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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:52 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Hopefully that's the extent of the "error"...

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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£50
£1,000





Whew! :D

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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21 - Amrik - £15,000

6 - Ash - £100,000 :D

16 - Sally - £10,000

Banker time with £50 and £1,000 remaining

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Banker's offer would've been:

£175

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Well let's sum this up best way possible - it was a perfect win, just that the 1p and 10p were found on the wrong side of the deal! :P

Good game there, and what a start to the week!

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Noel opens Anna's box 9 which has £50

19 - Tom - £1,000

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clareclw1

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:56 pm    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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good game anna, and a great sum of money for a lovely lady!!!!

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 5:57 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna

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yeah I couldn't fault the deal - realistically not much to gain, not much to lose on a stable board over 1 round but I'd always emphasise the latter. good end.


Last edited by alexandercbrown on Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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jamesfish

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:05 pm    Author: jamesfish    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna

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She was a really lovely person i think, although she was a bit older than i expected her to be, enjoy £13,500 anna, you look remarkably like one of my colleagues at work.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:07 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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I missed today's game after coming home a little late, still it sounded like a good game :)

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Skyline

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:20 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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I missed this game because I went for a snow-walk with my friends, but a good game today!
And :lol: at clairecw duplicating the board!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 7:05 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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alexandercbrown wrote:
still worth a risk - she'd still get 8/9K if say she took out the 100K and the 10K as well.


Even if the other box was the 1p, I think that's very optimistic on a £50k/£15k/£1k/£50/10p board with a mean of £13k.

You could tell as soon as they showed the photo at the 8 box decision that it was going to be a deal. As Daniel put it so well, statistics mean little is the money is good enough for you. The offer at 8 box and hypothetical offer at 5 box were very well pitched today.

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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 8:07 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna

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Really good offers I thought today! Maybe I've just been too used to terrible ones. Can't criticize the deal at all, there were only two boxes worth significantly more and even the 1-in-56 chance of an all-blue round would only double your money, as the banker confirmed (well slightly more but as near as makes little difference)!!. Especially when it was clear the money meant so much to her, I was even half-expecting her to deal the £11k at 11-box, though I didn't realy want to see a 3rd round deal. I doubt she'll have any regrets about missing out on an extra £4k.

The only thing I think she did do wrong was pick Barbara first box after the deal - it always looks dodgy when someone picks a terminator or a newbie or the death box 22 first box after a deal, I didn't believe her when she tried to palm it off by saying Barbara was due to change! :)

She might have got the OPW if she'd done that with Barbara having the 1p.......

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 8:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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No complaints about that decision - genuinely not sure what I'd have done there, and if I'd known I could take out £50k with two blues and get a moderately significant increase I'd have been much more tempted to play on. (I would have anticipated a stick for that kind of round, and I'd still have been very tempted to Deal even though I tend to chase £100k more than £250k...)

The sixth round collapse was thoroughly pleasing given the generosity (fallacy?) of the quoted five-box offer, and all told it was a good result.

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Brick

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:58 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Good show today, the early offers were quite generous so kudos to Anna for not letting herself be read by the banker and going at the first opportunity. Must have been frustrating though with the bottom two not budging until just after she dealt! There was an argument either way for dealing, with similar amounts on the board I might well have played on there myself but I'd have dealt at 5-box if I did.

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rico7

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 11:26 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Anna was a great contestant. I enjoyed the poem at the start, and I think her deal was a reasonable one,
with a proveout that went a long way to justifying her decision.


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:03 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna

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Definitely happy with that result, Anna came across very well and it's nice to know that her daughter's education is now sorted.

The eight box situation was one that could have gone either way and under different circumstances i might have been willing the player to push on, try and get a little bit more. With Anna though it was so clear how much the money meant to her and her family, it would have been awful if she'd pushed her luck and it had backfired.

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 10:33 am    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna

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The eight box situation was one that could have gone either way and under different circumstances i might have been willing the player to push on, try and get a little bit more. With Anna though it was so clear how much the money meant to her and her family, it would have been awful if she'd pushed her luck and it had backfired.


