03/02 Sally

Wow, well that was certainly interesting.

That was a decent game. Sally seemed a lovely lady. That £10k offer at 5-box was brilliant for the board, and I would have taken it with no regrets. I wasn't expecting the second bankers gamble but it certainly added a little bit of tension to the game. It would have been great if it had worked out but as Dan has said, she was happy with the result...

And at the end of the day, thats all you can really ask for..

DanJudge wrote:

I chatted to Sally after the game, as I do with everyone. Anyone who has dealt, I will normally tell them either well done if they beat the banker or if they happened to have missed the big money by dealing, I drummed it into there head that any deal a player makes is almost always the right deal. You deal at the moment you deal. Everything afterwards is unknown and we only see the game played out one way, but it could have gone so many other ways. Usually when someone misses out on the bigger money, they still sort of have it in their head (although as stated before, this usually lasts about an hour). With Sally, she was 100% behind her decision, she knew what she was doing and had zero regrets. The cameras showed as much.

Her and her husband were particularly happy to be part of the experience (even more than most) and although she may not have been the most vocal, that isn't really her character, she seemed to enjoy the experience even more than anyone else I met whilst down there.

The decision to take the bankers gamble was definitely not brought on by anyone other than herself and Ernie and he summed up their thoughts exactly when he simply said "5k is enough for me". She had a gamble, I don't think the money really mattered too much, she was enjoying her time as she had done for her entire stay in Bristol. There would have definitely been no thoughts of BG when she dealt.

Really enjoyed the game for that reason. She wanted to play the game more than she wanted to win big. She never got downhearted and although she made a decision that I wouldn't have made (BG), she played the game exactly as she wanted to and if she had the same decision, I know she would take the same route.

Her outlook on the game was fantastic, I just wish she had won her final little flutter.....

It's so great to have your insight current games Daniel. Like you, I didn't agree with her taking the banker's gamble but there is an equally valid argument that you have £5k guaranteed so why not take a gamble, especially after the horrible run of boxes she had either side of the first break.

It's good to see some decent banker offers recently (perhaps due to your presence) and also some entertaining banker-tactics at the end of games.

DanJudge wrote:

I chatted to Sally after the game, as I do with everyone. Anyone who has dealt, I will normally tell them either well done if they beat the banker or if they happened to have missed the big money by dealing, I drummed it into there head that any deal a player makes is almost always the right deal. You deal at the moment you deal. Everything afterwards is unknown and we only see the game played out one way, but it could have gone so many other ways. Usually when someone misses out on the bigger money, they still sort of have it in their head (although as stated before, this usually lasts about an hour). With Sally, she was 100% behind her decision, she knew what she was doing and had zero regrets. The cameras showed as much.

Her and her husband were particularly happy to be part of the experience (even more than most) and although she may not have been the most vocal, that isn't really her character, she seemed to enjoy the experience even more than anyone else I met whilst down there.

The decision to take the bankers gamble was definitely not brought on by anyone other than herself and Ernie and he summed up their thoughts exactly when he simply said "5k is enough for me". She had a gamble, I don't think the money really mattered too much, she was enjoying her time as she had done for her entire stay in Bristol. There would have definitely been no thoughts of BG when she dealt.

Really enjoyed the game for that reason. She wanted to play the game more than she wanted to win big. She never got downhearted and although she made a decision that I wouldn't have made (BG), she played the game exactly as she wanted to and if she had the same decision, I know she would take the same route.

Her outlook on the game was fantastic, I just wish she had won her final little flutter.....

Thank you for that Daniel, it is so good to have more information after the game

I do not believe that you should swap your box, I have seen more games go wrong that way. But as long as Sally was happy

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Remember what I said about prospect theory? Classic example here. Sally quite possibly framed this gamble as either getting £5k (which she was quite happy with) or getting £15k, partly because her expectations were fairly well shattered by the damage in the second and third rounds. Looking at things from that kind of perspective makes it look like a no-lose gamble, one she could do almost for fun.

