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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:28 am    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 16/02 Carla

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DanJudge wrote:
Quote:
I don't know it's just a game you can't really criticise someone if they're prepared to win a blue.


Thats true and I agree. I've often said that I'll back anyone who takes a gamble (no matter how reckless) if they can take the consequences. Mel is a prime example, but he has these views about people who clearly aren't going to be happy with a blue. Clear to people who don't even know them in person.


Was Tony one of those people Daniel? I thought at the time of his show he was, and I thought he took it quite well on-screen (certainly better than the Tony who played at halloween who won £750 from a similar position) , but didn't you say he was a lot different off-camera?

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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DanJudge

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 10:44 am    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 16/02 Carla

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Quote:
Was Tony one of those people Daniel? I thought at the time of his show he was, and I thought he took it quite well on-screen (certainly better than the Tony who played at halloween who won £750 from a similar position) , but didn't you say he was a lot different off-camera?


Yeah, I've mentioned it on another post, but he was walking around like he'd seen a ghost all day. I do have to say that I didn't know Tony too long, but I remember at the time, Tony telling everyone that he was going to go all the way. After his game, it turned out that one of the reasons that he didn't deal the good offers was that his pride wouldn't allow him after he'd been telling everyone his intentions. This may not be fully true, because I didn't get this information directly from him, but it was from a trusted source and I certainly saw him looking a total mess all day and night.

I personally, thought it was a bit greedy and had little sympathy. I had sympathy for Steve, because he never really got offered a cast iron out to the game (although in fairness to Steve, he really took it on his chin and was prepared for the consequences anyway), Tony had a few very strong ones and was blinded by the big money. There were only a few characters who genuinely chase the big money and aren't content with £12k-£15k, such as Barb, Mel and Del. The key thing with those players though is that they knew when the consequences were too great and swallowed the pride when they met their limit.

From what I have seen, in terms of what a win means to a player, a £30k+ win is a 9/10 a £12-£17k win is a 8/10, a £4k-6k win would be a 6.5/10 and a blue win is like a -5/10. Thats why I loved KPs comments on utility curves. I agreed with everything he said, but never knew there was an actual theory describing it. This still holds up months after the show.

a £40k win isn't twice as good as a £20k win, which isn't twice as good as a £10k win. Generally, everything above £10k is an amazing win for a player and then everything above £20k is a bonus.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:23 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/02 Carla
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Players are coming in with clear intent of what they want and expect now the format is established - it is reasonable to come in expecting a low five-figure win, as the vast majority of games produce an offer in that bracket, and a smaller majority a win of that scale or greater (the long-run median win is about thirteen grand).

As such - applying prospect theory, an extension/repudiation of simple expected utility theory - we can say that contestants have a reference point of maybe ten grand. Anything below that is treated as a loss, and losses get chased; however, if you're guaranteed a 'win' (i.e. you have a five-figure offer) and can still face a 'loss' (i.e. win a blue or four-figure 'orange', as I call those low reds), you are going to be significantly more risk-averse. However, with a significant guarantee that risk-aversion declines disproportionately. This pattern has held up in studies of international DoND (see here, but don't worry too much about the maths as it actually mostly goes over my head to be quite honest).

However, what we have that these versions do not is an edit - and a host - who is overtly supportive of risk-taking. Little truisms like 'play the game' become subtly ingrained; DoND is a deceptively complex game, and the host holds a certain authority status within it which carries plenty of responsibility. As you know, it is my opinion he does not uphold that responsibility to either the contestants or the watching millions (although for the far more important latter point, the edit is at least as much to blame). The game becomes very subtly 'framed' in different ways. Historians of the game like the people here will (or at least should) note the creeping change of phraseology from Noel in 2006 from 'timing' to 'courage', and the increased generosity offers rejected as this process occurs, reaching its delusionary zenith in the first quarter of 2007. It took a major recession - and one directly attributable to irrational financial risk, to boot - for the players to change, and what exists now feels to me almost like a battle of wits in which at least one side does not know they're fighting; the contestants come with a plan and intend to stick to it, the production team have their more Wakeyist ideals for the show, and are sufficiently subtle that they can claim some victories. However, because their 'victory' in Tony's case caused such immense regret, more than twenty other people came away with the overwhelming desire of 'this is not going to happen to me', and any attempts to induce Wakeyism from there were not going to work for quite a while.

