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I'm not disagreeing with you, Dan, but it's also worth pointing out that there was also no mathematical drawback to taking Sally's gamble. Whereas playing the lottery, the odds are most definitely stacked against you.
That's the reason why I found it strange that people were saying here that Sally's gamble was 'irrational'.
Yeah, I agree with that. I might have been a bit unclear. What I was trying to say is that there was NO value in the bet as a numbers thing (not positive or negative). The thing that tipped her over the edge to take the gamble would have been the buzz of a good gamble, hence giving her a reason to take the BG. I suspect she would have taken the BG even if she would have dealt at £10,500, which would probably drive you insane KP, ha ha ha.
The lottery argument was just an argument that even negative gain bets like the lottery are not worthless due to the added value you get by the thrill of thinking it just could be you..... I guess I was just trying to say that to a gambler, the fact you are gambling is worth something to them, it's not just a numbers thing, it's a thrill thing. I've put £200 on black at roulette, knowing that the value of this bet is really only £197.29 (get half back if it hits zero). Another case for why certain bets, even ones that make no mathematical sense is fine if it is a one off. The thrill of waiting for the number to come in is well worth the £2.71 loss.
I really like this site, it's really interesting to see how people approach the game and as i said to people on the show, it is the simplest game in the world, but it has a degree of complexity beneath it's skin that makes it so interesting. Utility curves (thanks for that KP), risk/reward/ psychology.......