**Joined:** Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:04 pm **Warnings:** 0

I think I'd have taken the Banker's Gamble, I mean it's a 50-50 gamble where you actually get an even money price, and perhaps the key thing is that you still go home £5k better off than you were at the start of the game even if you lose. I wouldn't do the equivalent reversal from a £5k deal on 1p/£10k, not that I can really imagine a scenario where I'd have dealt at £5k before two-box anyway!

**Joined:** Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:50 pm **Warnings:** 0

KP wrote:

Remember what I said about prospect theory? Classic example here. Sally quite possibly framed this gamble as either getting £5k (which she was quite happy with) or getting £15k, partly because her expectations were fairly well shattered by the damage in the second and third rounds. Looking at things from that kind of perspective makes it look like a no-lose gamble, one she could do almost for fun.

Which is exactly why she did take the gamble, from what I could see. For fun. A perfectly valid reason for doing anything, really. (Especially something where, to use technical parlance, the Expected gain from taking the gamble is non-negative.)

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

For me, the killer is that you're risking as much as you stand to gain, and that's irrational if one assumes a conventional utility function...

**Joined:** Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:50 pm **Warnings:** 0

KP wrote:

For me, the killer is that you're risking as much as you stand to gain, and that's irrational if one assumes a conventional utility function...

Would you say that a utility function that was linear between £5k and £15k was unconventional, then? (Genuine question.)

**Joined:** Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm **Warnings:** 0

I was anticipating a blue/£35k Banker's Gamble, but it never crossed my mind at the time of Sally's deal about a £5k/£15k gamble being offered instead. Though by 2-box I could sense what was coming.

I had thought Sally was going to accept it the first time so I didn't expect her to decline it. However after the talk about if Sally was offered a swap I was just waiting for the Banker to ring. You can pretty much guarantee that if you talk about swaps etc the Banker will immediately ring up and offer one. Perhaps in the future the Banker should just say that a swap is allowed with a Banker's Gamble.

Despite the result in the end it was still a good show and the whole Banker's Gamble process at the end was different. Just a shame after all that that it wasn't £15,000.

I always thought a swap was guaranteed with the banker's gamble actually, but perhaps not.

Not always, sometimes I think the Banker may force you to stick with your box, although I remember Joanne, if she had gone on, was essentially stuck with the swap, she couldn't keep her box.

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

MisterAl wrote:

KP wrote:

For me, the killer is that you're risking as much as you stand to gain, and that's irrational if one assumes a conventional utility function...

Would you say that a utility function that was linear between £5k and £15k was unconventional, then? (Genuine question.)

Good question! I think it would be, but I can't completely explain why. However, it's very easy to see how one could have an approximately linear utility function in that range, sufficiently so for little things like 'it's just a bit of fun' to cause a decision in line with a linear or even concave utility function in that range, in a way that a gap between £0 and £10,000 might not be.

(Now there's a question. How radically different are those two decisions? Surely not radically, in the context of lifetime wealth?)

**Joined:** Thu Jan 11, 2007 11:34 pm **Warnings:** 0

An enjoyable game today. I'd have taken the Banker's gamble because £5,000 was guaranteed, but I wouldn't have swapped. I also love how the last few players have kept Barbara until after the deal, and she's had blues!

**Joined:** Sat May 19, 2007 6:23 pm **Warnings:** 0

CrazyChair wrote:

An enjoyable game today. I'd have taken the Banker's gamble because £5,000 was guaranteed, but I wouldn't have swapped. I also love how the last few players have kept Barbara until after the deal, and she's had blues!

Reminds me of Den from April-May 2007!

Can't add much to all the detailed theory already in this thread, but I was most relieved when the 1p went so she wouldn;t join her namesake!

I didn't mind the banker's gamble being taken as it was gambling the mid-point of two decent sums of money, put it this way, if someone was left with the dream last pair and dealt £175k, we'd all be disappointed? I suspect a lot of players just think they may as well gamble when you're guaranteed something decent, I bet she wouldn't have taken it on £35k/blue despite the mean being much higher!!

My brain was fried at the end trying to work out how many permutations of player win/banker win there was going to be (especially as £10k had been the first offer as well as the one she originally dealt), but I guess having taken the gamble it was cleared that £15k would be an OPW and £5k an OBW. What would have made fall off my chair with laughter is if she'd said swap the boxes and then refused the gamble a second time!

