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DanJudge

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:06 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Quote:
I'm really feeling that "Hindsight Brigade" phrase! :lol:


It's my gift to the forums, ha ha ha.

The funniest thing is how none of them were there after my game, a third round deal with £100k left. That thread would be twice as long if I had £100k in my box....


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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:09 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:04 pm
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Ten grand's hardly a disaster! He was unlucky to hit the ten per cent chance of the perfect round. That said, given the number of five box or 8 box deals we've had lately we're going to see unlucky proveouts occasionally (and it wasn't really that bad).

Think I'd have carried on but that's me. With these low offer games I'd have wanted a lot closer to the mean to deal - irrespective of volatility.


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rico7

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:14 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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I thought the banker could have got away with offering 5K at 5 box which would have made it a tough decision,
but to get 10K, especially in the way that Russ did, there was only one option to deal.

The banker's gamble could've been used with a blue/75K finish which would've again given Russ a genuine dilemma.

Well done Russ on 10K, the Z-Factor worked for you today! :D

Wondering which of the other contestants will do a star-turn to up the offers. It's definitely risky, and could backfire
next time!


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:26 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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If that was the only increase to be had for the perfect round, there was only one decision to make at five-box, and the fact he'd have won £5k through a two-box No Deal was entirely fitting.

I love Dan's description.

_________________
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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
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Woodvale

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:26 pm    Author: Woodvale    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:31 pm
Location: West London
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Well done Russ, you were a real star not just today but on the wings, with your accent though you could very easily play Rodney on Only Fools and Horses, everytime I shut my eyes i could just picture Rodders.


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taff

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:26 pm    Author: taff    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:14 pm
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Don't wish to appear sad but I actually knew the Tiddly Winky song - our local operatic society put on a panto each year in Sheffield City Hall and that's the song the audience have to join in with! I have to say Russ performed it really well and it was well worth the extra £2500.

Top guy, and enjoy the £10,000.


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DanJudge

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:29 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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wkd wrote:
Ten grand's hardly a disaster! He was unlucky to hit the ten per cent chance of the perfect round. That said, given the number of five box or 8 box deals we've had lately we're going to see unlucky proveouts occasionally (and it wasn't really that bad).

Think I'd have carried on but that's me. With these low offer games I'd have wanted a lot closer to the mean to deal - irrespective of volatility.


Thats why I like these forums, people can say what THEY would have done but still understand why other people would have done differently. That doesn't seem to be the case on other forums. It's usually "He should have done this...." or "She was wrong to do that....".

People are much more objective on here.

Personally, I think that to have a perfect 1 in 10 round and only get your offer doubled (plus a bit) says why I would have dealt. A lot of work for a small gain, but I do believe that as a rarity, the proveout was undersold on this occasion. probably down to the wording of "the next offer will be £2k if it's £75k and £22k if it isn't". I think the fact that the £5k stayed would have meant the offer would be higher, but had to stick with it once he'd said it.

him saying that suggests that he would offer £22k whether it would be £10 vs £75k or £5k Vs £75k. I think the speech came to build suspense over the last box. It works better and is more believable when there are 3 boxes left and the two low ones are low blues. He did this with Jimmys game (edited out though for some reason). I think the banker would have never said that in live play, but can tell a little lie or two when it doesn't really matter.


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cool-luke-18

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 7:03 pm    Author: cool-luke-18    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:57 pm
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I must admit if I was playing from five box I would have chosen box 20 straight away. I would go to the end about 99 percent of the time, so my offers would probably be high if the board was strong or if it was a gamblers board.
I honestly thought that Russ was going to deal with the odds against him.

Was what was said about Russ sending his girlfriend a thousand texts true or a joke? Personally if I was trying to impress a young woman or girl last thing I would do is send too many texts.


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EnglishDevil

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 7:11 pm    Author: EnglishDevil    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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I may be in the minority here, but I'm always amazed how much £2,500 grand can change the offer.

With Russ's 5-box he had £75,000 and the only realistic back up of £5,000. With an original offer of only £2,500 above the back up figure it would have been worth a gamble for me. But give me another £2,500 and I would have dealt like he did.

Perhaps it's more my feeling that the real money doesn't start until 5 figures are in the offer.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:00 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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DanJudge wrote:
angebabe wrote:
i bet thats on Utube later :-D


If it isn't I'll put it there, ha ha ha. I'm assuming he sag it then..... Did it get him an extra £2500 on the offer or have I read it wrong??


Russ' "Tiddly Winky" is now available for all to see on YouTube. Along with added subtitles so you can all sing along (though it's quite easy to learn :lol: ).

