Deal or No Deal Fansite and Forum: Welcome to DOND, the home of Deal or No Deal fans.

Deal Or No Deal
Deal or No Deal Fansite and Forum: Welcome to DOND, the home of Deal or No Deal fans.
It is currently Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:39 am Last visit was: Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:39 am



Contestant applications for the 2024 filming of Deal or No Deal are now OPEN! More info here.



New user? Register to join in! Returning user? Login (or reset your password).

Deal or No Deal forum index » UK DoND Forums » Deal or No Deal Show Commentaries & DiscussionAll times are UTC [ DST ]



 [ 120 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Author Message

h2005

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:15 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
Administrator & Global Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
The eggs certainly helped Ollie - the 5-box offer would probably have been about £10k had it not been for the prospect of the eggs. Presumably he'd have no dealt that and crashed to a 1p win.

Another twist would've been to have offered £10k at 5-box with the prospect of opening an egg at the end and doubling it to £20k. Or a Tony / Daimon "banker's gamble" type twist could've come in to play with the prospect of winning nothing or winning £20k depending on whether the good / bad egg was picked.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  

James1978

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:21 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
Warnings: 0
What a way to induce a guilt trip.....but also a genius way of using the eggs!

Wakeyists can say what they like but he still could have missed the good egg and been totally screwed and been yet another 1p winner, which would have been another totally unmitigated disaster - we didn't want another Matty! As least this way he still walked out with a excellent sum of money. The proveout offers were inflated to guilt-trip him, but as Noel seems more balanced these days, I think he might have been saying the same if he'd been seduced by the eggs and crashing. I suppose Stan got offered £20k when he was guaranteed one-to-open at Xmas, and also he had two low reds there so Ollie's £20k offer was much better than his - so I guess from thee the offers had to be high, even though £65k would be reserved for people like Doreen! :)

It felt designed to make the exit point almost impossible to judge!

And I really liked Ollie too, he knew what he was doing, knew what boxes he wanted to pick in order, and he'd been really funny on the wings at times and didn't disappoint.

Oh and the newbie was called Roger, finally a Roger! :D

_________________
Image

"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


Top
 Profile  

Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:41 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
Warnings: 0
Yay :) ! A great game produces a great win.

Congrats to Oliie, and enjoy £20,000 and a hot water bottle :D !

_________________
I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


Top
 Profile  

Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:57 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
A great start to the week after last weeks low wins. Nice psychology by the banker in offering a 5 box offer at first that probably wasn't worth taking and then upping it to one that certainly would have been worth a gamble.

_________________
Number of visits to see DOND: 20
Number of shows seen: 88


Top
 Profile  

cool-luke-18

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 6:59 pm    Author: cool-luke-18    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:57 pm
Warnings: 0
The fifth offer would definitely have been lower if was not possible to have an offer after every box. A similar twist happened with Stan on the last christmas shows, he had a similar board (except that it was a bit stronger, he had £3,000 and £5,000 to back up the £250,000) and he was offered £20,000 on a certain note that he would get an offer after every box.
The stats and odds of taking out the big one towards are this -
In normal play there is a 60% chance that in the final round the player will take out the biggest amount, however with an offer after every box it's different.
At 5 boxes - there is a 20% chance of hitting the big one, 4 boxes - a 25% chance, 3 boxes - a 33% chance of hitting the big one.
Basically if anyone wants to work out the chance's of taking out the big one in any round (or any particular amount), 100 divided by the number of amounts still left on the board times by the number of boxes that the contestant will take out before the next offer.
Overall it was a good game especially with the red card joke as well as the interesting board.


Top
 Profile  

flamedtresses

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 9:18 pm    Author: flamedtresses    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2006 9:40 am
Location: hull
Warnings: 0
well done ollie on your 20k and your hot water bottle. :-D
ollie seems a nice guy and i arent just saying that because hes from hull. i wish him well for the future :-D

_________________
PROUD MEMBER OF THE H2005 AKA DAVID FANCLUB SINCE 22nd October 2006 AND ALSO THE TRUE BANKERS NO1 FAN :)


Top
 Profile  

Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 11:23 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
Warnings: 0
flamedtresses wrote:
well done ollie on your 20k and your hot water bottle. :-D
ollie seems a nice guy and i arent just saying that because hes from hull. i wish him well for the future :-D


Oh he was from Hull was he? I was wondering, he didn't seem to mention it that i can recall.

Well that was one 'Hull' of a game wasn't it?

Real tensions, higher offers than we've had of late and the biggest win in over a week, plus Ollie was a very likeable chap

Clever use of the eggs at 5 box with an offer that makes it very tempting to go on. It was brave of Ollie to turn it down.

I didn't think the 4 box offer was over-inflated as such, there's a history of the Banker panicking when he makes these offers after every box so I wasn't especially surprised to see it shoot up like that. Also it's worth bearing in mind there's less statistical evidence to compare against when it comes to 4 box and 3 box offers so the offers are harder to predict

_________________
Now on Twitter @Mike_J_Lord


Top
 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 11:40 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Remarkable finish to the game, and the 5-box offer was an arguable decision with 1 egg as well as two, but I'd have been scared witless by the volatility and dealt for £20k anyway. Shades of Alice after the first box of the proveout and 1p and £250k still remaining after a deal close to £20k (in this case exactly!) - although I don't believe we would've got a BG again with that finish!