And and swapping with Box 7 in the last pair never works - Connell, Red-haired Karen and the most famous one of all, Orry all swapping for it (I'm sure there are more I can't think of off the top of my head)...and Swappy Barbara giving it away (and Janine to a far lesser extent)!!!

Interesting game, from pretty much a perfect start to that rolling disaster in the second and third rounds and then a tasty recovery.

I thought the 5 box offer was a good one and well worth dealing. We seem to be getting a lot more respectable offers lately, the Banker seems a lot less inclined to goad people - is that Daniel,s influence?

Have to say i would have taken the BG myself, Gamble £5k to win £5k i don't know why but there's something strangely tempting about that. It may not be logical but sometimes you just have to go with your gut,

h2005 wrote:

I always thought a swap was guaranteed with the banker's gamble actually, but perhaps not.

I think that's why the banker called after the first BG, initially to clarify that he would have offered the swap had Sally taken it as she expressed an interest in the swap for box 7. Given that he hasn't been giving the swap in live play recently, he needed to clarify it so Noel could justify doing the hypothetical proveout swap at the end.

When the phone rang Noel groomed the audience to believe there was another twist, and I think it was that that
prompted the banker to offer the second BG. It was sad that two times Sally had guaranteed herself £10,000
only to get carried away unnecessarily at the end, but as she apparently had no regrets about her decision,
at least £5,000 was decent insurance for her final flutter.

It was entertaining, but I think the second BG shouldn't have been given.

**Joined:** Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm **Warnings:** 0

Well, an interesting game, with Sally taking out the top 4 in 5 boxes and then recovering the situation to receive a very generous offer of £10k at 5-box. I think most of us would've dealt there, indeed that's not the issue of this game. It's the so-called 'controversial' decision of Sally to take the Banker's Gamble from the swapped box, which I think is utterly ridiculous.

People come on this game for a number of reasons. Of course everyone wants the big money, but for some it is more of a priority than others, even a necessity to justify weeks on a game show with a decent money payout. Others place emphasis on the experience aspect, and any chunky money they win is a bonus.

Sally seemed to be just enjoying the experience, and if she did have any aspirations of the big money, those were almost certainly dashed by the opening few rounds. I can't complain about any of her decisions today - her board recovered, she took a generous offer, was given an opportunity to wager her deal, thought "I have 5k more than I came with whatever", and was prepared for the consequences if it didn't work out.

I don't see it as irrational as it was thought out and not any more a ludicrous decision than betting on a roulette wheel at the casino (maybe this decision becomes more ludicrous depending on your financial situation, admittedly). Mathematically she was getting the odds, so I don't see the problem myself, especially as she was guaranteed £5k, and if you're happy with that sum, it's a no-brainer. If you're not, maybe you see it as irrational, but you're working to a different utility curve than her.

To label her play as irrational is ridiculous when in her own mind, she was being perfectly rational and level-headed about the decision she faced. It wasn't obviously reckless play by any means.

Whatever way you look at it, it was very good banker play. Of course it could've gone wrong for the banker and he could've paid out £5k more. But there was a chance he could pay out £5k less, and he hit that chance by offering the swap and offering the BG again... so it's a good day's work for him.

I notice Walter was rather vocal in today's show... I often heard him shouting out things in the background - I wonder what he'd had for breakfast that morning!

h2005 wrote:

Whatever way you look at it, it was very good banker play. Of course it could've gone wrong for the banker and he could've paid out £5k more. But there was a chance he could pay out £5k less, and he hit that chance by offering the swap and offering the BG again... so it's a good day's work for him.

I notice Walter was rather vocal in today's show... I often heard him shouting out things in the background - I wonder what he'd had for breakfast that morning!

Maybe he had a whole banana or two?

Whatever it was, he's changed his message from 'Happy Birthday' to 'Happy Easter', which is just as random and just as amusing. :lol:

Main DOND Site	Play DOND Games	DOND TV Guide	DOND Stats		FAQs	Hall of Fame
Ebay Watch	DOND Merchandise	Be a Contestant	DOND Amazon Store	DOND Blog	Privacy Policy	Contact Us

03/02 Sally

Who is online