Click here to see Russ' "Tiddly Winky" :smt047 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWoF9aGylP0


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James1978

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:05 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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I thought 10 grand was a fabuluous offer for a 1-box game with onyl a couple of oranges as possible consolations if it went wrong, so no qualms about the deal, a few months ago he'd have been lucky to be offered half that! And at least we don't have to moan at the banker for p*ss-taking proveout offers, £22k was rubbish! £10k was the most in the game available for most reasonable players anyway unless you were a devoted swapper (Since I can't see anyone who turned the £10k down also turning down the £22k.) :)

Quite funny that he ended up with Keran's famous finish when the newbie had a simialr name, and also that George wanted him to gamble and it was him who held the huge money!

Glad the banker appreciated the song too - I was worried he'd lower it like in Ronnie's game, which would be a bad thing to happen on such a precarious board. If Russ had been me, it would have had to have been my karaoke rendition of "Killer Queen" - where I sing the "Queen" really high and long!! :D

Well played Russ, and welcome! :)

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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DanJudge

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:46 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Quote:
Was what was said about Russ sending his girlfriend a thousand texts true or a joke? Personally if I was trying to impress a young woman or girl last thing I would do is send too many texts.


Ha ha ha. Well it seemed to work and I guess she responded quite a few aswell.

As for the second gamble, I also would have taken the £10k and rejected the £22k. At 5 box, the drop was too big with a 60% chance that the offer will be £2k MAX!! and a 30% chance that he's going to go home with a blue. I actually think the 2 box board was more stable (which is rare) and the crash from that point is a fairly acceptable £5k.

Love the fact that that clip is on youtube. I'm texting him now and seriously taking the P155, ha ha ha.


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Loz

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 9:04 pm    Author: Loz    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:12 pm
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£7500 was not a good offer. The mean was £16,252. For someone to go to 5 Boxes , should get at least 80 percent of the mean, about £12000 would be fair banker without the song as well. Good luck Russ enjoy the money.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 9:16 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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On a stable board 80% of the mean at five-box is probably necessary. This wasn't a stable board!!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 9:17 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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£10,000 was a good offer and it was a sensible deal to take. Typical though that Russ would have gone on to have the perfect round, but had the Banker truly offered just £22,000 with £5k & £75k then it wasn't worth the risk on a 1-box game to go on really. Russ said he had would have likely no dealt that final offer anyway and so would of ended up with just £5,000 (unless of course he swapped).

I did enjoy the 'Tiddly Winky' moment and it'll be fun to see if the players come up some more little renditions for the Banker :) .


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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 9:50 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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I said whilst watching the show that £7,500 might not have been a deal at 5 box for me but £10k would have been. I'd have though the 2 box offer would have been a little more - it certainly would have been tempting enough for me to consider gambling, risking £17k to win £53k (3 to 1 odds) might be enough to take a coinflip with £5k guaranteed.

Yet another 5 figure win so who can complain about the fact he hit the 10% proveout.

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:36 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Just been texting Russ for a while and when I told him that the clip was on youtube, he was mortified and called me up straight away. Ha ha ha. He said he had to hide behind the pillow when it came on. He forgot about the little spin and point at the end aswell. He is properly embarrassed, but I guess if he could erase the moment from history and be 2,500 worse off, then I guess he wouldn't change a thing. Loved that moment!!

I did ask for my cut of his money (seeing as though I brought up the song on my game), but like me, he spent his cash almost as quick as it took to win it!!

He has no regrets about it and said that he was a little frustrated that the banker offered him a very dealable 10k, because it was enough to make him stop, but part of him wanted a joke offer (Like Jimmys, although Jimmy was 7.5k versus 4 blues) to force him on. Obviously he's glad he got a good offer, but it was clearly a deal where he reluctantly let his head rule over his heart. When it came down to it though, he seemed like he 100% knew that he made the right deal.

Really top guy. One of the best on there. He was a bit pissed off that he didn't get much of a board to play with, but was happy that he managed to squeeze 10k out of a poor game.


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clareclw1

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:43 pm    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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agree with everything dan...russ really has a heart of gold and clare too.

good on u! xxx

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xuenilom

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:49 pm    Author: xuenilom    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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I don't like Thursdays I don't get to see DOND, but I could watch it on Virgin Media thingy.. Anyway I know whats happened now! Sounds like he did well to get the 10k *watches the vid on youtube* :laughing


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granitecitybino

PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:50 pm    Author: granitecitybino    Post subject: Re: 26/02 Russ
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Was that a first ? getting the offer increased by £2500 with a song. It was brilliant though and got him a well deserved £10k from a game which didnt have a lot of luck with the boxes in it....even the proveout continued the unluckiness.

Did anyone else notice that Noel said at the end he had managed to get the offer increased (£7500 to £10000) by 25% :smt009 ........should have been 33.33 %

Anyway......great contestant.......great win. :)


Jim


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