There has been quite a lot of talk about the proveout offers, and there is a game for comparison. I remember Jane's game I saw last year, a xmas special, where the board was stronger at 4-box with 2 blues, £35k and £250k and the offer was only £28k, and she came across as a moderate but admittedly not all-out gambler, and as Ollie is a student who had infered he was significantly in debt, I suspect he wouldn't have got a better offer on a far worse board. Also, the final 3 she had was almost identical to Ollie's, and the hypothetical offer was £20k compared to today's £65k - I mean, I just laughed when I heard today's offer, it was so ridiculous!

Still, great result to sell 1p for £20,000!

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 11:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Good reminder!

From £20k there was only one way to go, significantly up, but £65k was so much of a joke that had I been told it was coming I'd have played for it. It's a laughable proposition for me to turn down £37k on blue/blue/blue/£250k any other way!

£30k, £50k and (if needed at two-box) £80k would've been the offers I'd have expected.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

h2005

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:03 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
Administrator & Global Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
StatsMan wrote:
Remarkable finish to the game, and the 5-box offer was an arguable decision with 1 egg as well as two, but I'd have been scared witless by the volatility and dealt for £20k anyway. Shades of Alice after the first box of the proveout and 1p and £250k still remaining after a deal close to £20k (in this case exactly!) - although I don't believe we would've got a BG again with that finish!


Assuming the £250k was kept in-play to the end, I was expecting the offers to incrase by £20k each time - £40k at 4-box, £60k at 3-box and £80k at 2-box.

Was Alice's Banker's Gamble the last one we've had (excluding the Easter ones which were as a result of the eggs). It's been over a month since Alice's show now, so I'm guessing that's one of the longest periods the show's gone for recently without having a BG being offered. I wonder if the banker's scared of them now, after what happened to Alice? Although I suppose there haven't been many deals / finishes recently which would generate a BG anyway.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  

Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:08 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
We've had the dartboard used as a system once before (Martin about 50 weeks ago in late April 2008) and coincidentally the player also walked away with £20k (although that was an ultra cautious OBW).

_________________
Number of visits to see DOND: 20
Number of shows seen: 88


Top
 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:48 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
h2005 wrote:
Was Alice's Banker's Gamble the last one we've had (excluding the Easter ones which were as a result of the eggs). It's been over a month since Alice's show now, so I'm guessing that's one of the longest periods the show's gone for recently without having a BG being offered. I wonder if the banker's scared of them now, after what happened to Alice? Although I suppose there haven't been many deals / finishes recently which would generate a BG anyway.


Indeed it is. It was clear building up to Alice's game that the banker was trying to push the BG as far as he could to see how generous he could be with it and still get a no deal - many flagged up Michael's game (£8,800 give back for maximum £100k) as an important prelude to her game. Now it's reached its climactic moment with the £250k winner, maybe this particular twist has run its course and we won't see it again now, and they'll introduce another variation to the format. Like how the dream offers seem to have faded recently.

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Top
 Profile  

h2005

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:51 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
Administrator & Global Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
I'm sure the banker's gamble will be back at some point soon. Although I suppose they may be reserving it only for special occasions like with the Easter egg twist.

When was the last dream offer? Funnily enough, the last one I can remember was in proveout and was part of Alice's hypothetical 5th offer.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  

h2005

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:53 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
Administrator & Global Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
Actually I think it might be Rhys' offer last December - http://www.dond.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.p ... 88#p517188

Can't think of any since.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  

cfd

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 2:40 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
I prefer the banker's gamble as a rare occurance. It was almost getting to a point where when considering 5box offers you could factor "if i end on this and this i might get the gamble anyway, so I may as well deal".


Top
 Profile  

travis P

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:18 am    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
Warnings: 0
h2005 wrote:
I'm sure the banker's gamble will be back at some point soon. Although I suppose they may be reserving it only for special occasions like with the Easter egg twist.


I can confirm the Banker's Gamble will be back but I don't know when, but they aren't reserving it only for special occasions.


Top
 Profile  

StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:26 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
Warnings: 0
Don't forget I am speaking as if I haven't seen or heard about any future shows, in which case I have no idea.

_________________
Image

Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Top
 Profile  

bb67

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:31 am    Author: bb67    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:53 pm
Location: Airdrie - Scotland
Warnings: 0
FANTASTIC game! Knew Ollie's game would be great! :smt023

_________________
Image
Lifetime Member Of The Jade Fanclub!


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:06 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
I suspect the Banker's Gamble is on hiatus post-Alice, and just when it is perceived to have gone it will return, probably in a wave of 'first time since Alice' build-up.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

greeny

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 8:49 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 13/04 Ollie - Easter Monday Special

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
Location: Wirral
Warnings: 0
We have Sky+ here in Spain, so got to see this one (and Thel's) and I thought it was a great game, and a great use of the eggs also, and Ollie was very entertaining. I'd have done the same as him as it happens, and thought 20k was rather kind at 5-box (and I'd have picked 1 and 3, the 2 bad eggs!) so it was a good decision for me. Well done Ollie!


Top
 Profile  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 [ 120 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Deal or No Deal forum index » UK DoND Forums » Deal or No Deal Show Commentaries & DiscussionAll times are UTC [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bot, Dot, Google and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Deal Or No Deal

[ View who is online ]

Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Copyright ©2023 dond.co.uk All rights reserved

www.dond.co.uk is not responsible for the content posted by private individuals on this website. The views expressed herein are solely the opinions of the individuals that produced them and not necessarily the views of the owner, or of the admins, or of the moderators of this website.


Admin Zone Directory