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travis P

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:23 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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DanJudge wrote:
Apparantly I've been edited out, but I slated the bankers offers. I thought they were low. If I had the offers Julie had, I would have got £72k. I play fairly cautious if the offer is fair, but if I think an offer is low (in relation to the board), I have faith in the numbers and I carry on.


Am I thinking right you said on slated the offers "on camera" but the old man didn't ring up on the phone? As most criticisms to The Banker forces him to ring up to confront the player, if that didn't happen that could be one reason why it was edited out.


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James1978

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:27 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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KP wrote:
Congratulations to Julie - what an extraordinary week, four genuinely big wins in a row is remarkable stuff.

I'd have gone on at £42,000 because I could've lived with nine of the ten five-box scenarios and it wasn't that generous in mathematical terms. James1978 would probably have Dealt because of the tenth scenario and I can't blame him.
Big congratulations to Daniel again, for recognising when advice just isn't going to override a player's true preferences. I can't help but think Julie made an out-of-character decision at £25,000 but it couldn't have worked out much better for her.


You know me too well, that's precisely why I'd have been unusre at 5-box - that's the ONLY reason i can think of for dealing! The next-worst scenario was probably mid-teens (£18k probably is a BIT optimistic, Alex! :) )

Anyway, Julie lived up to her other big-winning namesakes - only the one who played from May last year has won less than £33k!!! What a lucky name it is!!

I didn't mind the deal at all as I thought she was going to be out of there a round earlier, I could see she was really nervous. £42k for somoone who works in a supermarket is really quite something. And also pleased to see no banker's gamble at 2-box, I really do think it was overused a lot the last few months, best to save it when it's really effective, as there's no way she'd have gambled. Games like Michael's are when it's used best. Also it'll put off players expecting it when looking at the possible last pairs available at 5-box.

Perhaps a slight mismatch of player and board, seeing someone like Daniel play that game would have been really something, heck, even Nagib! :D

No mention of David's wing-walking though, I was quite disappointed. I bet the non-forum followers won't even remember he appeared in Nagib's game. :(

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:31 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Nagib would probably have Wakeyed it looking at his actual game...

Daniel might well have won £42k through an EIGHT-box Deal that game!!!

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travis P

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:49 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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KP wrote:
Nagib would probably have Wakeyed it looking at his actual game...

Daniel might well have won £42k through an EIGHT-box Deal that game!!!


Nagib would've gambled right to the end, provided he had the same board and box selections as Julie. I cannot see Daniel receiving £42K at that stage, in 2006 yes but he would've offered no more than £30K today and £30K would be the offer for him to decide.

With Daniel's upcoming game (and don't forget I have no idea what the outcome will be) I can see The Banker either going back to his trend he has been doing in the last 12 months or offer generous offers, creating one for him to deal early but if The Banker's luck holds out then he could use that thing called "hype" for the proveout offers.


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Power5

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:57 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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KP wrote:
Congratulations to Julie - what an extraordinary week, four genuinely big wins in a row is remarkable stuff.

I'd have gone on at £42,000 because I could've lived with nine of the ten five-box scenarios and it wasn't that generous in mathematical terms. James1978 would probably have Dealt because of the tenth scenario and I can't blame him.

I'd have found that one difficult to turn down as well. The prospect of £42k turning into bugger all in the space of three boxes is fairly small but real enough to make you question whether the risk's worth taking. And if I do have a bit of targetism it would probably kick in at the £35k-£40k range, those are the kind of amounts I would find hard to no deal if there was any realistic possibility of ending up with effectively nothing.

The below-median offer which is common in such a scenario makes it tempting to go on, it just "feels" like a poor offer when you put it next to the amounts on the board. But opening three from five when there's really big money at stake is a huge gamble, there's such a wide range of outcomes. The configuration of three significant reds with two blues/honorary blues is one of the toughest situations in the game.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:27 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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DanJudge wrote:
Intersting that the average and the offers went up at every stage.

Averages (very approximate)
1st
32,000

2nd
37,800

3rd
39,000

4th
49,000

5th
76,000

6th
125,000

If I weren't at work, I'd work out what the %age of mean was at each stage........


Rounded to nearest %:
1st offer: 25% of mean
2nd offer: 29% of mean
3rd offer: 41% of mean
4th offer: 51% of mean
5th offer: 56% of mean
6th offer: 57% of mean

Forget about Welsh ladies, it's Julie's the Banker should be afraid of now. 5 of them now have won £230k between them.

Can't blame her for taking the deal today even with such a strong board. Let's hope the games where one of the power 5 stays to the end continue for a while.

