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DanJudge

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:19 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Yeah, well done Ty. It's a shame she weren't a bit more lucky with the boxes that came up, but either way, she seemd really happy with the money and I know many people would have chased the big money at 2 box, but she made a sensible decision.

Well Done.


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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:21 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:30 pm
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Was an interesting game in terms of offers - the 13.5K stick was a slight surprise and it's a shame the last offer was slightly mean but I don't mind the banker varying the offers. Still she got a few grand out of it.


Last edited by alexandercbrown on Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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clareclw1

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:23 pm    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Nice one Ty, a good game and a good amount of money.
Quite a bit was edited out of the show, i said quite a bit more wen i opened my box but it was edited out :roll: nevermind lol

good on u ty!! xxx

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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:47 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

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One thing about her i was surprised at - I thought "Ty" was short for something but I couldn't think what, but it seems as though that's her full name (as Noel just called her Ty when doing the intro, if the contestant is known as a nickname he usually says what their full name is!) :)

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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wicked stepmother

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:59 pm    Author: wicked stepmother    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Ty IS short for something .... but she would kill me if I told you what :evil:

p.s. it's not Derek :-D


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rico7

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 7:21 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Ty had a great attitude and it was an enjoyable show.

A relatively modest sum but another heartbreaker avoided with a cautious deal.

I was hoping the banker would increase his offer to 5 or 6K at 2 box as it was a brave no deal
with 30% trainwreck scenario, but we have seen offers as low as 3K on a 20K blue finish.

Well done Ty £4,500 isn't bad! :P


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wicked stepmother

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 7:30 pm    Author: wicked stepmother    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Does anybody think she might have blown a couple of grand by raising her claws to the banker at 2-box??

Just a thought ... as we watch it for the third time :-D


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rico7

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 7:33 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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wicked stepmother wrote:
Does anybody think she might have blown a couple of grand by raising her claws to the banker at 2-box??

Just a thought ... as we watch it for the third time :-D


Personally I don't think so as the banker had already had two consecutive offers in the show (£13,500)
and also stuck at £8,800 in Michael's game yesterday (admittedly in the proveout)
I thought the banker would either offer about 5 to 6K at 2 box or stick at 4.5K which he did.


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foxxy

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 9:43 pm    Author: foxxy    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Well done Ty,

I hope you had a really great experience, and enjoy the winnings!

Rob

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granitecitybino

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:44 pm    Author: granitecitybino    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Someone at work today came through at 5pm and started talking about todays game saying she had £100 in her box and she dealt at £4500 so I guess i knew how the game was going to finish.

On watching the whole show it was yet another good game with the right deal at the end......so well done Ty


Jim.


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DanJudge

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 11:34 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Quote:
Does anybody think she might have blown a couple of grand by raising her claws to the banker at 2-box??


One thing that we became very aware of as we stayed in Bristol a little longer is to emphasize a particular number can be a good or a bad thing. For TV purposes, the banker often reuses numbers to get a bit of impact. this can be for silly reasons (Michael yesterday and the theme of 2) or for offers. This can help or hinder. If Michael had got to a position where his board was normally worth £21,000, I have no doubt he would have been offered £22,222, the same can be said if his offer would normally be £24,000

Many times, numbers re-occurred that were quite generous. For example, his offer in that situation may have been about £5,500, but there is a bit of a talking point if he sticks, so he puts it in at £4,500. If the last two boxes would have been £15k and £100, maybe his offer normally would have been £3800, but I think he would have still gone up to £4,500 to get the little talking point. Then it is , ooooh, he's stuck. Endemol don't care about losing a bit extra/less money if it makes the show a little more compelling.

What I'm basically saying is that if he was just talking numbers, it would be rare that he would ever give the same offer, but numbers that have been mentioned earlier or past offers are like magnets and it drags offers towards them (up or down).

This happened all the time and it's a reason why a lot of us never mentioned things like lucky numbers any prominent numbers in stories (unless the numbers were above 50,000, lol).

So in a short answer to the question, (which I dragged on for ages), I don't think her words made the offer stay at £4.5k, it was the bankers/producers urge to add some significance to an offer, rather than an arbitrary number.


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2009 11:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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DanJudge wrote:
What I'm basically saying is that if he was just talking numbers, it would be rare that he would ever give the same offer, but numbers that have been mentioned earlier or past offers are like magnets and it drags offers towards them (up or down).


That's an interesting point. Sticking like he did in Ty's game when really he should've gone up a little bit does make the player think harder. There's a temptation to go on further, because you know the offer hasn't gone up when really it should've done. On the other hand, there's the thought that you're lucky it hasn't gone down, and you have a second chance to take the sum of money you just no dealt.

Well done to Ty for getting a nice sum of money out of that game!

