblaw

PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 2:15 am    Author: Bob Loblaw    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Fri Mar 13, 2009 2:23 am
Warnings: 0
h2005 wrote:
I was surprised Noel didn't mention the fact that Alice was the last one to get the banker's gamble.


I must admit, when Mel said "the Banker's Gamble isn't used very much is it?", I thought Noel was going to say "No, Alice was the last person to receive it....and we know how that turned out....". But then he could be accused of unduly influencing the play I suppose.

Pleased for Mel though, she was one of my favourites on the wings due to her smileyness!


Top
 Profile E-mail  

Kaledmutant

PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 10:40 am    Author: Kaledmutant    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 4:32 pm
Warnings: 0
Great result. Well done Mel!! :smt023

Enjoy your winnings and have a great future. :smt041 :smt041 :smt041


Top
 Profile  

cfd

PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 11:07 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
KP wrote:

Also, this was the perfect time to use a Banker's Gamble. Mean went up a little, volatility went up a lot. However, seeing as in reality each decision came down to whether one was prepared to win a blue, it seems surprising to see a Deal - Deal decision path, and I do worry it was not her true preference. Thank goodness it paid off though!


I don't think that decision path was particulary strange, I did the same myself after all :)

Provided I think an offer is fair I'm a relitively cautious player. To me £10,000 was fair on a board that had an average of £17,000 and risked a blue/blue or blue/lowred finish. The deal backfired slightly (not spectaculary, at least it wasn't a red/50k finish), but thankfully we had the banker's gamble save the day.

But the key to the banker's gamble is the show words it backwards. It says if you deal it you are back in live play and you open your box. This is wrong way of thinking about it. As soon as you are offered the gamble you are back in live play. The question then becomes on a blue/50k board: £10,000: Deal or No Deal?. To me this is an easy no deal, hence I take the gamble.


Top
 Profile E-mail  

Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 11:56 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
Warnings: 0
Great game. lovely bubbly Mel. What a great charector

Superb use of the Bankers Gamble. So pleased for Mel that it paid off, and (I think) the most the Banker's had to pay out since Lisa's game, which was what? 4 weeks ago.

_________________
Now on Twitter @Mike_J_Lord


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2009 12:09 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
cfd wrote:
KP wrote:

The key to the banker's gamble is the show words it backwards. It says if you deal it you are back in live play and you open your box. This is wrong way of thinking about it. As soon as you are offered the gamble you are back in live play. The question then becomes on a blue/50k board: £10,000: Deal or No Deal?. To me this is an easy no deal, hence I take the gamble.


Exactly. See also: 'endowment effect'.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Tom

PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2009 11:38 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 30/04 Mel

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
Warnings: 0
Well, what a game! Mel was brilliant, she'd been one of my favourites on the wings.

I had a feeling that the Banker's Gamble was going to be offered but I wasn't expecting her to take it. But thankfully she did and created a suddenly tense ending.

The games this week (NB: Not seen Vera's yet) have been brilliant, let's hope they stay like this.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 [ 77 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4
Deal or No Deal forum index » UK DoND Forums » Deal or No Deal Show Commentaries & DiscussionAll times are UTC [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bot and 0 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Deal Or No Deal

[ View who is online ]

Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Copyright ©2008 dond.co.uk All rights reserved

www.dond.co.uk is not responsible for the content posted by private individuals on this website. The views expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individuals that produced them and not necessarily the views of the owner, or of the admins, or of the moderators of this website.


Deal or No Deal Online Games | Tava Tea Weight Loss | Go Go Hamster | Wii | Wii Fit | Xbox 360 | Playstation 3 | Sunglasses | Wii U Pre-order | Dropship | GoGo Hamster | Kidizoom Camera | Whitening teeth | Admin Zone Directory