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Marc EH

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:41 pm    Author: Marc EH    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

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What a great game again. Julie did so well and what a win - £42,000 is massive and imagine what you can do with that kind of money!! Was so thankful she didn't have the 250K too!! :-D

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:50 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Agreed, Marc EH

£42,000 was great because it realistic :)

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:28 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Dan should consider himself privileged at who gets to provide the show commentary for tomorrow's show...yours truly! :P

That means commentary avec la board recaps! :D

Looking forward to it!

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Power5

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:29 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Was that a spoiler? :suspect:

I take it H is banned from doing commentary on the shows he appeared in?

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:30 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

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Quote:
1st offer: 25% of mean
2nd offer: 29% of mean
3rd offer: 41% of mean
4th offer: 51% of mean
5th offer: 56% of mean
6th offer: 57% of mean


Cheers Simon F. It sort of proves a point I made a couple of days ago about how the banker warms up as the game progresses to find that spot, although most games won't have such a linear approach to the sweet spot.

Man!!! Julie and the banker really did put on a good performances, Julies average crept up every round and the Bankers generosity did the same.

Nice game!


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:35 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Power5 wrote:
Was that a spoiler? :suspect:

I take it H is banned from doing commentary on the shows he appeared in?


Nope...I've mostly been around to provide board recaps lately but last couple days I've been unavailable...seeing as I'm also providing commentary, I'll also be doing the board again.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:02 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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That was the most amazing board i've seen in a long time, Julie couldn't seem to hit a red to save her life :P Technically it was an outstanding game but emotionally i had trouble getting into it, I don't know if it was Julie's indecisiveness, or her bizarre decision to sit in front of the table or if i'm just tired but many aspects of the show just washed over me.

Still that is the board every player dreams of and 5 box was probably the best point to walk given it was the first time the board looked genuinely vulnerable. I'm not sure if £42,000 was quite enough for the board as it stood but it was certainly tempting

And i give up - is our David there or not? David mate, have you thought about wearing a low cut top and push up bra? That way Moxxy might actually see you :lol:

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granitecitybino

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:14 am    Author: granitecitybino    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
That was the most amazing board i've seen in a long time, Julie couldn't seem to hit a red to save her life :P Technically it was an outstanding game but emotionally i had trouble getting into it, I don't know if it was Julie's indecisiveness, or her bizarre decision to sit in front of the table or if i'm just tired but many aspects of the show just washed over me.

Still that is the board every player dreams of and 5 box was probably the best point to walk given it was the first time the board looked genuinely vulnerable. I'm not sure if £42,000 was quite enough for the board as it stood but it was certainly tempting

And i give up - is our David there or not? David mate, have you thought about wearing a low cut top and push up bra? That way Moxxy might actually see you :lol:



David is now in E1 position......where Jimmy was and next to Doreen and he opened his box in the proveout and it had £750.


Jim


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:18 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

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Well, what a fantastic board that was, if somewhat mismatched with the contestant facing it. I got a bit irritated that she was saying the early offers were 'fantastic' and stuff like that - £11k for the 2nd offer with the entire power 5 still there is not great, especially as way back in the distant past, we'd have had offers of £25k+ for that board (and '8-blues-in-a-row' Matt got £35k!). I know offers have been on a declining trend, but you could reasonably expect 16k+ there.

Too often a player focuses on the size of the money rather than its actual relation to the amounts on the board. Of course, it is fine to think about your monetary threshold at each stage, but to openly display your delight at a sum of money to the banker is clearly not a great strategy for maximising offers later on, should you go on.

I would've gone on at £42k, for similar reasons to others - 9/10 scenarios are bearable for me, and you're more likely to have 50k or more than not. I think £750/ £50k would've yielded a higher offer than normal, because of the deemed 'courageousness' you showed for carrying on at £42k - maybe 18k+

I can't blame her for taking £42k as it is an immense sum of money, but I do blame her flawed strategy which meant it wasn't more.

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:29 am    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

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Great game, great win. I love it when people win in excess of £30,000.

Congrats to Julie, and enjoy the money :) .

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Brick

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:36 am    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie
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Watched the More4 repeat earlier. Julie might not have been the ideal player for that board but she definitely wasn't another Bonfire Night Martin. She was clearly enjoying the game she was having, and didn't let the 'harder-they-fall' way of thinking (prospect of a big collapse) get to her.

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Tom

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 9:32 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
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£42,000 to add to an already brilliant week. These are good times.


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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:53 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 19/02 Julie

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wkd wrote:
killersbee wrote:
£72,000?!

LIAR!!! :evil:


Agreed! maybe 60k tops.


The above shows how much the show has changed in the space of a year.. last year people would have been saying that 72k was underinflated for that board!

I've completely forgotton how many £1,000/£250,000 final two's weve had but i'm sure £72,000 is pretty normal to be honest :?

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