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Joey

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:24 am    Author: Joey    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:59 pm
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Much as Dan's statistical advice has been sound throughout the games, there was one piece of advice he gave today which I think was misjudged, which was at 8-box.

Dan said that Ty had twice as much chance of an all blue round than an all red round. While that may have been true, the chances of an all red round (in this case, taking out the top three amounts, the percentage chance of this he quoted the other day) were so small that the chances of an all blue round were still small.

A better piece of advice would be that if Ty was to go on, the most likely outcome was that she would take out two blues and a red. Or he could have said that if she was to go on, she would have had approximately a two in three chance of taking out one of the two highest amounts.


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:29 am    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Joey wrote:
Dan said that Ty had twice as much chance of an all blue round than an all red round.

Actually, he said that she was TEN times as likely to have an all-blue round than an all-red round.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:31 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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Joey wrote:
Much as Dan's statistical advice has been sound throughout the games, there was one piece of advice he gave today which I think was misjudged, which was at 8-box.

Dan said that Ty had twice as much chance of an all blue round than an all red round. While that may have been true, the chances of an all red round (in this case, taking out the top three amounts, the percentage chance of this he quoted the other day) were so small that the chances of an all blue round were still small.

A better piece of advice would be that if Ty was to go on, the most likely outcome was that she would take out two blues and a red. Or he could have said that if she was to go on, she would have had approximately a two in three chance of taking out one of the two highest amounts.


Dan actually said the chances of an all blue round were 10 times the chance of an all blue round (10 in 56 compared to 1 in 56).

Agree with the second point, no dealing at 5 box only really made sense if you were willing to gamble on a red/blue finish, otherwise there was only a 10% chance of a significant increase (against a 60% chance of the red/blue), which doesn't really need to be approximated as 2/3.


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:53 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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wicked stepmother wrote:
Ty IS short for something .... but she would kill me if I told you what :evil:

p.s. it's not Derek :-D


She looks a little like a Derek now you mention it :-D

Great game, just the perfect way to unwind and get me in the mood for the weekend, Loved Derek's - Sorry Ty's attitude, a little bit feisty / a little bit minxy, and the most expressive face i think since Karina,last October.

Shame it couldn't have been a better result for her but at least she avoided the Curse with that 2 box deal, would have hated to see her win £100.

Be sure to give her a pat on the back from me.

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Joey

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:41 am    Author: Joey    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:59 pm
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Simon F wrote:
Joey wrote:
Much as Dan's statistical advice has been sound throughout the games, there was one piece of advice he gave today which I think was misjudged, which was at 8-box.

Dan said that Ty had twice as much chance of an all blue round than an all red round. While that may have been true, the chances of an all red round (in this case, taking out the top three amounts, the percentage chance of this he quoted the other day) were so small that the chances of an all blue round were still small.

A better piece of advice would be that if Ty was to go on, the most likely outcome was that she would take out two blues and a red. Or he could have said that if she was to go on, she would have had approximately a two in three chance of taking out one of the two highest amounts.


Dan actually said the chances of an all blue round were 10 times the chance of an all blue round (10 in 56 compared to 1 in 56).

Agree with the second point, no dealing at 5 box only really made sense if you were willing to gamble on a red/blue finish, otherwise there was only a 10% chance of a significant increase (against a 60% chance of the red/blue), which doesn't really need to be approximated as 2/3.


Sorry, I obviously misremembered. Still, an approx 20% chance of an all blue round is still fairly low.

Also, Simon, I was still referring to the 8-box situation in my post above, not 5-box. Sorry if that wasn't clear.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:55 am    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty
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wicked stepmother wrote:
Ty IS short for something .... but she would kill me if I told you what :evil:


Is it short for Tara Yolande? ;)

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Tom

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 2:19 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

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Another decent game. I had liked Ty for a while and it was good to see her make the right decision in the end.

It would have been nice to have seen the boxes go a bit better for her but £4,500 is very good money.


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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 2:44 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 30/01 Ty

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Quote:
Dan said that Ty had twice as much chance of an all blue round than an all red round. While that may have been true, the chances of an all red round (in this case, taking out the top three amounts, the percentage chance of this he quoted the other day) were so small that the chances of an all blue round were still small.

A better piece of advice would be that if Ty was to go on, the most likely outcome was that she would take out two blues and a red. Or he could have said that if she was to go on, she would have had approximately a two in three chance of taking out one of the two highest amounts.



When I watched it, I thought exactly the same. Most of the stats I quote are part of a long list of examples and the edit only puts in part of it. I can't remember for sure, but I'm sure I went on to lay down the full spread of possibilities.

Particularly at 5 box. I'm certaoin I mentioned that the only huge improvement is a 10% shot at a perfect round and even then, the offer is only about 3.5 times more. Not to mention the 30% outright loss.

Unfortunately, they seem to only like to put a few stats in there. and they dont like to put the same quotes from me in more than once......


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