That was definitely the mood in the studio. I think the deal is maybe just a tad on the cautious side (which by no means is a bad thing when your dealing with that kind of money), but it was clear when she talked about how much the money meant to her that she wasn't the kind of player who NEEDS the big big money. That's why I gave her the odds, but told her that they didn't mean anything as soon as the figure gets close to what she was hoping for. That decision actually took quite some time to come and she asked almost everyone for advice.

Another thing that made me think that she should deal is the fact that once she showed her cards (i.e that £13,500 meant so much to her and she'd never had that money before). That amount, or thereabouts would probably not be bettered by a great deal even with a good round (£13,500 would be magnetic and offers would struggle to break away from that figure). poker faces are needed when big money is offered, because from that moment, the cameras are all on you, they pick up every word. If you no deal after a lot of deliberation, the next round will have to be massively good to raise the next offer. If you don't show how much it means to you, it makes the banker try harder to get you out.

The key to getting big offers in my opinion is to make it really bad TV when the offers are low. Not by being petulant or arrogant, but just by acting like it's the easiest no deal in the world and politely no dealing. DOND don't care the difference between an extra £2-3k if it means they are going to get a player agonising over an offer (making good TV). The banker isn't really trying to save himself as much cash as possible, he's there to make good TV. For that reason, you need to hide your emotions over the amounts on offer. Thats why I think that the theoretical £17,500 wouldn't have come if she would have no dealt (possibly a stick), but if she would have quickly no dealt the £13,500 and gone on to have that same round, she would have got the £17,500 offer, maybe even more.....

You can look into a lot of games and try and analyze every decision, which I love to do as a poker player (Maths and psycology is a big draw for me), but it was really sensible play by Anna and a fantastic win. She was a great person to have on the wings and as the person standing next to me, she certainly helped me settle in. I'm over the moon for her.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 3:06 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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Very good points, Dan - and I would perhaps consider summarising them as 'if in doubt, Deal'. Displaying uncertainty is going to lower subsequent offers, which greatly lowers the 'continuation option' for those not prepared to go to the end (i.e. 99% of those who display uncertainty at 5-box or earlier).

It is quite conceivable that a good player's game will involve anywhere between two and five quietly impatient No Deals followed by an equally rapid Deal (value dependent upon player's utility curve, Banker's adaptation to such a strategy and the board). alexandercbrown might have got a £17,500+ five-box offer in play, and either taken it (I hope and slightly expect) or maybe played on for a probable £50k+ if he left the £100k with a five-figure kicker or £25-30k if he did not. This wasn't applicable to Anna, as she was less ambitious and more uncertain.

As you say, caution is by no means a bad thing in this financial space. If this Deal allows Anna's daughter to increase her social mobility by virtue of being able to afford university education, that's life-changing money, moreso than £35,000 would be to some contestants.

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rico7

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 4:08 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 02/02 Anna
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DanJudge wrote:
The key to getting big offers in my opinion is to make it really bad TV when the offers are low. Not by being petulant or arrogant, but just by acting like it's the easiest no deal in the world and politely no dealing.


Yeah, that's why it annoys me when contestants and others say an offer is good when it patently isn't then no deal. Respect for the banker can help, but too much respect for the offers doesn't seem to do contestants any favours.

DanJudge wrote:
DOND don't care the difference between an extra £2-3k if it means they are going to get a player agonising over an offer (making good TV). The banker isn't really trying to save himself as much cash as possible, he's there to make good TV. For that reason, you need to hide your emotions over the amounts on offer.


This is why we have seen really good 2nd offers because the banker knows the contestant won't deal them, therefore
if it starts to go even a little bit wrong you are more likely to see contestants chase the game with lower offers towards the end.

DanJudge wrote:
Thats why I think that the theoretical £17,500 wouldn't have come if she would have no dealt (possibly a stick), but if she would have quickly no dealt the £13,500 and gone on to have that same round, she would have got the £17,500 offer, maybe even more.....


Although hypothetical proveout offers are usually higher than they would have been in live play. The problem is that some offers really are worth considering even if it does play into the banker's hands. As we have seen with recent shows, if you spend too much time deliberating you are better off dealing because the banker knows he can get you more cheaply. While good TV is the priority, I'm sure that they don't mind saving a few pennies if they can still entertain, and for me the concept of trying to get the contestant out of the chair as cheaply as possible is a major reason why DOND is so fascinating!


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