Feel free to respond/correct/add, Daniel...

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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rico7

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:33 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 16/02 Carla
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KP wrote:
Players are coming in with clear intent of what they want and expect now the format is established - it is reasonable to come in expecting a low five-figure win, as the vast majority of games produce an offer in that bracket, and a smaller majority a win of that scale or greater (the long-run median win is about thirteen grand).

However, what we have that these versions do not is an edit - and a host - who is overtly supportive of risk-taking. Little truisms like 'play the game' become subtly ingrained; DoND is a deceptively complex game, and the host holds a certain authority status within it which carries plenty of responsibility. As you know, it is my opinion he does not uphold that responsibility to either the contestants or the watching millions (although for the far more important latter point, the edit is at least as much to blame). The game becomes very subtly 'framed' in different ways. Historians of the game like the people here will (or at least should) note the creeping change of phraseology from Noel in 2006 from 'timing' to 'courage', and the increased generosity offers rejected as this process occurs, reaching its delusionary zenith in the first quarter of 2007. It took a major recession - and one directly attributable to irrational financial risk, to boot - for the players to change, and what exists now feels to me almost like a battle of wits in which at least one side does not know they're fighting; the contestants come with a plan and intend to stick to it, the production team have their more Wakeyist ideals for the show, and are sufficiently subtle that they can claim some victories. However, because their 'victory' in Tony's case caused such immense regret, more than twenty other people came away with the overwhelming desire of 'this is not going to happen to me', and any attempts to induce Wakeyism from there were not going to work for quite a while.


It must be remembered that Noel is most likely actively encouraged to air on the side of Wakeyism contrary to his own preferences by Endemol. Alfonso and Carla won healthy sums of money yet Noel went on about them "blowing an opportunity" something he would most likely not have done in the early days of DOND. At least the offers are generally healthy enough for contestants not to be forced to the end (in most cases), although it won't surprise me if this changes if we continue to see too many moderate 4-5 figure sum wins for the producers' liking.

In fairness to Noel he gave some balanced advice to Nagib yesterday with the 8 box 15K offer, and with the courage of Nagib going on against the odds to win £26,000, mentioning what he wanted to do with the money selflessly, would Noel have said that "another great opportunity has been blown" had £100,000 been at the table? I'd like to think not.

I enjoy seeing the banker beaten and the contestant happy with what they've won which in reality means dealing sensibly most of the time. Some time back I did a thread analysing when the optimum time to deal (or not) was in the game in general terms based upon the stats of hundreds of shows, and the 5 box stage came out the clear winner by a comfortable margin, followed by 8 box. Going to the end gives you only a 6/22 chance of winning more than the average amount won. Pure Wakeyism would result in a real downer after most shows! :?


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/02 Carla
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H certainly thinks that, and has quoted from "Positively Happy" to illustrate that notion.

However, a man who has historically held significant creative control over his shows (as very evident in House Party and now Noel's HQ) and is clearly not hurting for money (not irrelevant in this context either) should be in a position whereby he can either demand Endemol do not use him as a Wakeyist pawn, or quit the show. To not do that means Edmonds, an overtly political 'social crusader' figure in recent years, cares so little about the social implications of unequivocally endorsing irrational risk-taking to an audience of students, pensioners and the unemployed in the midst of a major recession triggered almost entirely by irrational financial risk-taking that he is not prepared to sacrifice a career that could easily be revived some other way.

Sorry, no sympathy for him here. If he didn't mean it, he wouldn't say it. He's in far too good a career position to blindly obey Endemol.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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